The Western Kentucky Hilltoppers and Southern Miss Golden Eagles will go at it on the turf at Carlisle-Faulkner Field at M.M. Roberts Stadium. ESPN+ will broadcast the action and kickoff is scheduled for 3:30 p.m. ET.
Betting Preview: Southern Miss Golden Eagles vs. Western Kentucky Hilltoppers
Western Kentucky is projected to play the role of underdog and is currently getting 4 points in this CUSA game. The Hilltoppers are also receiving +165 moneyline odds while the Golden Eagles are -185. There could be some good live betting scenarios in this showdown, and Vegas has set the over/under (O/U) at 49.5 points.
The opening line was originally -6 and the O/U was initially placed at 49, so it seems that the sharp action has been siding with the Hilltoppers.
Each team has rewarded gamblers this year as the Hilltoppers have gained 1.9 units while the Golden Eagles are ahead 2.8 units.
The Hilltoppers have gone 6-4 straight up (SU), including 4-2 SU against conference opponents. The Golden Eagles are 7-3 SU overall and 5-1 SU in conference play.
The Hilltoppers are coming off a resounding 45-19 win over Arkansas on November 9Their defense allowed the Razorbacks to run for 253 yards on 28 rush attempts, including three rush TDs. Rakeem Boyd was on a different level for the Razorbacks in that one with 185 rushing yards and two touchdowns on eight attempts. On the offensive side of the ball, Ty Storey completed 22-of-32 passes for 213 yards and one touchdown. Gaej Walker (129 rushing yards on 23 attempts, one TD) and the signal-caller Storey (77 yards on 17 carries, two TDs) spearheaded the ground attack in the win. Jahcour Pearson (10 receptions, 120 yards, one TD) and Lucky Jackson (seven catches, 73 yards) handled the receiving duties.
The Southern Miss Golden Eagles are coming off of a 36-17 win over UTSA. The team’s defensive secondary let the Roadrunners air it out for 325 yards and two touchdowns. Zakhari Franklin had a good outing in the defeat, recording 97 yards on seven catches for UTSA. For Southern Miss, Jack Abraham completed 22-of-34 passes for 290 yards, two touchdowns and one interception. De’Michael Harris (121 yards on 16 rush attempts, two TDs) handled the ground attack in the win as Tim Jones (eight receptions, 97 yards, one TD) and Quez Watkins (seven catches, 137 yards, one TD) led the pass-catching corps.
Western Kentucky’s run the ball on 49 percent of its offensive possessions this year while Southern Miss has a rush percentage of 52.2 percent. The Hilltoppers have run for 123.3 yards/game (including 86 per game versus Conference USA opponents) and have 15 touchdowns via handoffs this year. The Golden Eagles are putting up 131.1 rush yards per game (156.8 in conference) and have 14 total rushing TDs.
It seems like the Golden Eagles might have an edge in all aspects of the ground game. Their backfield has generated 3.8 yards per carry while their defense is allowing 3.3 YPC to opponents. The Hilltoppers have registered 3.6 yards per carry while allowing a YPC of 3.8 to opponents.
The Hilltoppers offense has averaged 248.8 yards in the air overall (264.3 per game against conference opposition) and has 14 passing TDs so far. The Golden Eagles have put up 297.5 pass yards per game (293 against CUSA competition) and have 18 total pass scores.
On the defensive side of the ball, Western Kentucky appears to have the upper hand when it comes to limiting the pass. The team has allowed 138.5 rush yards and 181.5 pass yards per game. The Southern Miss defense has allowed 247 yards per game to opposing passers and 105.9 yards per game to opposing runners. The Hilltoppers are allowing an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of just 5.67 to opposing QBs, while the Golden Eagles have given up a 6.72 ANY/A.
Offensively, Storey has amassed 1,310 passing yards this year. He’s completed 70 percent of his 187 attempts with six passing scores and two interceptions. He’s got a 6.36 adjusted net yards per pass attempt, including 6.14 over the last two games.
Lucky Jackson, Gaej Walker and Jahcour Pearson have collectively accounted for 636 total yards and three touchdowns over the last two outings.
For the home team, Jack Abraham has completed 200-of-290 passes for 2,760 yards, 15 TDs and 10 INTs. Abraham’s ANY/A stands at 8.43 for the season and 7.44 across his last two outings.
Quez Watkins, Tim Jones and Kevin Perkins have collectively accounted for 550 total yards and five touchdowns the last two games.
These two CUSA adversaries did not get a chance to play each other in 2018.
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers at Southern Miss Golden Eagles NCAA Pick
SU Winner: Southern Miss, ATS Winner: Southern Miss, O/U: Under
Betting Trends
- The Southern Miss offense has lost six fumbles this season while Western Kentucky has let seven get away.
- The Southern Miss defense has registered 36 sacks on the year while Western Kentucky has just 19.
- Western Kentucky has rushed for 4.8 yards per attempt over its last three games and 4.5 over its last two.
- Southern Miss has averaged 4.8 yards per carry over its last three outings and 5.0 over its last two.
- Southern Miss has won six of its last seven games SU, with a -15-point loss to Louisiana Tech on October 19th accounting for its only defeat over that span.
