The Austin Peay Governors (5-6) will be at home in Winfield Dunn Center when they meet the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (7-5). Western Kentucky opened as a 7.5-point favorite, while the Over/Under (O/U) for the game has been set at 148.5 points. Tip-off is set for 8 p.m. ET on Friday, December 22, 2017.
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers vs. Austin Peay Governors ATS Preview
The Hilltoppers lost a tough one against the Belmont Bruins in their last outing, 75-72. Western Kentucky’s Justin Johnson recorded 16 points and nine rebounds in the contest. Belmont held the Hilltoppers to an effective field goal percentage of 0.462 (below their season average of 0.550). Western Kentucky, on the other hand, had a turnover percentage of 6.6 (better than their season average of 16.1).
The last time the Governors played, they beat the Troy Trojans, 75-73. Austin Peay received a boost from Terry Taylor, who led the team in scoring with 27 points on 11-for-17 shooting. The Governors held the Trojans to an offensive rebounding percentage of 13.6 (below their season average of 26.4). The Trojans also had a turnover percentage of 26.8 (above their season average of 15.4).
This has potential to be an error-filled game for the offense of Austin Peay. Austin Peay ranks 323rd in the NCAA in ball protection (turnover percentage of 22.6 percent), while the ball-hawking defense of Western Kentucky forces the 42nd-most turnovers in the NCAA (23.1 percent).
These two teams are complete opposites in terms of the O/U total. Games including Western Kentucky have finished over 60.0 percent of the time, while 57.1 percent of Austin Peay games have finished under. The Hilltoppers have the sizable advantage straight up (SU) (7-5 vs. 5-6) and a narrow edge against the spread (ATS) (7-3 vs. 6-1).
Johnson has been playing at a high level over the last five games for Western Kentucky, averaging 13.6 points and 8.0 rebounds per game.
This is the first time these teams will meet this year, after the Hilltoppers won the lone game last season, 97-92. The Hilltoppers dominated nearly every facet of the game. They had an absurdly low turnover percentage of 7.7 and a solid offensive rebounding percentage of 31.0. For those same stats, the Governors had marks of 18.7 and 20.0, respectively.
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers at Austin Peay Governors Prediction
Predictions: SU Winner – Western Kentucky, ATS Winner – Austin Peay, O/U – Over
Betting Notes:
- Austin Peay is 2-0 ATS at home, while Western Kentucky is 4-1 ATS on the road.
- The total has gone over in 3 of the Hilltoppers 5 road games, while 1 of the Governors 2 home games have gone over.
- Austin Peay ranks ninth in three pointers allowed per game (16.0) while Western Kentucky ranks 182nd (23.6).
- The Governors rank 45th in assists allowed per game (11.5) while the Hilltoppers rank 142nd (13.8).
- Austin Peay averages 9.2 steals per game, which ranks 13th in the nation. Western Kentucky ranks 82nd in steals allowed per game (6.1).
Bettings Trends:
- Austin Peay is 4-0 ATS with 3 unders and 1 over in their last five games.
- Over their last five games, Western Kentucky is 3-2 ATS with 4 overs and 1 under.
- The Governors have been outscored by an average of 1.0 point in their last five games. For the season, Austin Peay has defeated opponents by an average of 4.1 points.
- During their last five games, the Hilltoppers have scored an average of 79.0 points per game (0.8 above their season average) and allowed an average of 74.0 points per game (3.6 above their season average).
