The Dolphins (+2.5) are set to welcome the Detroit Lions (-2.5) to Hard Rock Stadium. Kickoff for this game is scheduled for 1:00 p.m. ET and FOX will televise the action.
Week 7 Betting Preview: Miami Dolphins vs. Detroit Lions
Miami is entering this game as the underdog and is currently receiving 2.5 points. The Lions are also receiving -140 moneyline odds while the Dolphins are +120. Vegas has placed the over/under (O/U) at 47 points. Some good in-game betting opportunities could present themselves during this showdown.
The Lions are down 1.5 units so far and 4-1 against the spread (ATS). The team’s posted an O/U mark of 4-1.
The Dolphins have been a pleasant surprise for moneyline bettors this season, gaining 3.6 units. The team is 4-2 ATS and has an even O/U record of 3-3.
The Lions are 2-3 straight up (SU) in 2018 while the Dolphins are 4-2 SU.
The Lions enter after a 31-23 win over Green Bay on October 7. Matthew Stafford completed just 14 passes on 26 attempts for 183 yards and two touchdowns. Kerryon Johnson (70 rushing yards on 12 attempts) and LeGarrette Blount (22 yards on 12 carries, two TDs) provided the ground attack while Golden Tate (five receptions, 42 yards) and Kenny Golladay (four catches, 98 yards, one TD) shared the receiving duties in the win.
Miami is coming off of a 31-28 win over Chicago in Week 6. Brock Osweiler completed 28-of-44 passes for 380 yards, three touchdowns and two interceptions. Frank Gore (101 yards on 15 rush attempts) and Kenyan Drake (57 yards on 13 carries) handled the running game as Danny Amendola (eight receptions, 59 yards) and Albert Wilson (six catches, 155 yards, two TDs) led the receiving corps in the win.
Detroit has run the ball on 36.7 percent of its offensive possessions this year while Miami has a rush percentage of 44.8 percent. The Lions have rushed for 97.2 yards/game and have three touchdowns on the ground this year. The Dolphins are averaging 106.8 rush yards per game and have just one rushing TD.
If the numbers so far this season can translate to this game, then it’s looking like the Dolphins might hold an edge in terms of efficiency in the ground game. Their running backs has generated 4.4 yards per carry while their defense is allowing a YPC of 4.0 to opponents. The Lions have rushed for 4.3 yards per carry while allowing a YPC of 5.3 to opponents.
The Lions offense has tallied 279.8 yards per contest through the air overall and has 10 passing scores so far. The Dolphins have produced 239.8 pass yards per outing and have 13 total pass TD.
On the defensive side of the ball, Detroit seems to have the upper hand when it comes to limiting the pass. The team has allowed 145.8 rush yards and 246.8 pass yards per game. The Miami defense has allowed 289.5 yards per game to opposing passers and 118.2 yards per game to opposing runners. The Dolphins are allowing an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of just 6.05 to opposing QBs, while the Lions have given up a 7.22 ANY/A.
Offensively, Stafford is up to 1,078 passing yards this year. The signal-caller has connected on 63 percent of his 161 attempts with eight scores through the air and five interceptions. He’s got a 5.84 adjusted net yards per pass attempt overall, although that number sits at 8.65 over the past two games.
Golden Tate, Kenny Golladay and Kerryon Johnson have combined for 487 total yards and four touchdowns over the last couple of outings.
On the other sideline, Brock Osweiler has connected on 32-of-49 passes for 415 yards, four TDs and two INTs. Osweiler’s ANY/A sits at 8.27 for the year and 7.95 over his last two games.
We’re expecting the Dolphins to control tempo by pounding the defense with their running backs. Along with WR Albert Wilson (316 receiving yards, four receiving TDs this season), Kenyan Drake (164 rush yards, one rush TD, 76 receiving yards) and Frank Gore (240 rush yards, one TD) have been significant factors in the Dolphins’ recent offensive strategies.
Detroit Lions at Miami Dolphins Free Prediction
SU Winner: Dolphins, ATS Winner: Dolphins, O/U: Under
Team Betting Notes
- Miami has lost five fumbles this season while Detroit has let one get away.
- The Detroit defensive unit has 17 sacks on the year while Miami has just 10.
- As a team, Detroit has averaged 4.3 yards per carry across its past three games and 4.0 over its last two.
- Miami has averaged 4.9 yards per carry over its last three contests and 5.5 over its past two.
