The Providence Friars (14-6, 5-2 Big East) will attempt to snap the five-game winning streak of Villanova when they travel to Wells Fargo Center to square off with the No. 1 Wildcats (18-1, 5-1 Big East). Villanova is a 14.5-point favorite on the opening line, while the Over/Under (O/U) for the game opened at 151 points. Tip-off is set for 6:30 p.m. ET on Tuesday, January 23, 2018.
Providence Friars vs. Villanova Wildcats ATS Preview
The last time the Friars played, they were victorious over the Creighton Bluejays, 85-71. Alpha Diallo was Providence’s leading scorer with 21 points on 9-for-15 shooting. Providence dominated nearly every stat category in the game. They had a superb free throw rate of 0.293 (above their season average of 0.283) and an offensive rebounding percentage of 25.9 (below their season average of 28.9). For those same stats, Creighton recorded marks of 0.182 and 17.5, respectively.
The Wildcats will look to keep it rolling after dismantling the Connecticut Huskies in their last outing, 81-61. Villanova was lifted by Jalen Brunson, who was the games high scorer with 23 points on 9-for-16 shooting. The Wildcats, who came into the game averaging an offensive rebounding percentage of 28.8, had a fantastic mark of 40.0 and held the Huskies to an effective field goal percentage of 0.393 (below their season average of 0.459).
The high-powered offense of Villanova (second in the nation with an offensive efficiency of 125.3) will clash against the mid-tier defense of Providence (139th in the nation with a defensive efficiency of 101.1). The Wildcats figure to have the advantage on that side of the ball. Moreover, the Friars rank 44th in free throw attempt (FTA) rate (0.284), while the Wildcats rank ninth in opponents FTA rate (0.166).
Both of these teams have typically finished over the O/U total. Providence games have finished over 61.1 percent of the time, while games featuring Villanova have finished over 55.6 percent of the time. The Wildcats come into this game with a clear advantage in both straight up (SU) and against the spread (ATS) records. They are 18-1 SU and 13-6 ATS, while the Friars are 14-6 SU and 7-11 ATS.
Both teams have had a player trending in the right direction over their last five games. For the Friars, it’s been Diallo, who has averaged 12.6 points, 6.0 rebounds and 1.4 steals, while the Wildcats have gotten solid contributions from Donte DiVincenzo (15.8 points, 3.2 assists and 1.8 steals).
This will be the first matchup of the year between these two teams. The Wildcats won both meetings played against each other last season. In the most recent matchup, Villanova won 66-57. Villanova’s 0.527 effective field goal percentage was its biggest advantage over Providence, who had a mark of 0.434.
Providence Friars at Villanova Wildcats ATS Prediction
Predictions: SU Winner – Villanova, ATS Winner – Villanova, O/U – Under
Betting Notes:
- The Wildcats rank 40th in blocks allowed per game (2.7) while the Friars rank 61st (3.0).
- Providence is 3-5 ATS on the road, while Villanova is 3-3 ATS at home.
- The Friars have 4 overs and 4 unders in 8 road games.
- In 6 home games, the Wildcats have 3 overs and 2 unders.
- Villanova ranks 17th in three pointers attempted per game (28.0) while Providence ranks 231st (18.4).
- The Wildcats rank 19th in steals allowed per game (4.9) while the Friars rank 116th (6.5).
- Villanova ranks 15th in assists per game (17.6) while Providence ranks 88th (14.8).
Betting Trends:
- Villanova is 3-2 ATS with 4 unders and 1 over in their last five games.
- Over their last five games, Providence is 4-1 ATS with 3 unders and 2 overs.
- The Wildcats average margin of victory in their last five games has been 18.6, down from 19.5 for the season.
- During their last five games, the Friars have scored an average of 79.4 points per game (2.5 above their season average) and allowed an average of 72.4 points per game (0.9 above their season average).
