Big 12 foes will collide when the Iowa State Cyclones (13-13, 4-10 Big 12) take on the TCU Horned Frogs (18-9, 6-8 Big 12) at James H. Hilton Coliseum. TCU is a 4.5-point favorite on the opening line, while the game’s Over/Under (O/U) opened at 156 points. Action gets underway at 8 p.m. ET on Wednesday, February 21, 2018.
TCU Horned Frogs vs. Iowa State Cyclones Odds Preview
The Horned Frogs easily got past the Oklahoma State Cowboys in their last game, 90-70. With 16 points and six rebounds, Kenrich Williams played well for TCU. TCU played a nearly flawless game. They had a phenomenal effective field goal percentage of 0.614 (above their season average of 0.573) and a free throw rate of 0.351 (above their season average of 0.231). Oklahoma State recorded marks of 0.425 and 0.317, respectively, for those same stats.
The last time the Cyclones played, they were blown out by the Kansas State Wildcats, 78-66. Cameron Lard was Iowa State’s leading scorer with 15 points on 7-for-12 shooting. Kansas State had an offensive rebounding percentage of 41.9 (above their season average of 26.6). Iowa State, meanwhile, had a better free throw rate (0.161 vs. 0.100).
TCU could have a difficult time creating turnovers. Iowa State ranks 74th in the NCAA at avoiding errors (turnover percentage of 17.2 percent), while TCU forces the 248th-most turnovers (17.8 percent).
Furthermore, the Horned Frogs’ seventh-ranked offense (offensive efficiency of 118.8) will attempt to exploit the Cyclones’ 253rd-ranked defense (defensive efficiency of 106.9).
Games including these teams tend to go over the projected point total. TCU games have finished over 65.4 percent of the time, while 58.3 percent of Iowa State games have gone over. The Horned Frogs come into this game with a significant advantage in both straight up (SU) and against the spread (ATS) records. They are 18-9 SU and 13-12-1 ATS, while the Cyclones are 13-13 SU and 9-14-1 ATS.
Lard has been outstanding over the last five games for Iowa State, averaging 18.4 points, 11.0 rebounds and 2.4 blocks per game.
These teams have already met once this season. In that game, the two teams combined for 169 points, which was over the projected point total of 160.5. The Horned Frogs won 96-73, covering as 10-point favorites. The Horned Frogs dominated every facet of the game. They had a ridiculously low turnover percentage of 5.5 and a free throw rate of 0.127. For those same stats, the Cyclones were 13.8 and 0.085, respectively. Vladimir Brodziansky was the game’s top overall scorer with 26 points.
TCU Horned Frogs at Iowa State Cyclones Betting Prediction
Free Basketball Pick: SU Winner – TCU, ATS Winner – Iowa State, O/U – Over
Betting Notes:
- The Horned Frogs rank 173rd in three pointers attempted per game (21.4) while the Cyclones rank 256th in three pointers allowed per game (24.7).
- TCU ranks 83rd in steals per game (6.8) while Iowa State ranks 91st in steals allowed per game (5.9).
- TCU is 5-5-1 ATS on the road with 6 overs and 5 unders.
- At home, Iowa State is 6-5-1 ATS with 7 overs and 5 unders.
- TCU ranks 11th in rebounds allowed per game (30.3) while Iowa State ranks 229th (36.7).
- The Horned Frogs rank second in assists per game (19.6) while the Cyclones rank 183rd in assists allowed per game (14.2).
- Iowa State averages 4.2 blocks per game, which ranks 53rd in the nation. TCU ranks 183rd in blocks allowed per game (4.4).
Bettings Trends:
- Iowa State is 2-3 ATS with 3 overs, 1 under and 1 push in their last five games.
- Over their last five games, TCU is 2-2-1 ATS with 3 overs and 2 unders.
- The Cyclones’ average margin of defeat in their last five games has been 8.4, up from 1.0 for the season.
- During their last five games, the Horned Frogs have scored an average of 75.6 points per game (8.8 below their season average) and allowed an average of 75.4 points per game (1.3 below their season average).
