Two teams that like to run the football, Head Coach Neal Brown and the Troy Trojans (-11) are taking on their SBC foe South Alabama Jaguars at Ladd-Peebles Stadium. The game is scheduled to get going at 8:00 p.m. ET and fans can catch it live by tuning in to ESPN2.
Betting Preview: Troy Trojans vs. South Alabama Jaguars
In this Tuesday Sun Belt game, Troy is getting picked as the big favorite and is currently giving up 11 points. The Trojans are also receiving -450 moneyline odds while the Jaguars are +325. If one team can create a bunch of points early, it’ll likely create a decent live betting scenario.
The line originally opened at 10 but sharp bettors are siding with the Trojans.
The Trojans have recorded 0.9 units so far and are 4-2-1 against the spread (ATS). The team has posted an O/U mark of 5-2.
The Jaguars are down 1.0 unit this season. The team is 3-3-1 ATS and six of its games have gone over the total.
The Trojans have gone 5-2 straight up (SU), including 3-0 SU against SBC opponents. The Jaguars are 2-5 SU overall and 1-2 SU in conference play.
The Trojans dropped one to Liberty 22-16 in a contest where their defense allowed the Flames to kill the clock by rushing for 103 yards on 45 attempts, along with one rushing TD. Offensively, Sawyer Smith completed just 13-of-25 passes for 135 yards, as well as one TD and an interception. B.J. Smith (111 rushing yards on 20 attempts) and the signal-caller Smith (15 yards on 11 carries) led the ground attack. Deondre Douglas (six receptions, 58 yards, one TD) and Damion Willis (three catches, 56 yards) shared the receiving duties in the defeat.
South Alabama is coming off of a 45-7 win over Alabama State two weeks ago. Evan Orth completed 12-of-15 passes for 155 yards and one touchdown. Tra Minter (61 rushing yards on 12 attempts, one TD) and Deonta Moore (65 yards on 11 carries) spearheaded the running game while Jamarius Way (three receptions, 35 yards) and Kawaan Baker (two catches, 52 yards) led the pass-catching corps in the win.
Each of these squads has a remarkably similar (57-43) run-pass ratio on the season. The Trojans have produced 207.7 rush yards/game (including 254.0 per game against Sun Belt opponents) and have 13 touchdowns on the ground this year. The Jags are totaling 130.7 rushing yards per game (109.3 in conference) and have 13 total rush TDs.
If the numbers so far this season are any indication, then it’s looking like the Trojans ought to hold an edge in terms of RB efficiency, as their running backs has logged 5.5 yards per carry while their defense is allowing 3.3 YPC to opponents. The Jaguars have recorded 3.5 yards per carry and given up 5.0 yards per rush attempt to opponents.
The Trojans offense has averaged 205.9 yards in the air overall (243.7 per game against conference opposition) and has 15 passing scores so far. The Jags have produced 212.3 pass yards per outing (229 against SBC competition) and have nine total pass TDs.
Defensively, Troy has let opponents run for an average of 132.9 yards and pass for 239.0 yards per game. The South Alabama defense has allowed 224.3 yards per game to opposing passers and 221.7 yards per game on the ground. The Trojans are allowing an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of only 5.87 to opposing QBs, while the Jags have given up a 6.88 ANY/A.
Orth has been more productive than Smith lately. His adjusted net yards per pass attempt stands at 7.87 for the year and 6.60 across his past two games while Smith’s ANY/A is 4.40 (and 3.16 over the last two games).
These two schools faced off last year with the final outcome being a 19-8 victory for South Alabama.
Troy Trojans at South Alabama Jaguars NCAA Prediction
SU Winner: Troy, ATS Winner: Troy
Team Betting Notes
- The Troy defense has sacked opposing quarterbacks 22 times this year. South Alabama has registered just 14 sacks.
- South Alabama has lost nine fumbles this season while the Troy offense has let seven get away.
- The Trojans offense has recorded four pass plays of 40 or more yards, while the Jaguars have accounted for six such plays.
- Both teams have allowed seven pass plays of 40+ yards. The Troy defense has given up nine pass plays of 30+ yards while South Alabama has yielded 14 such plays.
- The Troy offense has created 18 rushing plays of 20 yards or more, while South Alabama has created three such runs.
- The Trojans defense has allowed eight rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while the Jaguars have given up 16 such runs.
- The Over/Under for South Alabama’s last outing was set at 55.5. The under cashed in the team’s 45-7 victory over Alabama State.
- In its last three contests, South Alabama is 1-2 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.
- In its last three matches, Troy is 1-1-1 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.
- The O/U for Troy’s last game was set at 62. The under cashed in the team’s 22-16 defeat to Liberty.
- Troy has produced 7.0 yards per carry over its past three games and 6.1 over its last two.
- South Alabama has averaged 3.4 yards per carry over its last three outings and 3.8 over its past two.
