Portland Trail Blazers at Miami Heat Free Prediction 01/05/20

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A five-game home winning streak hangs in the balance for the Miami Heat (25-10), who will be 5.5-point favorites when they go head-to-head with the Portland Trail Blazers (15-21) at AmericanAirlines Arena. The game’s Over/Under (O/U) opened at 221 points and it will air on Fox Sports Sun at 6 p.m. ET on Sunday, January 5, 2020.

Portland Trail Blazers vs. Miami Heat Betting Odds

The Trail Blazers won big over the Washington Wizards in their last contest, 122-103, comfortably covering as 7.5-point favorites. The Heat, meanwhile, were blown out by the Orlando Magic, 105-85, and were not able to cover as 1.5-point underdogs. The Portland game went 7.5 points under the projected point total of 232.5, while the Miami game finished 16 points under the projected point total of 206.

Portland played a nearly perfect game. They had a great free throw rate of 0.295 (above their season average of 0.191) and a turnover percentage of 6.4 (better than their season average of 11.5). For those same stats, Washington was 0.178 and 10.6, respectively. Miami, meanwhile, held Orlando to an offensive rebounding percentage of 15.2 (below their season average of 21.7). Jimmy Butler played well for Miami with 23 points, 10 rebounds and seven assists. Hassan Whiteside, meanwhile played well for Portland, contributing 23 points, 21 rebounds and five blocks.

The Heat dominated this series last year, winning both contests. In the most recent contest, Miami won 118-108. Miami was effective at getting to and converting from the free throw line. The Heat made 21 of their 25 free throws (84.0 percent), while the Trail Blazers were 9-12 (75.0 percent). This will be the first matchup of the year between these two teams.

Trail Blazers games have no tendency in regards to the O/U total, as there has been an even split between games finishing over and under. Portland heads into the contest with records of 15-21 straight up (SU) and 14-20-2 against the spread (ATS).

Heat games have typically gone over the total (57.1 percent). Moreover, Miami owns records of 25-10 SU and 19-14-2 ATS.

The aggressive Miami offense might be getting to the free throw line a lot in this contest. The Heat currently rank first in the league with a free throw attempt (FTA) rate of 0.241, while Portland ranks 23rd in FTA rate allowed (0.218). Moreover, the Trail Blazers, who rank 22nd in offensive rebounding percentage (22.1 percent), could have a tough time getting second chance points against the Heat, who rank third in defensive rebounding percentage (79.5 percent).

Trail Blazers at Heat Odds Pick

Prediction: SU Winner – Heat, ATS Winner – Heat, O/U – Over

Betting Notes:

  • The Trail Blazers rank 17th in fast break points per game (12.7) while the Heat rank 25th (10.9).
  • Miami ranks second in rebounds allowed per game (41.7) while Portland ranks 29th (47.7).
  • The Heat rank 11th in assists per game (24.8) while the Trail Blazers rank last (19.6).
  • Miami ranks 10th in second chance points allowed per game (12.7) while Portland ranks 28th (15.9).
  • Portland averages 33.3 three pointers per game, which ranks 15th in the league. Miami ranks 28th in three pointers allowed per game (37.3).
  • The Trail Blazers rank fourth in points off turnovers allowed per game (14.8) while the Heat rank 27th (19.2).
  • The Heat rank 12th in steals per game (7.8) while the Trail Blazers rank 27th (5.9).
  • Miami ranks 21st in points in the paint per game (45.3) while Portland ranks 28th (43.5).
  • Portland ranks third in blocks per game (6.5) while Miami ranks 25th (4.1).
  • When allowing below 100 points, Portland is 3-0 and Miami is 5-1.
  • When scoring above 100 points, the Trail Blazers are 15-15 and the Heat are 24-5.
  • Miami is 11-5-1 ATS at home, while Portland is 8-10-1 ATS on the road.
  • The Trail Blazers have 11 unders, 7 overs and 1 push in 19 road games.
  • The Heat have 11 overs and 6 unders in 17 home games.

Bettings Trends:

  • In their last five games, Portland and Miami are both 1-4 ATS with 3 overs and 2 unders.
  • During their last five games, the Trail Blazers have scored an average of 113.2 points per game (0.9 above their season average) and allowed an average of 118.2 points per game (4.5 above their season average).
  • The Heat have been outscored by an average of 5.6 points in their last five games. On the season, Miami has defeated opponents by an average of 3.6 points.