To conclude the NFL regular season, the New England Patriots (-13) are gearing up to host their AFC East rival New York Jets at Gillette Stadium. This early afternoon game kicks off at 1:00 p.m. ET and CBS is in line to have the TV rights.
Week 17 Betting Preview: New York Jets vs. New England Patriots
In this Sunday AFC matchup, New England has been tabbed as the heavy favorite and the team’s currently giving up 13 points. In order to take the home favorite, moneyline gamblers would currently have to lay down $800 to win $100 back on the Pats (-800). The Jets are getting +500 moneyline odds. There might be some good live betting scenarios in this contest, and oddsmakers have determined the over/under (O/U) to be 47.5 points.
The game’s total has swung lower after opening at 48. The original spread (-13) has not shifted.
The underwhelming Jets are 5-9-1 against the spread (ATS) and have lost 7.4 units so far in 2018. The team has posted an O/U record of 10-5.
The Patriots have lost 2.0 units for moneyline bettors this season. They’re 8-7 ATS and have an O/U record of 5-10.
The Jets have gone 4-11 straight up (SU), including 1-4 SU against AFC East opponents. The Patriots are 10-5 SU overall and 4-1 SU against divisional foes.
The Jets look to get back in stride after a 44-38 defeat to Green Bay last week. Sam Darnold completed 24 passes for 341 yards and three touchdowns. Elijah McGuire (35 yards on 14 rush attempts, one TD) led the ground attack. Robby Anderson (nine receptions, 140 yards, one TD) and Chris Herndon (six catches, 82 yards, one TD) shared the receiving duties in the defeat.
The New England Pats just earned a 24-12 win over Buffalo a week ago. The defense did its duty in the victory, holding the Bills to just 217 passing yards and 72 yards on the ground. Zay Jones had a good outing in the loss, recording 67 yards and a score on five catches for Buffalo. For New England, Tom Brady completed 13-of-24 passes for 126 yards, one touchdown and two interceptions. Sony Michel (116 yards on 18 rush attempts, one TD) and Rex Burkhead (39 yards on 13 carries) mounted the running game while Julian Edelman (six receptions, 70 yards, one TD) and Burkhead (four catches, 40 yards) led the receiving attack in the win.
Each of these teams sports a similar run-pass ratio on the season. New York has run the ball on 43.8 percent of its offensive possessions while New England has a rush percentage of 45.3. The Jets have produced 101.2 rush yards per game (including 71.4 per game against East opponents) and have 11 touchdowns on the ground this year. The Pats are putting up 127.1 rushing yards per game (163.2 in conference) and have 18 total rush TDs.
The Jets offense has averaged 215.8 yards through the air overall (228.8 per game against conference opposition) and has 18 passing TDs so far. The Pats have put up 277.0 pass yards per game (273 in the AFC) and have 25 total pass scores.
New York has allowed opponents to run for an average of 126.0 yards and pass for 273.9 yards per game. The New England defense has allowed 267.6 yards per game to opposing passers and 113.3 yards per game on the ground. Both teams allow similar adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) to opponents, as the Jets have given up an ANY/A of 6.36 to opposing QBs, while the Pats are allowing an ANY/A of 5.93.
Offensively, Darnold has put up 2,445 passing yards on the year. The signal-caller has connected on 199-of-348 attempts with 15 scores through the air and 15 interceptions. Darnold’s got a 5.18 adjusted net yards per pass attempt overall, although that number is 8.35 over the past two outings.
Look for a balanced approach offensively from New York in this one. Robby Anderson (632 receiving yards, five receiving touchdowns on the year), Elijah McGuire (193 rush yards, two rush TDs, 140 receiving yards, one receiving TD) and Chris Herndon (441 receiving yards, four TDs) have each played key roles recently.
Tom Brady has completed 326-of-501 passes for 3,826 yards, 24 TDs and 10 INTs for New England. His ANY/A stands at 7.16 for the season and 4.74 over his last two outings.
We’re looking for the Pats to control tempo by feeding their ball-carriers early and often. Along with WR Julian Edelman (691 receiving yards, five receiving TDs this season), Sony Michel (822 rush yards, six rush TDs) and Rex Burkhead (147 rush yards, 95 receiving yards) have been key factors in the New England offense.
New York Jets at New England Patriots Betting Prediction
SU Winner: Patriots, ATS Winner: Patriots, O/U: Under
Team Betting Notes
- The New York defense has sacked opposing QBs 38 times this season. New England has produced just 26 sacks.
- New England has lost seven fumbles in 2018 while New York has let eight get away.
- The Jets offense has recorded four pass plays of 40 or more yards, while the Patriots have accounted for eight such plays.
- The New York defense has allowed 11 pass plays of 40 or more yards, while New England has given up eight such plays.
- Both teams have produced 10 rushing plays of 20 yards or more. The New York offense has recorded 37 running plays of 10+ yards while New England has accounted for 56 such plays.
- The Jets defense has allowed 22 rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while the Patriots have given up 10 such runs.
- The O/U for New England’s last match going into it was 45. The under cashed in that 24-12 victory over Buffalo.
- In its last three contests, New England is 0-3 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
- In its last three games, New York is 1-1-1 ATS and the over cashed in each of those three.
- New York has lost nine of its last 10 games SU, with a four-point win over Buffalo on December 9th accounting for the only victory over that span.
- The O/U for New York’s previous game was set at 47. The over cashed in the team’s 44-38 loss to Green Bay.
- As a team, New York has rushed for 2.7 yards per attempt over its last three games and 2.7 over its last two.
- New England has averaged 4.6 yards per carry over its last three contests and 5.6 over its past two.
