In a battle featuring two schools that prefer running the football, Coach Steve Campbell and the South Alabama Jaguars (+10) will be facing off against the Georgia State Panthers (-10) at Parker H. Petit Field at Georgia State Stadium. This conference game is scheduled to kick off at 2:00 p.m. ET and ESPN+ will televise the action.
Betting Preview: Georgia State Panthers vs. South Alabama Jaguars
South Alabama is projected as the underdog and is currently getting 10 points in this SBC game. If they want to play the moneyline, bettors would currently need to wager $400 in order to win $100 back on the Panthers (-400). The Jaguars are getting +300 moneyline odds. If one squad can get out in front early it will create a nice live betting opportunity. Vegas has set the over/under (O/U) at 56.5 points.
The early action has shifted toward the Jaguars. The line opened at -11 and the game’s over/under has not changed after it was set initially at 56.5.
The Jaguars are down 5.0 units so far in 2019 and 6-4 against the spread (ATS). They’ve been a good under bet and have recorded an O/U mark of 3-7.
The Panthers have gained 2.8 units this season. The team is 5-3-2 ATS and six of its games have gone over the total.
The Jaguars have gone 1-9 straight up (SU), including 0-6 SU against conference opponents. The Panthers are 6-4 SU overall and 3-3 SU in conference play.
These two SBC foes did not get a chance to play each other in 2018.
The Jaguars lost to Louisiana 37-27 in a game where their defense allowed the Ragin’ Cajuns to run for 255 yards on 45 rush attempts, including two rush TDs. On the offense, Desmond Trotter completed just eight-of-15 passes for 116 yards. Tra Minter (137 rushing yards on 22 attempts, one TD) and the signal-caller Trotter (65 yards on 12 carries) led the ground attack. Cade Sutherland (three receptions, 64 yards) and Jalen Tolbert (one catch, 14 yards) handled the receiving duties in the defeat.
Georgia State just fell 56-27 to Appalachian State. As a group, the team collectively completed 15-of-32 passes for 138 yards, one touchdown and two interceptions. Dan Ellington went 12-for-27 for 88 yards, one touchdown and two interceptions while Cornelious Brown was three-of-five for 50 yards. Tra Barnett (90 yards on 17 rush attempts) and Destin Coates (97 yards on seven carries, one TD) spearheaded the running game as Devin Gentry (four receptions, 32 yards, one TD) and Cornelius McCoy (three catches, 22 yards) led the receiving attack in the loss.
South Alabama has run the ball on 65.2 percent of its offensive possessions this year while Georgia State has an overall rush percentage of 60.9 percent. The Jaguars have produced 173.4 rush yards/game (including 171.7 per game versus Sun Belt opponents) and have 14 scores on the ground this year. The Panthers are putting up 265.8 rushing yards per game (314 in conference) and have 26 total rush TDs.
It seems like the Panthers may be the more disruptive team in the trenches, as their offensive line has yielded just 14 sacks while their D-line has registered 17 sacks. The Jaguars O-line has allowed 25 sacks and their defense has created only 14 sacks.
The Jags offense has logged 140.9 yards per game through the air overall (137.2 per game versus conference opposition) and has eight passing TDs so far. The Panthers have put up 203.1 pass yards per game (195 in the SBC) and have 19 total pass scores.
Defensively, South Alabama seems to have the upper hand in both facets. The team has allowed opponents to run for an average of 203.5 yards and pass for 204.9 yards per game. The Georgia State D has allowed 258 yards per game to opposing passers and 215.2 yards per game to opposing runners. The Jags are allowing an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of 7.18 to opponents, while the Panthers have given up an 8.16 ANY/A.
Offensively, Trotter is up to 159 passing yards this season, and has connected on 46 percent of his 24 attempts with zero scores through the air and has yet to throw an interception. He’s got a 4.75 adjusted net yards per pass attempt overall, although that number sits at 8.39 over the past two games.
The Jaguars will likely try to maintain the pace by pounding the defense with their running backs. Tra Minter (794 rush yards, three rush TDs) and Carlos Davis (182 rush yards, one rush TD) have really been focal points in the offensive gameplans for South Alabama.
In the hosts’ locker room, Cornelious Brown has completed 3-of-10 passes for 50 yards, zero TDs and one INT. Brown’s ANY/A sits at a very poor 0.50 for the season and 5.65 across his last two games.
The Panthers will also try to dictate the game’s pace by turning to their backfield. Dan Ellington (zero receiving yards) has chipped in lately, but Tra Barnett (1,018 rush yards, eight rush TDs) and Destin Coates (281 rush yards, five rush TDs) have gotten quite a few looks recently.
South Alabama Jaguars vs. Georgia State Panthers Bedding Prediction
SU Winner: Georgia State, ATS Winner: Georgia State, O/U: Under
Betting Notes
- The Georgia State offense has lost seven fumbles this season while South Alabama has let nine get away.
- The Georgia State D has sacked opposing QBs 17 times this year. South Alabama has produced 14 sacks.
- South Alabama, as a team, has averaged 4.5 yards per rush attempt across its last three games and 5.3 over its last two.
- Georgia State has averaged 7.0 yards per carry over its last three outings and 7.1 over its last two.
- Over its last three matches, Georgia State is 1-2 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.
- The Over/Under for South Alabama’s previous game was set at 53. The over cashed in the team’s 37-27 defeat to Louisiana.
- In its last three matches, South Alabama is 3-0 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.
- The Over/Under for Georgia State’s last outing was 61.5. The over cashed in that 56-27 loss to Appalachian State.
