Paul Goldschmidt and the surging St. Louis Cardinals will square off against their divisional rival Cincinnati Reds at Great American Ball Park in a Saturday showdown. The first pitch is scheduled for 6:40 p.m. ET and Fox Sports Ohio will televise the matchup.
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds Odds
Vegas has placed equal -105 moneyline odds on both of these teams. If you’re thinking the game’s total is going to go under 9.5 runs, then bookmakers are putting up -105 odds. Playing the over will return -115 odds. This game currently has a runline of Cardinals -1.5 (+140) and Reds +1.5 (-160).
The Reds are 67-53 against the spread (ATS), but just 57-64 straight up (SU). They’ve lost 3.0 units for bettors taking the moneyline while gaining 5.3 units ATS. The Cardinals have gone 64-56 SU this year and are 62-57 ATS. In total, the team’s lost 4.2 units for moneyline gamblers, but have gained 2.7 units ATS.
Reds games have an over/under record of 47-68-5 in 2019. Cardinals games have gone under 64 times, gone over 46 times and pushed on nine occasions.
Miles Mikolas will get the nod for St. Louis. The right-handed Mikolas is 7-12 with a 4.13 ERA and 101 strikeouts. He’s 0-2 with 11 strikeouts and a 5.63 ERA against Cincinnati this year (three starts).
The Reds are turning to righty Anthony DeSclafani (7-7, 4.51 ERA), who has 123 strikeouts and 36 walks as well as a 1.33 WHIP. DeSclafani is 1-1 with 27 strikeouts and a 2.57 ERA over four starts against St. Louis this year.
St. Louis’ pitching staff allowed 4.2 runs per game and its starters own a 4.16 ERA, 1.36 WHIP and 8.02 K/9. The bullpen has an ERA of 3.72, along with a WHIP of 1.36 and a K-per-9 of 9.85.
Cardinals hitters have slashed .244/.317/.406 on their way to 4.5 runs scored per game this year, including 5.1 runs per game against divisional foes and 6.6 per game over the team’s last five outings (4-1 SU).
First baseman Paul Goldschmidt and shortstop Paul DeJong continue to lead St. Louis’ offense. Goldschmidt is slashing .258/.333/.467 with 27 home runs, 66 RBIs and 72 runs scored, while DeJong (.248/.325/.455) has produced 21 homers, 56 RBIs and 77 runs scored.
For the home team, Cincinnati’s pitching staff has yielded 4.4 runs per game overall this year. Its starting pitching staff has a 4.05 ERA, 1.26 WHIP and 9.8 strikeouts per nine innings. The bullpen has a 4.54 ERA, 1.36 WHIP and 9.7 K/9. In 58 games against NL Central opponents, Reds starters have an ERA of 3.98 and the bullpen’s ERA is 5.24.
The Cincinnati offense has put up 4.6 runs per contest, including 4.9 per game against divisional foes and 4.0 per game over its last five. The team has hit .269/.319/.451 over its last five games and is 1-4 SU during that stretch.
The Reds’ batters have been led by third baseman Eugenio Suarez and first baseman Joey Votto. Suarez is slashing .259/.341/.530 with 33 home runs, 76 RBIs and 66 runs scored, while Votto’s line is .262/.352/.410 with 12 homers, 39 RBIs and 60 runs.
The Cardinals have gained 0.3 units and are 52-43 ATS when facing a right-handed starting pitcher this season. The over has cashed in 35 of those games, compared to 54 that’ve gone under in such games. On the other hand, the Reds have lost 0.8 units and are 50-42 ATS when facing a right-handed starting pitcher. The over’s hit in 36 of those games, as opposed to 53 that’ve gone under.
Cardinals at Reds Free MLB Pick
Predictions: SU Winner – Reds, ATS Winner – Reds, O/U – UNDER
Betting Notes
- The over has cashed in only one of St. Louis’ last seven outings.
- The Cardinals have won six of their last seven games SU.
- Cincinnati has recorded 25.3 Runs + Hits + Errors per game over its last 10 contests and 22.8 over its last five.
- The Cardinals have hit 10 home runs in their last 10 games, including eight over their last five.
- The Cardinals have a total OPS of .724 this season and an OPS of .721 against right-handed pitchers. The Reds’ OPS sits at .751 overall and .736 versus righties.
