The San Jose State Spartans (-6.5) are traveling east to battle their in-conference nemesis UNLV Rebels at Sam Boyd Stadium. Kickoff for this matchup is scheduled for 4:00 p.m. ET and ATSN has the TV rights.
Betting Preview: San Jose State Spartans at UNLV Rebels
UNLV is a live dog and is currently getting 6.5 points in this MWC game. The Spartans are also receiving -270 moneyline odds while the Rebels are +210. Oddsmakers have set the over/under (O/U) at 65.5 points. If the favorites give up points early on, it will likely generate a nice in-game betting opportunity.
Early action has leaned to both the Spartans and the over. This line originally opened at 4.5 and the over/under was set initially at only 62.
The Spartans have lost 1.1 units so far and are 6-3-1 against the spread (ATS). The team’s posted an Over-Under record of 5-5.
The Rebels are down 0.8 units for moneyline bettors this season. They’re 4-6 ATS and own an O/U record of 3-7.
The Spartans have gone 4-6 straight up (SU), including 1-5 SU against conference opponents. The Rebels are 2-8 SU overall and 0-6 SU in conference play.
The Spartans are most-recently on the rebound after a narrow 42-40 defeat to Hawaii on November 9 where Josh Love completed 30 passes for 375 yards and two touchdowns. DeJon Packer (112 yards on 20 rush attempts, two TDs) mounted the running attack in the loss while Tre Walker (10 receptions, 138 yards) and Hamilton (seven catches, 105 yards, one TD) shared the receiving duties.
UNLV just fell 21-7 to Hawaii. The team’s defense let the Rainbow Warriors rush for 185 yards on 39 attempts, including two rush TDs. Jared Smart had a good outing for Hawaii, posting 106 yards on nine catches. For UNLV, Kenyon Oblad completed 10-of-22 passes for 118 yards, one touchdown and two interceptions. Charles Williams (57 yards on 14 rush attempts) and Chad Magyar (65 yards on nine carries) mounted the ground game in the defeat while Darren Woods Jr. (six receptions, 63 yards, one TD) and Giovanni Fauolo Sr. (three catches, 57 yards) led the pass-catching corps.
San Jose State has run the ball on 38.3 percent of its offensive plays this year, including 36.1 percent across possessions in conference play. UNLV has an overall rush percentage of 52.9 percent, and has kept it on the ground 45.5 percent of the time when facing MWC opponents. The Spartans have run for 86.2 yards/game (including 66.7 per game versus Mountain West opponents) and have 15 touchdowns via handoffs this year. The Rebels are logging 158.3 rush yards per game (108 in conference) and have 13 total rushing TDs.
If 2019 numbers can translate to this game, then the Spartans ought to own an edge when it comes to quarterback protection, as their offensive line has allowed just 39 sacks while their D-line logged 11 sacks. The Rebels offensive line has allowed 31 sacks and their defense has sacked opposing QBs on just 21 occasions.
The Spartans offensive scheme has averaged 330.1 yards in the air overall (354.7 per game versus conference opposition) and has 21 passing scores so far. The Rebels have produced 204.2 pass yards per contest (239 in the MWC) and have 15 total pass TDs.
Defensively, San Jose State has let opponents rush for an average of 234.5 yards and pass for 217.3 yards per game. The UNLV defense has allowed 225.8 yards per game to opposing passers and 202.7 yards per game on the ground. The Spartans are allowing an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of just 5.85 to opposing QBs, while the Rebels have given up a 7.08 ANY/A.
Offensively, Love has already put up 2,730 passing yards on the year, and has connected on 60 percent of his 338 attempts with 17 passing scores and only three interceptions. Love has a pristine 8.27 adjusted net yards per pass attempt, including 8.35 over the last two outings.
Tre Walker (703 receiving yards, one receiving touchdown this season), DeJon Packer (368 rush yards, seven rush TDs, 157 receiving yards) and Bailey Gaither (565 receiving yards, five TDs) have each played key roles of late.
In the other locker room, Kenyon Oblad has completed 108-of-211 passes for 1,369 yards, 11 TDs and eight INTs. Oblad’s ANY/A stands at 5.21 for the year and 5.01 over his past two outings.
We’re looking for the Rebels to control tempo by putting the ball into the hands of their running backs. Along with TE Giovanni Fauolo Sr. (218 receiving yards, two receiving TDs this season), Charles Williams (850 rush yards, seven rush TDs) and Chad Magyar (280 rush yards, one rush TD) have delivered significant production to the Rebels’ recent offensive gameplans.
These two squads faced off a year ago with the final outcome being a 50-37 win for San Jose State.
San Jose State Spartans at UNLV Rebels Bedding Prediction
SU Winner: San Jose State, ATS Winner: San Jose State, O/U: Under
Betting Trends
- The UNLV offense has lost six fumbles this season while San Jose State has lost four.
- The San Jose State defense has 15 sacks on the year while UNLV has 10.
- As a team, San Jose State has averaged 4.0 yards per rush attempt over its last three games and 3.7 over its last two.
- UNLV has averaged 3.8 yards per carry over its last three contests and 3.9 over its past two.
- Over its last three contests, UNLV is 1-2 ATS and the under cashed in each of those three.
- The O/U for San Jose State’s last game going into it was 78.5. The over cashed in the team’s 42-40 loss to Hawaii.
- Over its last three games, San Jose State is 3-0 ATS and the over cashed in each of those three.
- The Over/Under for UNLV’s last outing was set at 71. The under cashed in the 21-7 loss to Hawaii.
- San Jose State has lost five of its last six games SU, with a five-point victory over Army West Point on October 26th representing the only win over that stretch.
- UNLV has lost nine of its last 10 games SU, with a 24-point win over Vanderbilt on October 12th representing the only victory over that stretch.
