The Washington Nationals will head south to square off against their divisional foe Miami Marlins at Marlins Park. The game gets underway 7:10 p.m. ET and Mid-Atlantic Sports Network will showcase the action.
Washington Nationals vs. Miami Marlins Odds
Oddsmakers are listing Miami (+125) as the underdog to Washington (-135). If you think this game’s total will go under 8.5 runs, Vegas is currently offering -115 odds. Picking the over will give you -105 odds. The game’s most recent runline odds sit at +110 for picking the Nationals -1.5 runs and -130 for the Marlins +1.5.
The Nationals are 9-8 SU and have gone 7-9 against the spread (ATS). They’ve lost 2.5 units for moneyline gamblers in this young season and 1.4 units ATS. Washington is 3-4 ATS over its last seven games and the total has gone over in five of those seven. The Marlins, on the other hand, are 4-15 SU and 7-12 ATS. They’ve lost 9.3 units for moneyline bettors and 8.2 units ATS. Miami has covered the spread only once in its last seven games and the under has cashed in four of those seven.
Miami games have a 9-9-1 over/under record so far in 2019. The Nationals have been a decent over bet with a total record of 11-5.
Right-hander Anibal Sanchez is getting the start for the visiting Nationals. Sanchez (0-1, 4.86 ERA) has racked up 11 strikeouts in 16.2 innings so far. He has yet to face Miami this year, but he made two starts against the Marlins in 2018, putting together a 0-1 record against them with a 4.22 ERA and eight strikeouts.
The Marlins are putting the ball in the left hand of Caleb Smith (1-0, 2.65 ERA), who has 21 strikeouts and six walks this season as well as a 0.88 WHIP. Smith did not register a start against the Nationals in 2018.
As a unit, Miami’s pitching staff has given up 5.1 runs per game overall this year. Its starters have a 4.79 ERA, 1.35 WHIP and 8.8 strikeouts per nine innings. The bullpen has a 5.19 ERA, 1.42 WHIP and 9.6 K/9. In nine games against divisional opponents, Marlins starters have an ERA of 4.88 and the bullpen’s ERA is 4.00.
The Miami hitters are putting up 2.5 runs per contest, including 3.4 per game against divisional foes and 2.6 per game over their last five. The team has hit .227/.275/.337 over its last five matchups and is 1-4 SU during that span.
Second baseman Starlin Castro and catcher Jorge Alfaro have led the Marlins’ batters this year. Castro is slashing .216/.266/.311 with 16 hits, four RBIs and seven runs scored, and Alfaro’s line is .326/.367/.522 with 15 hits, six RBIs and five runs scored.
In the visiting dugout, Washington’s pitching staff allowed 5.1 runs per game and its starters own a 3.61 ERA, 1.18 WHIP and 9.72 K/9. The bullpen has managed an ERA of 8.01, along with a WHIP of 1.18 and a K/9 of 9.31.
The Nationals offense has slashed .264/.349/.467 on its way to 5.8 runs scored per game this season, including 6.7 runs per game against divisional foes and 4.4 per game over the team’s last five contests (3-2 SU).
Washington’s hitters have been paced by third baseman Anthony Rendon and right fielder Adam Eaton. Rendon is hitting .379/.447/.788 with six home runs, 18 RBIs and 20 runs scored. Eaton (.319/.397/.406) has produced one homers, six RBIs and 12 runs scored.
The Nationals have lost 1.3 units and are 0-1 ATS when facing a lefty starter this season. The over has cashed in one of those games, compared to zero that’ve gone under in such games. On the other hand, the Marlins have lost 4.5 units and are 4-8 ATS when facing a righty starter. The over’s cashed in five of those games, compared to six that’ve gone under.
Nationals at Marlins Free MLB Pick
Predictions: SU Winner – Nationals, ATS Winner – Nationals, O/U – UNDER
Betting Notes
- Washington has recorded 18 extra-base hits over its last five games. Miami has 10 XBH over its last five.
- The Nationals have a total OPS of .816 this season and an OPS of .954 against left-handed pitchers. The Marlins’ OPS sits at .608 overall and .622 against lefties.
- The Marlins have lost nine of their last 10 games SU.
- Washington has posted 25.9 Runs + Hits + Errors per game over its last 10 contests and 22.0 over its last five.
- The Nationals have hit 17 home runs in their last 10 games. The Marlins have hit seven over their last 10.
