Week 16 Free Pick: Carolina Panthers vs. Indianapolis Colts

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The Carolina Panthers and Indianapolis Colts will face off indoors at Lucas Oil Stadium. This early afternoon game is scheduled to get going at 1:00 p.m. ET and FOX will broadcast the action.

Betting Preview: Indianapolis Colts vs. Carolina Panthers

In this Sunday game, Indianapolis is getting picked as the favorite and is currently giving up 7 points. The Panthers are also receiving +220 moneyline odds while the Colts are -260. Vegas has determined the over/under (O/U) to be 46.5 points, and if one team catches a lucky break in the early stages, it will probably create a nice in-game betting opportunity.

The hapless Panthers are down 9.5 units so far and 6-7-1 against the spread (ATS). The team’s posted an O/U record of 10-4.

The Colts have lost 4.2 units for moneyline bettors this season. They’re 6-6-1 ATS and own an O/U record of 8-5.

The Panthers are 5-9 straight up (SU) in 2019 while the Colts are 6-8 SU.

The Panthers are looking to get back in stride after a 30-24 defeat to Seattle in Week 15Their defense allowed the Seahawks to run for 154 yards on 34 rush attempts, including two rush TDs. Chris Carson had a productive day for the Seahawks in that one with 133 rushing yards and both touchdowns on 24 attempts. On the offensive side, Kyle Allen completed 25 passes for 277 yards, one touchdown and three interceptions. Christian McCaffrey (87 rushing yards on 19 attempts, two TDs) spearheaded the ground attack in the loss. DJ Moore (eight receptions, 113 yards) and McCaffrey (eight catches, 88 yards) handled the receiving duties.

Indianapolis just fell 34-7 to New Orleans a week ago. The defense allowed the Saints to pass for 307 yards and four touchdowns while rushing for 117 yards. Michael Thomas had a good outing in the win for New Orleans, recording 128 yards on 12 catches. For Indianapolis, Jacoby Brissett completed 18-of-34 passes for 165 yards. Marlon Mack (19 yards on 11 rush attempts) spearheaded the ground game in the defeat as Zach Pascal (four receptions, 44 yards) and T.Y. Hilton (four catches, 25 yards) led the receiving attack.

Carolina has run the ball on 39.2 percent of its offensive possessions this year while Indianapolis has an overall rush percentage of 47.2 percent. The Panthers have rushed for 120.8 yards per game and have 19 touchdowns via handoffs this year. The Colts are averaging 127.1 rushing yards per game and have 12 total rush TDs.

It appears that the Colts could have the advantage when it comes to quarterback protection. Their offensive line has allowed just 26 sacks while the D-line has logged 33 sacks. The Panthers O-line has given up 51 sacks and their defense has forced only 49 sacks.

The Panthers offensive scheme has averaged 257.1 yards in the air overall and has 17 passing scores so far. The Colts have recorded 216.6 pass yards per outing and have 22 total pass TDs.

Defensively, Carolina has let opponents rush for an average of 140.2 yards and pass for 257.9 yards per game. The Indianapolis defense has allowed 264.3 yards per game to opposing passers and 100.9 yards per game on the ground. The Panthers are allowing an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of only 5.71 to opposing QBs, while the Colts have given up a 6.89 ANY/A.

Offensively, Allen has amassed 2,734 passing yards this year, and has connected on 250-of-407 attempts with 16 passing scores and 13 interceptions. He has a 4.75 adjusted net yards per pass attempt, including 3.74 over the last two outings.

In the other huddle, Jacoby Brissett has completed 227-of-359 passes for 2,410 yards, 16 TDs and six INTs. Brissett’s ANY/A sits at 6.18 for the year and 6.14 over his past two games.

Carolina Panthers at Indianapolis Colts Free Prediction

SU Winner: Colts, ATS Winner: Panthers, O/U: Over

Betting Notes

  • The Panthers offense has produced six pass plays of 40+ yards, while the Colts have accounted for two such plays.
  • The Carolina defense has allowed five pass plays of 40 or more yards, while Indianapolis has given up eight such plays.
  • The Carolina offense has created seven rushing plays of 20+ yards, while Indianapolis has created 10 such runs.
  • The Panthers defense has allowed 20 rushing plays of 20 yards or more, while the Colts have given up eight such runs.
  • The Carolina defensive unit has 49 sacks on the year while Indianapolis has just 33.
  • As a team, Carolina has produced 4.4 yards per carry across its past three games and 4.8 over its last two.
  • Indianapolis has averaged 3.1 yards per carry over its last three contests and 2.9 over its past two.
  • Carolina has lost eight of its last nine games SU, with a 10-point win over Tennessee on November 3rd representing the only victory over that span.
  • Indianapolis has lost seven of its last eight games SU, with a 20-point win over Jacksonville on November 17th accounting for the lone victory over that span.