The West Virginia Mountaineers (+12) are set to pay a visit to the No. 25 TCU Horned Frogs (-12) at Amon G. Carter Stadium. Kickoff for this game is set for 4:15 p.m. ET and spectators can tune in to the action on ESPN. When these two programs faced each other last year, West Virginia knocked TCU off handily 47-10.
Betting Preview: TCU Horned Frogs vs. West Virginia Mountaineers
In this Friday Big 12 matchup, TCU has been projected as the heavy favorite and the team’s currently giving up 12 points. In order to take the home favorite, moneyline bettors would currently need to put up $500 to win $100 back on the Horned Frogs (-500). The Mountaineers are getting +350 moneyline odds. Oddsmakers have placed the over/under (O/U) at 45.5 points. If the favorites get behind in the early stages, it will likely produce a worthy betting opportunity in-game.
The line opened at -12. The game’s total hasn’t changed after being initially set at 45.5.
The Mountaineers are 4-5-2 against the spread (ATS) and have gained 3.2 units so far in 2019. They’ve been a good under bet and have posted an O/U record of 4-7.
The lackluster Horned Frogs have lost 5.3 units this season. The team is 4-7 ATS and has an O/U record of 7-4.
The Mountaineers are 4-7 straight up (SU), including 2-6 SU against conference opponents. The Horned Frogs are 5-6 SU overall and are also 3-5 SU in conference play.
The Mountaineers lost to Oklahoma State 20-13 in a game where the passing game was sharp, as Jarret Doege completed 28 passes on 38 attempts for 307 yards and one touchdown. As a team, the Mountaineers rushed for just 26 yards in the defeat.
TCU just lost a 28-24 game to Oklahoma. The defense allowed the Sooners to rush for 366 yards on 64 attempts, including two rush TDs. Jalen Hurts was outstanding, putting up 173 rushing yards and two touchdowns on 28 attempts for the Sooners. For TCU, Max Duggan completed seven-of-21 passes for 65 yards and one interception. Duggan (92 yards on 12 rush attempts, one TD) handled the running game while Te’Vailance Hunt (three receptions, 34 yards) and Olonilua (one catch, -3 yards) led the TCU pass-catchers in the loss.
West Virginia has run the ball on 42.3 percent of its offensive possessions this year while TCU has an overall rush percentage of 57.1 percent. The Mountaineers have rushed for 72.1 yards per game (including 69.5 per game versus Big 12 opponents) and have seven touchdowns on the ground this year. The Horned Frogs are averaging 208.6 rushing yards per game (189.1 in conference) and have 22 total rush TDs.
If 2019 results are any indication, then the Mountaineers might be the more disruptive team in the trenches. Their offensive line has allowed only 29 sacks while their D-line logged 28 sacks. The Horned Frogs, on the other hand, have allowed 16 sacks and their defense has generated only 35 sacks.
The Mountaineers offensive scheme has tallied 256.9 yards/contest in the air overall (269.1 per game versus conference opposition) and has 19 passing scores so far. The Horned Frogs have produced 209.1 pass yards per game (219 against Big 12 competition) and have 15 total pass TDs.
Defensively, West Virginia has allowed opponents to rush for an average of 160 yards and throw for 248.6 yards per game. The TCU D has allowed 203.5 yards per game to opposing passers and 141.9 yards per game on the ground. The Horned Frogs are giving up an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of just 5.62 to opposing QBs, while the Mountaineers have allowed a 7.26 ANY/A.
Offensively, Doege is up to 426 passing yards on the year, and has completed 71 percent of his 55 attempts with two scores through the air and has yet to throw an interception. He has a 7.69 adjusted net yards per pass attempt, including 8.01 over the last two games.
Max Duggan has completed 141-of-261 passes for 1,610 yards, 13 TDs and eight INTs for TCU. His ANY/A stands at a less-than-ideal 4.94 for the year and 5.15 over his last two outings.
West Virginia Mountaineers vs. TCU Horned Frogs NCAA Pick
SU Winner: TCU, ATS Winner: TCU, O/U: Over
Betting Notes
- The West Virginia defense has 31 sacks on the year while TCU has just 20.
- The TCU offense has lost nine fumbles this season while the West Virginia offense has let five get away.
- The Mountaineers offense has produced 10 pass plays of 40 yards or more, while the Horned Frogs have put up seven such plays.
- The West Virginia defense has allowed six pass plays of 40 yards or more, while TCU has given up nine such plays.
- The West Virginia offense has created five rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while TCU has created 21 such runs.
- The Mountaineers defense has allowed six rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while the Horned Frogs have given up 12 such runs.
- The Over/Under for TCU’s previous match going into it was 64.5. The under cashed in the 28-24 defeat to Oklahoma.
- In its last three matchups, TCU is 1-2 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.
- In its last three games, West Virginia is 1-1-1 ATS and the under cashed in each of those three.
- The Over/Under for West Virginia’s last game was set at 56.5. The under cashed in the team’s 20-13 loss to Oklahoma State.
- As a team, West Virginia has averaged 2.4 yards per carry over its last three contests and 2.2 over its last two.
- TCU has averaged 4.2 yards per carry over its last three matchups and 4.7 over its past two.
