The South Alabama Jaguars (+15) aren’t traveling far to take on their in-conference nemesis Troy Trojans at Larry Blakeney Field at Veterans Memorial Stadium. ESPN2 will televise the action and this Wednesday showdown is scheduled to get going at 8:00 p.m. ET.
Betting Preview: Troy Trojans vs. South Alabama Jaguars
In this mid-week Sun Belt game, Troy is tabbed as the heavy favorite and the team’s currently giving up 15 points. The Jaguars are also receiving +510 moneyline odds while the Trojans are -750. Based on how things are shaping up, there should be some good live betting opportunities in this contest.
The Jaguars are 3-3 against the spread (ATS) and are down 3.0 units so far. They’ve been a good under bet and have recorded an O/U mark of 1-5.
The Trojans have lost 3.5 units this season. The team is 1-4 ATS and has an O/U record of 3-2.
The Jaguars are 1-5 straight up (SU), including 0-2 SU against SBC opponents. The Trojans are 2-3 SU overall and 0-1 SU in conference play.
The Jaguars lost to Georgia Southern 20-17 in a matchup where their defense allowed the Eagles to run for 310 yards on 66 rush attempts, including two rush TDs. On the offensive side of the ball, Cephus Johnson completed only eight-of-15 passes for 194 yards and two touchdowns. Tra Minter (45 rushing yards on 17 attempts) spearheaded the ground attack. Kawaan Baker (four receptions, 126 yards, one TD) and Minter (three catches, eight yards) handled the receiving duties in the defeat.
Troy most-recently fell 42-10 to Missouri back in Week 6. As a group, the team collectively completed 20-of-35 passes for 150 yards, one touchdown and two interceptions. Kaleb Barker went 15-for-26 for 92 yards, one touchdown and two interceptions while Gunnar Watson was five-of-nine for 58 yards. Trevon Woolfolk (62 yards on 18 rush attempts) spearheaded the running game as Reggie Todd (six receptions, 44 yards) and Kaylon Geiger (four catches, 22 yards) led the pass-catching corps in the loss.
South Alabama has run the ball on 64.6 percent of its offensive possessions this year while Troy has a rush percentage of 46 percent. The Jaguars have run for 170 yards/game (including 158 per game against Sun Belt opponents) and have seven scores on the ground this year. The Trojans are putting up 148.6 rush yards per game and have seven total rushing TDs.
If the numbers so far this season can translate to this game, then it’s looking like the Trojans should hold an edge in terms of RB efficiency, as their running backs has produced 4.3 yards per carry while their defense is allowing a YPC of 2.8 to opponents. The Jaguars have registered 4.1 yards per carry while allowing a YPC of 4.6 to opponents.
The Jags offensive scheme has logged 149 yards/game through the air overall (154 per game against conference opposition) and has six passing TDs so far. The Trojans have produced 303.6 pass yards per game and have 14 total pass scores.
On the defensive side of the ball, South Alabama appears to have the upper hand when it comes to limiting the pass. The team has allowed 200.8 rush yards and 199.3 pass yards per game. The Troy defense has allowed 308.6 yards per game to opposing passers and 93.8 yards per game on the ground. The Jags are allowing an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of 7.49 to opponents, while the Trojans have given up a whopping 9.56 ANY/A.
Passing-wise, Johnson is up to 594 yards this season. The signal-caller has completed 53 percent of his 86 attempts with five scores through the air and four interceptions. He has a 4.86 adjusted net yards per pass attempt, including 6.00 over the last two games.
On the other sideline, Kaleb Barker has managed to complete 89-of-135 passes for 1,092 yards, 10 TDs and three INTs. Barker’s ANY/A stands at 7.86 for the season and 4.62 over his last two outings.
These two squads faced off last year with the final result being a 38-17 victory for Troy.
South Alabama Jaguars vs. Troy Trojans Free Pick
SU Winner: South Alabama, ATS Winner: South Alabama
Team Betting Trends
- The Troy D has sacked opposing QBs 13 times this season. South Alabama has registered nine sacks.
- Troy has lost three fumbles this season while South Alabama has let six get away.
- The Jaguars offense has created four pass plays of 40 or more yards, while the Trojans have put up five such plays.
- The South Alabama defense has allowed five pass plays of 40+ yards, while Troy has given up 11 such plays.
- The South Alabama offense has created 11 rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while Troy has created five such run.
- The Jaguars defense has allowed 10 rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while the Trojans have given up one such run.
- The O/U for Troy’s last match going into it was 65.5. The under cashed in the 42-10 defeat to Missouri.
- Over its last three matchups, Troy is 1-2 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
- Over its last three matches, South Alabama is 2-1 ATS and the under cashed in each of those three.
- Troy has dropped four of its last five games SU, with a 28-point win over Akron on September 21st representing the only victory over that stretch.
- The O/U for South Alabama’s previous game was 44.5. The under cashed in the team’s 20-17 defeat to Georgia Southern.
- As a team, South Alabama has averaged 4.0 yards per rush attempt over its past three games and 4.2 over its last two.
- Troy has averaged 3.9 yards per carry over its last three outings and 3.1 over its last two.
