In a battle of two teams that like to focus on their running games, Coach Bronco Mendenhall and the Virginia Cavaliers (+8) are taking on the Duke Blue Devils (-8) at Brooks Field at Wallace Wade Stadium. Fans can catch the action live on CHSS and the opening kickoff for this crucial ACC game is set for 12:30 p.m. ET.
Betting Preview: Virginia Cavaliers at Duke Blue Devils
In this Saturday Atlantic Coast game, Duke is tabbed as the favorite and the team’s currently giving up 8 points. The Cavaliers are also receiving +250 moneyline odds while the Blue Devils are -330. Oddsmakers have set the over/under (O/U) at 45.5 points. If the favorites start trailing early, it will likely produce a worthy live betting opportunity.
This game’s line opened at -8. The over/under has not changed after it was set initially at 45.5.
Each team has posted a positive return this season as the Cavaliers have gained 3.2 units while the Blue Devils are up 1.4 units.
The Cavaliers have gone 4-2 straight up (SU), including 2-1 SU against ACC opponents. The Blue Devils are 5-1 SU overall and 1-1 SU in conference play.
When these two schools faced each other last year, Virginia won by a touchdown 28-21.
The Wahoos enter after a 16-13 victory over Miami (FL) last week. Bryce Perkins completed 12 passes for only 92 yards and three interceptions. Perkins (61 rushing yards on 21 attempts) also led the running attack and was complemented by Jordan Ellis (86 yards on 18 carries, one TD). Hasise Dubois (four receptions, 32 yards) and Olamide Zaccheaus (three catches, 15 yards) handled the receiving duties in the win.
Duke is coming off of a 28-14 win over Georgia Tech. The team’s defense let the Yellow Jackets rush for 229 yards on 61 attempts, along with one rushing TD. Jerry Howard was a bright spot in the defeat, posting 62 rushing yards and a score on 12 attempts for Georgia Tech. For Duke, Daniel Jones completed 17-of-27 passes for 206 yards, three touchdowns and one interception. Deon Jackson (98 rushing yards on 21 attempts, one TD) spearheaded the running attack as T.J. Rahming (four receptions, 91 yards, one TD) and Aaron Young (three catches, 25 yards) led the pass-catching corps in the win.
In terms of offensive play-calling, each of these squads has a similar (58-42) run-pass ratio on the season. The Cavaliers have rushed for 183.0 yards/game (including 145.3 per game against Atlantic Coast opponents) and have 10 touchdowns on the ground this year. The Blue Devils are averaging 174.5 rush yards per game (84.5 in conference) and have 10 total rushing TDs.
If 2018 results can translate to this game, then the Blue Devils may be the more disruptive team in the trenches. Their offensive line has allowed just 11 sacks while their D-line has logged 13 sacks. The Cavaliers offensive line has allowed 15 sacks and their defense has recorded only 11 sacks.
The Wahoos offense has averaged 203.8 yards in the air overall (182.3 per game versus conference opposition) and has 11 passing TDs so far. The Blue Devils have recorded 215.5 pass yards per game (231 against ACC competition) and have 15 total pass scores.
Virginia has let opponents rush for an average of 130.0 yards and pass for 197.0 yards per game. The Duke D has allowed 209.5 yards per game to opposing passers and 140.5 yards per game to opposing runners. The Wahoos are giving up an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of just 4.87 to opponents, while the Blue Devils have allowed a 5.83 ANY/A.
Offensively, Perkins has put up 959 passing yards this season, and has connected on 79-of-123 attempts with nine scores through the air and five interceptions. Perkins has a 6.30 adjusted net yards per pass attempt overall, although that number sits at 1.70 over the last two games.
Daniel Jones has completed 46-of-66 passes for 595 yards, seven TDs and one INT for Duke. His ANY/A stands at 9.01 for the season and 5.45 over his last two outings.
Virginia Cavaliers at Duke Blue Devils Free Prediction
SU Winner: Duke, ATS Winner: Duke, O/U: Under
Team Betting Notes
- The Over/Under for Virginia’s previous game was 47. The under cashed in the team’s 16-13 win over Miami (FL).
- Virginia has produced 4.0 yards per carry over its last three games and 3.3 over its last two.
- Duke has averaged 4.2 yards per carry over its last three contests and only 2.4 over its past two.
- Both teams have lost four fumbles this year.
- Over its last three games, Virginia is 2-1 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
- Virginia has won four of its last five games SU, with a 14-point loss to North Carolina State on September 29th representing the only defeat over that stretch.
- The Over/Under for Duke’s last game was set at 55.5. The under cashed in the 28-14 victory over Georgia Tech.
- Over its last three matches, Duke is 1-2 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
- The Cavaliers offense has registered three pass plays of 40 or more yards, while the Blue Devils have put up five such plays.
- The Virginia defense has allowed one pass play of 40 or more yards, while Duke has given up two such plays.
- The Virginia offense has created 10 rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while Duke has created eight such runs.
- The Cavaliers defense has allowed six rushing plays of 20 yards or more, while the Blue Devils have given up four such runs.
- The Duke D has created 13 sacks on the year while Virginia has 11.
