In the final iteration of the NFL regular season, the Jaguars (+3.5) are set to welcome their AFC South foe Indianapolis Colts (-3.5) to Jacksonville. Fans can catch the action live on CBS and the opening kickoff is scheduled for 4:25 p.m. ET.
Week 17 Betting Preview: Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Indianapolis Colts
In this Sunday AFC game, Indianapolis is projected as the favorite and is currently giving up 3.5 points. The Colts are also receiving -160 moneyline odds while the Jaguars are +140. Vegas has determined the over/under (O/U) to be 43 points, and if one side catches a lucky break early on, it will probably produce a nice betting scenario in-game.
Sharp bettors have been hammering both the Colts and the under. This game’s opening line was initially -2 and the O/U was originally placed at 44.5.
The Colts are 7-7-1 against the spread (ATS) and are down 4.2 units this season. The team’s posted an O/U record of 8-7.
The Jaguars have lost 4.0 units for moneyline bettors this year. They’re 6-9 ATS and own an even O/U record of 7-7-1.
The Colts are 7-8 straight up (SU), including 3-2 SU against AFC South opponents. The Jaguars are 5-10 SU overall and 1-4 SU against divisional foes.
The Colts are coming off a resounding 38-6 win over Carolina last week. Jacoby Brissett completed just 14-of-27 passes for 119 yards. Marlon Mack (95 rushing yards on 16 attempts, one TD) and Jordan Wilkins (84 yards on nine carries, one TD) led the ground attack in the win while T.Y. Hilton (three receptions, 26 yards) and Jack Doyle (two catches, 17 yards) handled the receiving duties.
Jacksonville just dropped a 24-12 game to Atlanta last week. The team’s defense allowed the Falcons to pass for 384 yards while rushing for 135 yards and two scores. Julio Jones had a productive outing in the win for Atlanta, accounting for 166 yards on 10 catches. For Jacksonville, Gardner Minshew II completed 13-of-31 passes for 181 yards and one touchdown. Leonard Fournette (71 yards on 15 rush attempts) led the ground game in the defeat as Seth DeValve (three receptions, 45 yards) led the pass-catching attack.
Indianapolis has run the ball on 47.6 percent of its offensive possessions this year while Jacksonville has an overall rush percentage of 39.9 percent. The Colts have run for 133.2 yards per game (including 150 per game against South opponents) and have 15 scores via handoffs this year. The Jags are totaling 109.4 rushing yards per game (82.2 in conference) and have three total rush TDs.
The Colts offense has tallied 210.1 yards/game through the air overall (213.6 per game versus conference opposition) and has 22 passing TDs so far. The Jags have produced 248.5 pass yards per outing (259 against AFC foes) and have 21 total pass scores.
On the defensive side of the ball, Indianapolis has allowed 100 rush yards and 262.4 pass yards per game. The Jacksonville defense has given up 261.7 yards per game to opposing passers and 139.8 yards per game on the ground. Both teams allow similar adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) to the opposition, as the Colts have given up an ANY/A of 6.39 to opposing QBs, while the Jags are yielding an ANY/A of 6.76.
Passing-wise, Brissett has put up 2,615 yards on the year. The signal-caller has connected on 242-of-388 attempts with 18 passing scores and six interceptions. He’s got a 6.26 adjusted net yards per pass attempt overall, although that number is 4.08 over the past two games.
We’re looking for Colts to maintain tempo by feeding their running backs early and often. Marlon Mack (995 rush yards, six rush TDs) and Jordan Wilkins (297 rush yards, one rush TD) have really been focal points in the offensive gameplans for Indianapolis.
For the home team, Gardner Minshew II has completed 241-of-402 passes for 2,775 yards, 16 TDs and five INTs. Minshew II’s ANY/A stands at 6.30 for the season and 6.32 across his last two outings.
The Jags will also try to dictate the game’s pace by turning to their backfield. In addition to Leonard Fournette (491 receiving yards), Chris Conley (688 receiving yards and three receiving TDs) and Keelan Cole (six rush yards, 218 receiving yards, two TDs) have gotten plenty of touches lately.
Indianapolis Colts vs. Jacksonville Jaguars Free Prediction
SU Winner: Jaguars, ATS Winner: Jaguars, O/U: Under
Team Betting Trends
- The O/U for Indianapolis’ previous game was set at 47. The under cashed in the team’s 38-6 victory over Carolina.
- Indianapolis has rushed for 4.6 yards per attempt across its last three games and 5.4 over its last two.
- Jacksonville has averaged 4.1 yards per carry over its last three outings and 4.2 over its past two.
- Jacksonville has lost 12 fumbles this season while Indianapolis has lost nine.
- In its last three contests, Indianapolis is 1-1-1 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
- The Over/Under for Jacksonville’s previous game was set at 47.5. The under cashed in the team’s 24-12 loss to Atlanta.
- In its last three contests, Jacksonville is 1-2 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
- The Colts offense has created two pass plays of 40 or more yards, while the Jaguars have accounted for five such plays.
- The Indianapolis defense has allowed eight pass plays of 40 or more yards, while Jacksonville has given up 11 such plays.
- The Indianapolis offense has created 12 rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while Jacksonville has created nine such runs.
- The Colts defense has allowed eight rushing plays of 20 yards or more, while the Jaguars have given up 12 such runs.
- The Jacksonville defense has sacked opposing QBs 44 times this season. Indianapolis has produced just 38 sacks.
