The Phoenix Suns (19-27), 7-point underdogs, will travel to the American Airlines Center to take on the Dallas Mavericks (29-17). The game’s Over/Under (O/U) has been set at 230.5 points and it can be seen on Fox Sports – Arizona at 8:30 p.m. ET on Tuesday, January 28, 2020.
Phoenix Suns vs. Dallas Mavericks ATS Odds
The Mavericks were victorious over the Oklahoma City Thunder in their last game, 107-97, despite being 3.5-point underdogs. The Suns, on the other hand, were topped by the Memphis Grizzlies, 114-109, and failed to cover as 2-point underdogs. The Dallas game went 23 points under the projected point total of 227, while the Phoenix game finished 6.5 points under the projected point total of 229.5.
Dallas played a nearly perfect game. They had an offensive rebounding percentage of 22.2 (below their season average of 24.8) and a turnover percentage of 6.4 (better than their season average of 10.8). Oklahoma City recorded marks of 12.0 and 7.8, respectively, for those same stats. Phoenix, on the other hand, forced Memphis into a turnover percentage of 20.8 (above their season average of 12.8). Dallas rallied around Luka Doncic, who had 29 points, 11 rebounds and five assists. Deandre Ayton was a key piece for Phoenix with 17 points and 15 rebounds.
In their first matchup this season, Doncic led the Mavericks to a 120-113 victory. He notched a double-double with 42 points and 11 assists. Dallas covered as a 2.5-point favorite and the two teams combined to put up 233 points, which was just over the projected point total of 229.5. Dallas was successful at getting and making free throws. The Mavericks made 33 of their 38 free throws (86.8 percent), while the Suns were 18-25 (72.0 percent).
Vegas has typically been fairly accurate when setting the total of Suns games, with 24 overs compared to 22 unders. Phoenix comes into the contest with records of 19-27 straight up (SU) and 23-22-1 against the spread (ATS).
Of the Mavericks’ 45 games with betting action, 27 have finished over the total. Additionally, Dallas owns records of 29-17 SU and 26-19 ATS.
Looking at effective field goal percentage, Dallas figures to have a considerable advantage. The elite Mavericks offense ranks fifth in the league in that metric at 0.545, while the porous Phoenix defense is ranked 25th in effective field goal percentage allowed (0.540).
Phoenix Suns at Dallas Mavericks Odds Pick
Prediction: SU Winner – Mavericks, ATS Winner – Mavericks, O/U – Over
Betting Notes:
- The Suns rank second in assists per game (27.1) while the Mavericks rank 14th (24.1).
- Dallas ranks first in blocks allowed per game (3.8) while Phoenix ranks 27th (5.8).
- The Suns rank fourth in points off turnovers per game (18.5) while the Mavericks rank 25th (15.2).
- Dallas ranks fourth in rebounds per game (47.6) while Phoenix ranks 22nd (43.8).
- Phoenix ranks 12th in steals per game (7.8) while Dallas ranks 27th (6.2).
- The Mavericks rank first in second chance points per game (15.0) while the Suns rank 23rd (12.2).
- The Mavericks rank second in three pointers attempted per game (41.4) while the Suns rank 18th (32.3).
- Phoenix ranks 14th in points in the paint per game (47.9) while Dallas ranks 25th (45.1).
- Phoenix ranks seventh in fast break points allowed per game (12.0) while Dallas ranks 29th (16.1).
- Dallas is 8-0 when they hold opponents below 100 points, while Phoenix is 6-2.
- In games where they score above 100 points, the Suns are 18-22 and the Mavericks are 29-15.
- Phoenix is 13-8 ATS on the road, while Dallas is 10-14 ATS at home.
- In 21 road games, the Suns have 12 unders and 9 overs.
- In 24 home games, the Mavericks have 14 overs and 10 unders.
Bettings Trends:
- The Mavericks are 3-2 ATS over their last five games, while the Suns are 2-3.
- In their last five games, Dallas has 3 overs and 2 unders, while Phoenix has 3 unders and 2 overs.
- The Mavericks’ average margin of victory in their last five games has been 3.6, down from 6.9 for the season.
- During their last five games, the Suns have scored an average of 108.0 points per game (4.7 below their season average) and allowed an average of 112.8 points per game (0.9 below their season average).
