In the final week of the 2019 regular season, the Miami Dolphins (+16) are set to take on their AFC East rival New England Patriots at Gillette Stadium. CBS is scheduled to have the TV rights and this early afternoon game starts at 1:00 p.m. ET.
Week 17 Betting Preview: Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots
Miami is a big road underdog here and is currently receiving 16 points by oddsmakers. If the Pats stumble early it would generate a decent betting scenario in-game. Vegas has placed the over/under (O/U) at 45 points.
After the game’s O/U was initially set at 43.5, the the early action has apparently swayed toward the over.
Both of these teams have been profitable this season as the Dolphins have gained 1.6 units and the Patriots are ahead 3.4 units.
The Dolphins are only 4-11 straight up (SU), including 1-4 SU against AFC East opponents. The Patriots are 12-3 SU overall and 5-0 SU against divisional foes.
The Dolphins are coming off a 38-35 victory over Cincinnati in Week 16 where Ryan Fitzpatrick completed 31 passes for 419 yards, four touchdowns and one interception. Myles Gaskin (just 55 yards on 16 rush attempts, one TD) led the ground attack while Albert Wilson (seven receptions, 79 yards) and Mike Gesicki (six catches, 82 yards, two TDs) manned the receiving duties in the win.
New England is coming off of a 24-17 win over Buffalo last week. The team’s allowed the Bills to put up 208 passing yards and 92 rushing yards. Cole Beasley had a productive outing in the loss for Buffalo, posting 108 yards on seven catches. For New England, Tom Brady completed 26-of-33 passes for 271 yards and one touchdown. Sony Michel (96 rushing yards on 21 attempts) handled the running game while Julian Edelman (five receptions, 72 yards) and Burkhead (four catches, 77 yards) led the pass-catching corps in the win.
Miami has run the ball on 36.4 percent of its offensive possessions this year while New England has an overall rush percentage of 41.5 percent. The Dolphins have produced 72.9 rush yards/game (including 69.2 per game against East opponents) and have nine touchdowns on the ground this year. The Pats are logging 104.5 rushing yards per game (96.6 in conference) and have 16 total rush TDs.
It seems like the Pats ought to be the more disruptive team in the trenches. Their offensive line has yielded just 27 sacks while the D-line has logged 45 sacks. The Dolphins O-line has given up 56 sacks and their defense has got to opposing signal-callerss on just 22 occasions.
The Dolphins offensive scheme has tallied 251.8 yards/contest in the air overall (264.8 per game versus conference opposition) and has 21 passing scores so far. The Pats have put up 262.1 pass yards per game (251 in the AFC) and have 23 total pass TDs.
Defensively, Miami has let opponents rush for an average of 135.4 yards and throw for 275.5 yards per game. The New England defense has allowed 191.6 yards per game to opposing passers and 97.7 yards per game to opposing runners. The Pats are giving up an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of just 3.12 to opponents, while the Dolphins have allowed a 7.77 ANY/A.
Offensively, Fitzpatrick is up to 2,930 passing yards this season. He’s completed 260-of-420 attempts with 17 scores through the air and 13 interceptions. He’s got a 5.51 adjusted net yards per pass attempt overall, although that number sits at 7.58 over the past two games.
DeVante Parker (993 receiving yards, seven receiving touchdowns this season), Albert Wilson (233 receiving yards, one receiving TD) and Myles Gaskin (90 rush yards, one rush TD, 22 receiving yards) have all played significant roles lately.
Tom Brady has completed 342-of-555 passes for 3,708 yards, 20 TDs and seven INTs for New England. His ANY/A sits at 6.26 for the season and 6.98 across his last two games.
We’re expecting the Pats to control the game’s clock by feeding their running backs early and often. Backfield mates Sony Michel (749 rush yards, six rush TDs), Rex Burkhead (201 rush yards, two rush TDs, 267 receiving yards), and James White (246 rush yards, one rush TD, 563 receiving yards, three TDs) have really been focal points in the New England offense.
Miami Dolphins vs. New England Patriots Free NFL Tip
SU Winner: , ATS Winner: Dolphins, O/U: Under
Team Betting Trends
- The New England D has tallied more than twice the sack total of Miami this year (45 versus 22).
- The New England offense has lost five fumbles in 2019 while the Miami offense has lost eight.
- The Dolphins offense has created seven pass plays of 40 or more yards, while the Patriots have accounted for five such plays.
- The Miami defense has allowed five pass plays of 40 yards or more, while New England has given up four such plays.
- The Miami offense has created three rushing plays of 20 yards or more, while New England has created six such runs.
- The Dolphins defense has allowed eight rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while the Patriots have given up four such runs.
- The O/U for New England’s last game was set at 39. The over cashed in the 24-17 victory over Buffalo.
- In its last three matches, New England is 1-1-1 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.
- In its last three contests, Miami is 2-1 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.
- The O/U for Miami’s last game going into it was 46. The over cashed in the team’s 38-35 victory over Cincinnati.
- As a team, Miami has averaged 4.0 yards per rush attempt over its last three contests and 3.7 over its last two.
- New England has averaged 4.6 yards per carry over its last three matchups and 4.7 over its last two.
