The Denver Nuggets (1-0), 9.5-point favorites, get their home schedule started at Pepsi Center against the Phoenix Suns (1-0). The game’s Over/Under (O/U) has been set at 224.5 points and it can be seen on Altitude Sports & Entertainmnt at 9 p.m. ET on Saturday, October 20, 2018.
Phoenix Suns vs. Denver Nuggets ATS Odds
Both teams covered in their last matchup. The Nuggets (2-point favorites) defeated the Los Angeles Clippers 107-98, while the Suns (2.5-point underdog) beat the Dallas Mavericks 121-100. The Denver game finished 17.5 points under the projected point total of 222.5, while the Phoenix game finished 8.5 points over the projected point total of 212.5.
The Suns had a much better effective field goal percentage (0.660 vs. 0.489) and had a better free throw rate (0.173 vs. 0.159). Meanwhile, Denver dominated nearly every facet of their game. They had a free throw rate of 0.379 and an offensive rebounding percentage of 26.9. For those same stats, Los Angeles was 0.230 and 17.6, respectively. Denver was lifted by Nikola Jokic, who contributed 21 points, eight rebounds and five assists. Devin Booker fueled Phoenix with 35 points and seven assists.
Denver could own the offensive glass in this showdown. Since last season, the Nuggets rank second in offensive rebounding percentage (25.7 percent), while Phoenix ranks 23rd in defensive rebounding percentage (76.5 percent).
Since last season, the Suns have had records of 22-61 straight up (SU) and 41-40-2 against the spread (ATS). Since last season, Phoenix games have gone over the projected point total 59.0 percent of the time.
Meanwhile, the Nuggets, are 47-36 SU and 46-35-2 ATS since last season. Denver’s games have had a tendency to finish over the O/U total over that same period (60.2 percent).
The Nuggets edged out the Suns in this series last year, winning two out of three games. In the most recent matchup, Denver won 123-113. One of Denver’s biggest advantages was their ability to convert at the free throw line. They were 20-22 (90.9 percent), while the Suns were just 14-25 (56.0 percent).
Phoenix Suns vs. Denver Nuggets Betting Pick
Free Pick: SU Winner – Nuggets, ATS Winner – Suns, O/U – Over
Betting Notes (2017-Present):
- The Nuggets rank 14th in steals per game (7.6) while the Suns rank 29th in steals allowed per game (8.7).
- Denver ranks first in rebounds allowed per game (41.7) while Phoenix ranks 26th (45.8).
- The Nuggets average 13.4 fast break points per game, which ranks eighth in the NBA. The Suns rank 28th in fast break points allowed per game (14.5).
- Denver averages 16.9 points off turnovers per game, which ranks 10th in the league. Phoenix ranks 29th in points off turnovers allowed per game (18.6).
- Denver averages 48.9 points in the paint per game, which ranks fifth in the NBA. Phoenix ranks 23rd in points allowed in the paint per game (47.2).
- The Nuggets rank fourth in assists per game (25.0) while the Suns rank 27th (21.4).
- The Nuggets rank 12th in blocks per game (5.0) while the Suns rank last in blocks allowed per game (5.9).
- Denver ranks eighth in three pointers attempted per game (30.8) while Phoenix ranks 14th in three pointers allowed per game (29.3).
- Denver averages 14.0 second chance points per game, which ranks third in the league. Phoenix ranks 23rd in second chance points allowed per game (13.1).
- Phoenix is 8-2 when they hold opponents under 100 points, while Denver is 16-2.
- The Suns are 17-36 when they score above 100 points, while the Nuggets are 40-26.
