The Miami Dolphins (+10) are flying north to battle the Indianapolis Colts at Lucas Oil Stadium. This critical late afternoon game is scheduled to kick off at 4:25 p.m. ET and spectators can watch the action on CBS.
Betting Preview: Indianapolis Colts vs. Miami Dolphins
Miami is a big road underdog in this AFC matchup and is currently getting 10 points. The Dolphins are also receiving +325 moneyline odds while the Colts are -475. If one side can create a bunch of points early on it would create a nice live betting opportunity. Oddsmakers have set the over/under (O/U) at 51 points.
The early action has leaned to the Colts. The line originally opened at -8 and the game’s total was placed initially at 51.5.
The Dolphins are 5-5 against the spread (ATS) and have recorded 1.6 units so far. The team has posted an O/U mark of 5-5.
The Colts are up 0.8 units for moneyline bettors this season. They’re 5-4-1 ATS and own an O/U record of 6-4.
The Dolphins are 5-5 straight up (SU) in 2018 while the Colts are also 5-5 SU.
The Dolphins came up short to Green Bay 31-12 in a Week 10 blowout where their defense allowed the Packers to run for 195 yards on 25 rush attempts, including two rush TDs. On the offense, Brock Osweiler completed 23 passes for 213 yards and one interception. Frank Gore (90 yards on 13 rush attempts) led the ground attack while Danny Amendola (seven receptions, 72 yards) and DeVante Parker (five catches, 43 yards) handled the receiving duties in the defeat.
Indianapolis just picked up a 38-10 win over Tennessee in Week 11. Andrew Luck completed 23-of-29 passes for 297 yards and three touchdowns. Marlon Mack (61 yards on 16 rush attempts, one TD) mounted the running game as T.Y. Hilton (nine receptions, 155 yards, two TDs) and Jack Doyle (four catches, 43 yards) led the receiving attack in the win.
Miami’s run the ball on 43.6 percent of its offensive possessions this year while Indianapolis has an overall rush percentage of 38.4 percent. The Dolphins have rushed for 105.9 yards per game and have three scores on the ground this year. The Colts are logging 112.4 rushing yards per game and have seven total rush TDs.
It appears that the Colts ought to have the advantage when it comes to quarterback protection, as their offensive line has yielded only 10 sacks while the D-line has registered 26 sacks. The Dolphins O-line has allowed 27 sacks and their defense has created only 17 sacks.
The Dolphins offensive scheme has averaged 229.9 yards in the air overall and has 16 passing TDs so far. The Colts have put up 276.7 pass yards per contest and have 29 total pass scores.
Defensively, Miami has allowed opponents to run for an average of 142.0 yards and throw for 262.1 yards per game. The Indianapolis D has allowed 273.2 yards per game to opposing passers and 105.7 yards per game on the ground. Both teams allow similar adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) to opponents, as the Dolphins have given up an ANY/A of 6.44 to opposing QBs, while the Colts are allowing an ANY/A of 6.36.
Luck has been sharper than Osweiler recently. His adjusted net yards per pass attempt stands at 6.74 for the year and 11.33 over his past two outings while Osweiler’s ANY/A is 5.78 and 3.13 over his last two.
Miami Dolphins at Indianapolis Colts Free Prediction
SU Winner: Colts, ATS Winner: Dolphins, O/U: Under
Betting Notes
- The O/U for Miami’s last game going into it was 48.5. The under cashed in the team’s 31-12 loss to Green Bay.
- Miami has rushed for 4.1 yards per attempt over its last three contests and 3.9 over its last two.
- Indianapolis has averaged 4.5 yards per carry over its last three outings and only 3.6 over its past two.
- The Indianapolis offense has lost five fumbles this season while Miami has lost six.
- In its last three matches, Miami is 1-2 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
- The O/U for Indianapolis’ previous outing was set at 50. The under cashed in that 38-10 win over Tennessee.
- Over its last three matches, Indianapolis is 2-0-1 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.
- The Dolphins offense has registered six pass plays of 40+ yards, while the Colts have put up four such plays.
- The Miami defense has allowed nine pass plays of 40 or more yards, while Indianapolis has given up one such play.
- The Miami offense has created seven rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while Indianapolis has created six such runs.
- The Dolphins defense has allowed 12 rushing plays of 20+ yards, while the Colts have given up eight such runs.
- The Indianapolis D has sacked opposing QBs 26 times this year. Miami has recorded just 17 sacks.
