The Pittsburgh Pirates will travel across the state to face off against the Philadelphia Phillies at Citizens Bank Park. This NL matchup starts at 7:05 p.m. ET and fans can catch it on either ATPT or NSPA.
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Philadelphia Phillies Odds
Oddsmakers have listed Philadelphia (-120) as the favorite over Pittsburgh (+110). If you think this game’s total will go under 9.5 runs, bookmakers are currently offering even money odds (+100). Picking the over will return -120 odds. Gamblers can also bet on the game’s runline with the most recent odds sitting at Pirates +1.5 runs (-190) and Phillies -1.5 runs (+165).
The Pirates have gone 55-75 SU this year and are 61-68 against the spread (ATS). They’ve lost 11.6 units for bettors taking the moneyline and 23.1 units ATS. Pittsburgh has covered the spread only twice over its last seven games and the under has hit in four of those seven. The Phillies, on the other hand, are 67-62 SU and 60-68 ATS. They’ve lost 3.2 units for moneyline bettors and 8.3 units ATS. Philadelphia has covered the spread four times in its last seven games and the under has cashed in four of those seven.
Philadelphia games have a 61-63-4 over/under record in 2019. The Pirates have been a solid over bet with a total record of 72-51-6.
Right-hander Joe Musgrove is getting the nod for the visiting Pirates. Musgrove (8-12, 4.74 ERA) has racked up 125 strikeouts in 142.1 innings so far. He’s 1-0 with eight strikeouts and a 0.00 ERA against Philadelphia this year.
The Phillies are putting the ball in the left hand of Jason Vargas (6-6, 3.99 ERA), who’s got 92 strikeouts and 48 walks this season as well as a 1.27 WHIP. Vargas is 1-0 with five strikeouts and a 4.76 ERA in one start against Pittsburgh this year.
As a unit, Philadelphia’s pitching staff has given up 5.0 runs per game overall in 2019. Its starters have a 4.60 ERA, 1.35 WHIP and 8.1 strikeouts per nine innings. The bullpen has a 4.64 ERA, 1.43 WHIP and 9.1 K/9.
The Philadelphia offense has produced 4.8 runs per outing, including 6.1 per game over its last 10 games and 6.0 per game over its last five. The team has a slash-line of .234/.358/.398 over its last five games and is 3-2 SU during that span.
The Phillies’ offense has been led by second baseman Cesar Hernandez and shortstop Jean Segura. Hernandez is hitting .283/.335/.397 with eight home runs, 54 RBIs and 59 runs scored, and Segura’s line is .287/.335/.434 with 11 homers, 52 RBIs and 69 runs.
In the visiting dugout, Pittsburgh’s pitching staff allowed 5.5 runs per game and its starters own a 5.23 ERA, 1.42 WHIP and 8.39 K/9. The bullpen has managed an ERA of 4.81, along with a WHIP of 1.42 and a K/9 of 9.83.
Pirates hitters have slashed .263/.323/.422 on their way to 4.6 runs scored per game in 2019, including 3.6 runs per game over the team’s last 10 games and 5.6 per game over the team’s last five contests (3-2 SU).
Pittsburgh’s offense has been powered by right fielder Starling Marte and first baseman Josh Bell, who’ve collectively launched 54 home runs. Marte is slashing .289/.332/.499 with 22 home runs, 76 RBIs, 87 runs and 24 steals, while Bell is hitting .273/.358/.569 with 32 homers, 103 RBIs and 86 runs scored.
The Pirates have lost 7.7 units and are 14-20 ATS when facing a left-handed starting pitcher this season. The over has hit in 23 of those games, compared to 10 that’ve hit the under against lefties. On the other hand, the Phillies have netted 3.5 units and are 46-48 ATS when facing a righty starter. The over has cashed in 45 of those games, compared to 45 that went under the total.
Pirates at Phillies MLB Prediction
Predictions: SU Winner – Phillies, ATS Winner – Pirates, O/U – UNDER
Betting Trends
- The over has hit in three of Pittsburgh’s last seven contests.
- The Pirates have a team OPS of .745 this season and an OPS of .632 when facing left-handed pitchers. The Phillies’ OPS sits at .744 overall and .771 against lefties.
- Pittsburgh has recorded 17.6 Runs + Hits + Errors per game over its last 10 contests and 22.8 over its last five.
- The Pirates have hit five home runs in their last 10 games, including three over their last five.
