The Sacramento Kings (3-3), 8-point underdogs, will travel to AmericanAirlines Arena to take on the Miami Heat (3-2). The game’s Over/Under (O/U) has been set at 227 points and it will air on Fox Sports – Seattle at 7:30 p.m. ET on Monday, October 29, 2018.
Sacramento Kings at Miami Heat ATS Odds
Both teams covered in their last outing. The Heat (1.5-point favorites) defeated the Portland Trail Blazers 120-111, while the Kings (5-point underdog) beat the Washington Wizards 116-112. The Miami game finished 11 points over the projected point total of 220, while the Sacramento game finished 8.5 points under the projected point total of 236.5.
The Kings, who came into the game averaging an offensive rebounding percentage of 21.6, had a superb mark of 27.5, while the Wizards had a turnover percentage of 17.9 (above their season average of 9.9). Miami, meanwhile, out-rebounded Portland. The Heat had 16 offensive rebounds and 56 total rebounds, while the Trail Blazers had eight and 42, respectively. Goran Dragic fueled Miami with 28 points and five assists. Nemanja Bjelica, meanwhile had a good game for Sacramento, finishing with 26 points and 12 rebounds.
From an effective field goal percentage perspective, Miami should have a considerable edge. Since last season, the Heat defense ranks fifth in effective field goal percentage allowed (0.506), while the Sacramento offense ranks 26th in effective field goal percentage (0.506). ,
Vegas has a tendency to set the total low when the Kings are involved, as four of their 6 games have gone over the total. Sacramento heads into the contest with records of 3-3 straight up (SU) and 4-2 against the spread (ATS).
Heat games also have a tendency to go over the O/U total (60.0 percent). Further, Miami owns records of 3-2 SU and 3-2 ATS.
The Kings dominated this series last year, winning both games. In the last matchup, Sacramento won 123-119. The Kings’ turnover percentage was their biggest advantage over the Heat. Sacramento had a rate of 9.5, while Miami posted a mark of 11.5.
Sacramento Kings vs. Miami Heat Odds Pick
Free NBA Tip: SU Winner – Heat, ATS Winner – Kings, O/U – Under
Betting Notes (2017-Present):
- Miami ranks sixth in three pointers allowed per game (27.1) while Sacramento ranks 29th (31.7).
- The Heat rank 17th in rebounds per game (43.8) while the Kings rank 28th (41.2).
- Sacramento ranks 18th in fast break points per game (11.1) while Miami ranks 26th (9.8).
- Miami ranks 24th in second chance points per game (11.4) while Sacramento ranks 25th (11.3).
- The Heat rank fifth in blocks per game (5.5) while the Kings rank 25th (4.2).
- The Kings rank 11th in steals per game (7.8) while the Heat rank 14th in steals allowed per game (7.5).
- Miami ranks third in assists allowed per game (21.2) while Sacramento ranks 19th (23.7).
- In games where they allow under 100 points, Sacramento is 19-7 and Miami is 28-6.
- The Kings are 19-24 when they score over 100 points, while the Heat are 36-23.
