The Texas State Bobcats (+11) are heading east to visit their in-conference foe Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks at JPS Field at James L. Malone Stadium. ESPN 3 will televise the action and the game’s scheduled to get underway at 7:00 p.m. ET.
Betting Preview: Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks vs. Texas State Bobcats
In this Saturday Sun Belt game, Louisiana-Monroe is getting picked as the heavy favorite and is currently giving up 11 points. The Bobcats are also receiving +325 moneyline odds while the Warhawks are -450. Vegas has set the over/under (O/U) at 59.5 points. Multiple decent live betting possibilities may be unveiled during the game.
This matchup’s betting odds have moved slightly from when they were originally posted. The line opened at -12 while the game’s total was initially set at 59.
The underwhelming Bobcats are 2-3-1 against the spread (ATS) and are down 5.0 units this season. The team’s posted an Over-Under record of 3-3.
The Warhawks are up 0.7 units for moneyline bettors this year. They’re 2-5 ATS and own an O/U record of 2-4.
The Bobcats have gone 1-5 straight up (SU), including 0-3 SU against conference opponents. The Warhawks are 3-4 SU overall and 1-2 SU in conference play.
The Bobcats are trying to get back in stride after a narrow 15-13 loss to Georgia Southern last weekTheir defense allowed the Eagles to eat up the clock by running for 164 yards on 52 rush attempts, along with one rushing TD. Wesley Fields posted a good day for the Eagles in that one with 93 rushing yards and a score on 26 attempts. On the offense, the Bobcats completed 14-of-27 passes for 135 yards, one touchdown and one interception. Tyler Vitt went 13-for-21 for 132 yards, one touchdown and one interception while Willie Jones III completed one-of-six for three yards. Willie Jones III (30 yards on 10 rush attempts) mounted the ground attack in the loss. Hutch White (four receptions, 41 yards) and Keenen Brown (three catches, 24 yards) shared the receiving duties.
The Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks just picked up a lopsided 45-20 win over Coastal Carolina. The defensive unit let the Chanticleers run for 272 yards on 53 rush attempts, including two rush TDs. Marcus Outlow was a bright spot in the defeat for Coastal Carolina, posting 104 rushing yards and a score on 15 attempts. For Louisiana-Monroe, Caleb Evans completed 16-of-22 passes for 224 yards and one touchdown. Derrick Gore (147 yards on 16 rush attempts, two TDs) mounted the ground game in the win as Marcus Green (five receptions, 111 yards, one TD) and Markis McCray (four catches, 56 yards) led the receiving attack.
Texas State has run the ball on 54.5 percent of its offensive possessions this year while Louisiana-Monroe has a rush percentage of 47.8 percent. The Bobcats have run for 131.7 yards per game (including 129.7 per game against Sun Belt opponents) and have five scores via handoffs this year. The Warhawks are totaling 166.7 rushing yards per game (189.0 in conference) and have 12 total rush TDs.
If 2018 numbers are any indication, then it seems like the Warhawks ought to be the more disruptive team in the trenches. Their offensive line has allowed only 12 sacks while the D-line has registered 20 sacks. The Bobcats offensive line has allowed 18 sacks and their defense has sacked opposing QBs just five times.
The Bobcats offense has averaged 202.2 yards in the air overall (216.7 per game against conference opposition) and has 10 passing TDs so far. The Warhawks have put up 244.9 pass yards per game (217 in the SBC) and have nine total pass scores.
On the defensive side of the ball, Texas State seems to have the upper hand in both facets. The team has allowed 167.7 rush yards and 199.0 pass yards per game. The Louisiana-Monroe defense has given up 312.0 yards per game to opposing passers and 205.7 yards per game on the ground. The Bobcats are allowing an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of just 6.51 to opponents, while the Warhawks have given up an ugly 9.05 ANY/A.
Offensively, Vitt has amassed 354 passing yards on the year, and has completed 64 percent of his 50 attempts with three passing scores and four interceptions. He has a 3.40 adjusted net yards per pass attempt overall, although that number sits at 6.60 over the past two outings.
Caleb Evans has connected on 129-of-211 passes for 1,416 yards, eight TDs and six INTs for Louisiana-Monroe. His ANY/A sits at 5.80 for the year and 7.81 over his past two games.
These two programs met a year ago with the final result being a 45-27 victory for Louisiana-Monroe.
Texas State Bobcats vs. Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks Betting Prediction
SU Winner: Texas State, ATS Winner: Texas State, O/U: Over
Team Betting Notes
- The Louisiana-Monroe D has registered 20 sacks on the year while Texas State has just five.
- The Louisiana-Monroe offense has lost seven fumbles in 2018 while the Texas State offense has lost six.
- Both teams have produced four pass plays of 40 yards or more. The Bobcats have have made six pass plays of 30+ yards while the Warhawks have accounted for 13 such plays.
- The Texas State defense has allowed five pass plays of 40 or more yards, while Louisiana-Monroe has given up six such plays.
- The Texas State offense has created seven rushing plays of 20+ yards, while Louisiana-Monroe has created 10 such runs.
- The Bobcats defense has allowed four rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while the Warhawks have given up 16 such runs.
- The O/U for Louisiana-Monroe’s last outing was 66.5. The under cashed in the team’s 45-20 victory over Coastal Carolina.
- Over its last three games, Louisiana-Monroe is 1-2 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
- Over its last three matchups, Texas State is 2-1 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
- The Over/Under for Texas State’s last game was 51.5. The under cashed in the team’s 15-13 loss to Georgia Southern.
- As a team, Texas State has averaged 3.0 yards per rush attempt across its last three contests and 3.9 over its last two.
- Louisiana-Monroe has averaged 5.4 yards per carry over its last three outings and 5.2 over its last two.
