Week 16 Free Pick – Detroit Lions at Denver Broncos

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The Broncos (-7) are ready to welcome the Detroit Lions to Denver. CBS has the TV rights and this late afternoon matchup is scheduled to kick off at 4:05 p.m. ET.

Betting Preview: Denver Broncos vs. Detroit Lions

In this Sunday matchup, Denver is getting picked as the favorite and the team’s currently giving up 7 points. The Lions are also receiving +220 moneyline odds while the Broncos are -260. Vegas has set the over/under (O/U) at 38 points. It looks like there should be some good live betting possibilities in this game.

The game’s total has shifted higher after initially being set at 37.5. The opening spread has stayed firm.

The less-than-stellar Lions are 6-8 against the spread (ATS) and are down 7.2 units so far. The team’s posted an O/U record of 9-5.

The Broncos have lost 1.6 units for moneyline bettors this season. They’re 8-6 ATS and have an O/U record of 6-8.

The Lions have gone 3-10-1 straight up (SU) in 2019 while the Broncos are 5-9 SU.

The Lions dropped one to Tampa Bay 38-17 in a Week 15 thumping where their secondary allowed the Buccaneers to air it out for 458 yards and four touchdowns. Chris Godwin had a productive day for the opposition in that one with 121 yards on five catches. On the offense, David Blough completed only 24 passes on 43 attempts for 260 yards and two interceptions. Wes Hills (21 rushing yards on 10 attempts, two TDs) mounted the ground attack in the loss. Danny Amendola (eight receptions, 102 yards) and Ty Johnson (four catches, 17 yards) handled the receiving duties.

Denver just dropped a 23-3 game to Kansas City last week. The defensive secondary let the Chiefs air it out for 340 yards and two touchdowns. Travis Kelce had a good outing for Kansas City, recording 142 yards on 11 catches. For Denver, Drew Lock completed 18-of-40 passes for 208 yards and one interception. Phillip Lindsay (32 yards on seven rush attempts) mounted the ground game in the defeat as Courtland Sutton (four receptions, 79 yards) and Freeman (four catches, 14 yards) led the receiving attack.

Detroit’s run the ball on 41.1 percent of its offensive possessions this year while Denver has a rush percentage of 44.1 percent. The Lions have run for 98.7 yards/game and have six scores via handoffs this year. The Broncos are averaging 103 rushing yards per game and have nine total rush TDs.

The Lions offensive scheme has logged 280.6 yards per game through the air overall and has 26 passing scores so far. The Broncos have recorded 216.1 pass yards per outing and have 14 total pass TDs.

Defensively, Detroit has let opponents run for an average of 113.2 yards and throw for 301.3 yards per game. The Denver defense has allowed 236.7 yards per game to opposing passers and 113.6 yards per game on the ground. The Broncos are allowing an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of only 6.04 to opposing QBs, while the Lions have given up a 7.96 ANY/A.

Offensively, Blough has put up 540 passing yards this year. The signal-caller has completed 46-of-81 attempts with two passing scores and three interceptions. Blough has a 4.87 adjusted net yards per pass attempt overall, although that number is 2.79 over the last two games.

In the other locker room, Drew Lock has connected on 36-of-68 passes for 342 yards, two TDs and two INTs. Lock’s ANY/A stands at 4.04 for the season and 6.71 over his past two outings.

Detroit Lions at Denver Broncos Free NFL Tip

SU Winner: Broncos, ATS Winner: Broncos, O/U: Over

Betting Trends

  • The Denver offense has lost five fumbles this season while Detroit has lost eight.
  • The Denver D has produced 34 sacks on the year while Detroit has just 27.
  • Detroit has averaged 3.3 yards per rush attempt across its past three games and 2.9 over its last two.
  • Denver has averaged 3.4 yards per carry over its last three outings and 3.4 over its last two.
  • Detroit has lost 11 of its last 12 games SU, with a five-point victory over New York on October 27th accounting for the only win over that stretch.