The Philadelphia Phillies are set to face off against the San Diego Padres at Citizens Bank Park. NBC Sports Philadelphia will be airing this NL matchup and the action gets underway at 1:05 p.m. ET.
San Diego Padres at Philadelphia Phillies Odds
Each team is receiving identical odds (-105) if you are wanting to play the moneyline and oddsmakers have set the Over/Under for this afternoon game at 9.5 runs. The odds for betting on the game’s total currently sit at -110 for both the over and the under. You can also bet on the game’s runline with the current odds coming in at Padres -1.5 runs (+140) and Phillies +1.5 runs (-160).
The Padres have gone 57-65 SU this year and are 55-66 against the spread (ATS). They’ve lost 13.7 units for moneyline gamblers and 16.8 units ATS. San Diego is 3-4 ATS over its last seven games and the over has hit in six of those seven. The Phillies, on the other hand, are 64-59 SU and 57-65 ATS. They’ve lost 2.6 units for bettors taking the moneyline and 8.3 units ATS. Philadelphia has covered the spread five times in its last seven games and the total has gone over in five of those seven.
Philadelphia games have an over/under record of 59-59-4 in 2019. Padres games have gone over 60 times, gone under 54 times and pushed on seven instances.
Left-hander Joey Lucchesi is projected to start for the visiting Padres. Lucchesi is 7-7 with a 4.25 ERA and 125 strikeouts. He has yet to face the Phillies this year and only made one start against them in 2018 (1-0, 0.00 ERA and six strikeouts across six innings).
The Phillies are turning to lefty Jason Vargas (6-6, 4.03 ERA), who has 88 strikeouts and 46 walks, along with a 1.26 WHIP. Vargas is 1-0 with eight strikeouts and a 0.00 ERA in one start against San Diego this year.
Philadelphia’s pitchers have given up 4.9 runs per game overall this season as a unit. Its starting pitching staff has a 4.57 ERA, 1.35 WHIP and 8.1 strikeouts per nine innings. The bullpen has a 4.65 ERA, 1.43 WHIP and 9.0 K/9.
Philadelphia’s offense has put up 4.8 runs per contest, including 5.0 per game over its last 10 games and 6.6 per game over its last five. The team has hit .296/.357/.550 over its last five matchups and is 4-1 SU during that span.
Second baseman Cesar Hernandez and shortstop Jean Segura have paced the Phillies’ offense this year. Hernandez is hitting .281/.329/.397 with eight home runs, 53 RBIs and 54 runs scored, while Segura is batting .283 with 11 homers, 48 RBIs and 65 runs.
For the visiting squad, San Diego’s pitching staff allowed 4.9 runs per game and its starters own a 4.48 ERA, 1.26 WHIP and 8.34 K/9. The bullpen has an ERA of 4.77, along with a K-per-9 of 9.89.
The Padres offense has slashed .247/.315/.431 on its way to 4.5 runs scored per game in 2019, including 5.4 runs per game over the team’s last 10 games and 5.0 per game over the team’s last five outings (2-3 SU).
San Diego’s offense has been sparked by first baseman Eric Hosmer and third baseman Manny Machado, who’ve collectively belted 44 home runs. Hosmer is slashing .290/.336/.456 with 18 home runs, 82 RBIs and 63 runs scored, while Machado is hitting .264/.334/.474 with 26 homers, 70 RBIs and 67 runs scored.
The Padres have lost 8.9 units and are 13-13 ATS when facing a lefty starter this season. The over has cashed in 10 of those games, compared to 15 that’ve gone under in such games. On the other hand, the Phillies have lost 6.5 units and are 13-19 ATS when facing a lefty starter. The over’s hit in 16 of those games, compared to 16 that went under the total.
Padres at Phillies Free MLB Pick
Predictions: SU Winner – Phillies, ATS Winner – Phillies, O/U – OVER
Betting Trends
- The over has cashed in five of Philadelphia’s last seven games.
- The Padres have hit 12 home runs in their last 10 games. The Phillies have hit 13 over their last 10.
- The Padres have an OPS of .746 this season and an OPS of .788 against left-handed pitchers. The Phillies’ OPS stands at .746 overall and .777 against lefties.
- Philadelphia has posted 20.8 Runs + Hits + Errors per game over its last 10 games and 26.6 over its last five.
