To conclude the 2018 regular season, the Bills (-4) are gearing up to greet their AFC East counterpart Miami Dolphins in New Era Field. This early afternoon game will get underway at 1:00 p.m. ET and you can tune in to the action on CBS.
Betting Preview: Buffalo Bills vs. Miami Dolphins
In this Sunday AFC game, Buffalo is projected as the favorite and is currently giving up 4 points. The Dolphins are also receiving +140 moneyline odds while the Bills are -160. Oddsmakers have determined the over/under (O/U) to be 38 points, and if one team can create a bunch of points early, it will likely create a nice live betting opportunity.
The opening line was -3 while the O/U has yet to move after it was set initially at 38.
The Dolphins have gained 2.1 units so far in 2018 and are 8-7 against the spread (ATS). The team’s posted an O/U record of 7-8.
The Bills are down 4.0 units for moneyline bettors this season. They’re 6-9 ATS and have an O/U record of 6-9.
The Dolphins are 7-8 straight up (SU), including 4-1 SU against AFC East opponents. The Bills are 5-10 SU overall and 1-4 SU against divisional foes.
The Dolphins dropped one to Jacksonville 17-7 in a Week 16 matchup where their defense allowed the Jaguars to run for 126 yards on 32 rush attempts, along with one rushing TD. Leonard Fournette had a good day for the Jaguars in that one with 43 rushing yards and a score on 18 attempts. On the offensive side, Ryan Tannehill completed 15 passes for only 146 yards, along with one score and a pick. Kenyan Drake (23 rushing yards on six attempts) provided the ground attack while Drake (four receptions, 31 yards) and Danny Amendola (three catches, 40 yards) shared the receiving duties in the defeat.
Buffalo just lost a 24-12 game to New England last week. The team’s defensive unit allowed the Patriots to run for 273 yards on 47 rush attempts, including two rush TDs. Sony Michel put up a productive outing in the win for New England, accounting for 116 rushing yards and a score on 18 attempts. For Buffalo, Josh Allen completed 20-of-41 passes for 217 yards, one touchdown and two interceptions. Keith Ford (33 rushing yards on seven attempts) mounted the running game as Zay Jones (five receptions, 67 yards, one TD) and Jason Croom (four catches, 55 yards) led the pass-catching corps in the loss.
Miami’s run the ball on 45.0 percent of its offensive possessions this year while Buffalo has a rush percentage of 47.9 percent. The Dolphins have rushed for 109.3 yards/game (including 100.8 per game against East opponents) and have seven scores on the ground this year. The Bills are totaling 121.2 rushing yards per game (140.8 in conference) and have 12 total rush TDs.
The Dolphins offensive scheme has logged 210.6 yards per game in the air overall (168.8 per game versus conference opposition) and has 25 passing scores so far. The Bills have recorded 190.5 pass yards per outing (243 against AFC foes) and have 10 total pass TDs.
On the defensive side of the ball, Miami has allowed 143.9 rush yards and 261.1 pass yards per game. The Buffalo defense has allowed 195.6 yards per game to opposing passers and 116.0 yards per game on the ground. The Bills are giving up an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of just 5.14 to opposing QBs, while the Dolphins have allowed a 6.60 ANY/A.
Offensively, Tannehill is up to 1,724 passing yards on the year, and has completed 147-of-219 attempts with 17 passing scores and seven interceptions. He’s got a 6.49 adjusted net yards per pass attempt overall, although that number is 2.29 over the past two outings.
We’re expecting the Dolphins to control tempo by getting the ball in the hands of their running backs. Kalen Ballage (21 rush yards, 57 receiving yards) and Kenyan Drake (486 rush yards, four rush TDs, 397 receiving yards, five receiving TDs) have been focal points in the offensive game scripts for Miami.
On the other sideline, Josh Allen has managed to complete 139-of-268 passes for 1,646 yards, six TDs and 11 INTs. Allen’s ANY/A stands at a terrible 3.66 for the year and 5.32 across his last two games.
The Bills will also try to control the game’s pace by turning to their backfield. In addition to Robert Foster (412 receiving yards, one receiving TD), Keith Ford (33 rush yards) and Jason Croom (202 receiving yards and one TD) have seen a lot of action recently.
Miami Dolphins vs. Buffalo Bills Free Betting Pick
SU Winner: Bills, ATS Winner: Bills, O/U: Over
Team Betting Trends
- The Buffalo D has sacked opposing QBs 32 times this season. Miami has recorded 30 sacks.
- The Buffalo offense has lost nine fumbles in 2018 while Miami has lost eight.
- The Dolphins offense has registered eight pass plays of 40+ yards, while the Bills have accounted for seven such plays.
- The Miami defense has allowed 10 pass plays of 40+ yards, while Buffalo has given up two such plays.
- The Miami offense has created 12 rushing plays of 20+ yards, while Buffalo has created 13 such runs.
- The Dolphins defense has allowed 18 rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while the Bills have given up 12 such runs.
- The O/U for Buffalo’s last game going into it was 45. The under cashed in the 24-12 defeat to New England.
- In its last three matches, Buffalo is 1-2 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
- In its last three games, Miami is 1-2 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.
- The Over/Under for Miami’s previous game going into it was 39.5. The under cashed in the team’s 17-7 loss to Jacksonville.
- Miami, as a team, has produced 6.9 yards per carry over its last three contests and 5.7 over its last two.
- Buffalo has averaged 4.2 yards per carry over its last three games and 3.4 over its past two.
