The New York Jets (+3) are making a trip south to visit their AFC East nemesis Miami Dolphins at Hard Rock Stadium. CBS will televise the action and kickoff will take place at 1:00 p.m. ET.
Betting Preview: New York Jets vs. Miami Dolphins
In this Sunday AFC matchup, Miami has been projected as the favorite and the team’s currently giving up 3 points. The Jets are also receiving +130 moneyline odds while the Dolphins are -150. Oddsmakers have placed the over/under (O/U) at 46 points, and if one squad can create a bunch of points early, it will likely generate a reasonable live betting scenario.
The game’s total has moved higher after initially being set at 45.5. The opening spread has yet to change.
The Jets are 3-5 against the spread (ATS) and have lost 1.2 units so far in 2018. The team has posted an Over-Under record of 5-3.
The Dolphins have gained 1.6 units for moneyline bettors this season. They’re 4-4 ATS and five of their games have gone over the total.
The Jets have gone 3-5 straight up (SU), including 0-1 SU against AFC East opponents. The Dolphins are 4-4 SU overall and 1-1 SU against divisional foes.
Both teams come into this matchup on two-game losing streaks. The Jets dropped one to Chicago 24-10 in a Week 8 game where the passing game could’ve been more effective as Sam Darnold completed just 14-of-29 passes for 153 yards and one touchdown. Isaiah Crowell (just 25 rushing yards on 13 attempts) provided the running attack in the loss while Deontay Burnett (four receptions, 61 yards) and Cannon (three catches, 12 yards) shared the receiving duties.
In Week 8, Houston knocked off this Miami team by a score of 42-23. The Dolphins defensive unit allowed the Texans to run for 188 yards on 35 rush attempts, along with one rushing TD. Lamar Miller had a productive outing in the win for Houston, accounting for 133 rushing yards and a score on 18 attempts. For Miami, Brock Osweiler completed 21-of-37 passes for 241 yards and one interception. Kenyan Drake (58 yards on 12 rush attempts, one TD) and Frank Gore (53 yards on 12 carries) spearheaded the ground game in the defeat as DeVante Parker (six receptions, 134 yards) and Danny Amendola (five catches, 43 yards) led the pass-catching corps.
New York has run the ball on 46.9 percent of its offensive possessions this year while Miami has a rush percentage of 43.2 percent. The Jets have rushed for 113.8 yards per game (including 42.0 per game against East opponents) and have six scores via handoffs this year. The Dolphins are putting up 108.0 rush yards per game (95.5 in conference) and have three total rushing TDs.
The Jets offense has averaged 213.1 yards through the air overall (334.0 per game against conference opposition) and has 11 passing scores so far. The Dolphins have put up 243.4 pass yards per contest (152 against AFC foes) and have 16 total pass TDs.
On the defensive side of the ball, New York has allowed 114.9 rush yards and 276.9 pass yards per game. The Miami defense has allowed 274.1 yards per game to opposing passers and 143.1 yards per game on the ground. The Jets are allowing an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of only 5.84 to opposing QBs, while the Dolphins have given up a 7.28 ANY/A.
Osweiler likely has the edge over Darnold in this one. The Dolphins man under center has an adjusted net yards per pass attempt 6.66 for the year and 5.89 across his last two outings while Darnold’s ANY/A is 5.84 (and 3.29 over the last two outings).
New York Jets vs. Miami Dolphins Free Prediction
SU Winner: Jets, ATS Winner: Jets, O/U: Over
Team Betting Trends
- The O/U for New York’s last game going into it was 42. The under cashed in the team’s 24-10 loss to Chicago.
- New York, as a team, has produced 2.8 yards per carry over its last three games and 2.7 over its last two.
- Miami has averaged 5.1 yards per carry over its last three contests and 5.1 over its last two.
- Miami has lost five fumbles this season while New York has lost six.
- In its last three matches, New York is 1-2 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.
- The O/U for Miami’s last game was 45.5. The over cashed in that 42-23 defeat to Houston.
- In its last three contests, Miami is 1-2 ATS and the over cashed in each of those three.
- Miami has lost five of its last six games SU, with a three-point triumph over Chicago on October 14th representing the only win over that span.
- The Jets offense has produced three pass plays of 40+ yards, while the Dolphins have accounted for six such plays.
- The New York defense has allowed three pass plays of 40 yards or more, while Miami has given up nine such plays.
- The New York offense has created seven rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while Miami has created six such runs.
- The Jets defense has allowed 12 rushing plays of 20 yards or more, while the Dolphins have given up 10 such runs.
- The New York defense has sacked opposing QBs 17 times this year. Miami has recorded just 11 sacks.
