The Philadelphia Phillies will pay a visit to Flushing to play their NL East rival Mets at Citi Field. SportsNet New York will televise the matchup. The game is slated to get underway at 7:10 p.m. ET.
Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets Odds
Oddsmakers are listing Philadelphia (+182) as the underdog to New York (-195). If you think the game’s total will go under 8 runs, Vegas is currently offering -115 odds. Playing the over will return -105 odds. You can also bet on the game’s runline with the odds sitting at -120 for the Phillies +1.5 runs and +100 for the Mets -1.5 runs.
The Mets are 39-48 straight up (SU) and 41-46 against the spread (ATS). They’ve lost 16.1 units for moneyline bettors and 12.4 units ATS. New York has covered the spread four times in its last seven games and the under has hit in four of those seven. The Phillies are 45-42 SU and have gone 41-45 against the spread. In total, the team’s lost 4.7 units for moneyline gamblers and 4.6 units ATS. Philadelphia is 3-4 ATS over its last seven games and the under has cashed in three of those seven.
New York games have an over/under record of 47-32-8 thus far in 2019. Philadelphia has an over/under record of 40-42-4.
Vince Velasquez will get the start for the visiting Phillies. The right-handed Velasquez (2-5, 4.73 ERA) has racked up 60 strikeouts in 51.1 innings so far. He’s 1-0 with six strikeouts and a 0.00 ERA against New York this year.
The Mets are putting the ball in the right hand of Jacob deGrom (4-7, 3.32 ERA, 1.11 WHIP), who’s got 128 strikeouts and 22 walks this season. deGrom hasn’t faced the Phillies yet this year, but he made three starts against them in 2018, posting a 1-0 record with a 0.00 ERA and 18 strikeouts.
New York’s pitchers have allowed 5.1 runs per game overall in 2019 as a unit. The team’s starting pitching staff has an ERA of 4.38, a WHIP of 1.28 and a strikeouts-per-nine of 9.2. The bullpen has a 5.58 ERA, 1.54 WHIP and 9.4 K/9. In 41 games against NL East foes, Mets starters have an ERA of 4.60 and the bullpen’s ERA is 5.71.
New York’s hitters have put up 4.7 runs per contest, including 5.0 per game against divisional foes and 3.8 per game over their last five. The team has a slash-line of .277/.324/.405 over its last five games and is 2-3 SU during that span.
The Mets’ offense has been led by outfielder Jeff McNeil and first baseman Pete Alonso. McNeil is slashing .349/.411/.516 with seven home runs, 35 RBIs and 38 runs scored, and Alonso’s line is .278/.372/.623 with 28 homers, 64 RBIs and 55 runs scored.
In the visiting dugout, Philadelphia’s pitching staff allowed 4.9 runs per game and its starters own a 4.56 ERA, 1.36 WHIP and 8.09 K/9. The bullpen has managed an ERA of 4.90, along with a WHIP of 1.36 and a K/9 of 9.26.
The Phillies offense has slashed .244/.325/.420 on its way to 4.9 runs scored per game in 2019, including 5.3 runs per game against divisional foes and 5.8 per game over the team’s last five outings (2-3 SU).
Second baseman Cesar Hernandez and shortstop Jean Segura have led Philadelphia’s offense. Hernandez is slashing .280/.333/.419 with seven home runs, 39 RBIs and 41 runs scored, while Segura is hitting .274/.319/.448 with 10 homers, 38 RBIs and 52 runs scored.
The Phillies have gained 0.6 units and are 30-33 ATS when facing a right-handed starting pitcher this season. The over has cashed in 28 of those games, compared to 31 that’ve hit the under against righties. On the other hand, the Mets have lost 15.7 units and are 29-37 ATS when facing a righty starter. The over’s hit in 36 of those games, compared to 24 that went under the total.
Phillies at Mets MLB Prediction
Predictions: SU Winner – Mets, ATS Winner – Phillies, O/U – OVER
Betting Notes
- The over has cashed in just two of Philadelphia’s last seven outings.
- The Phillies have a team OPS of .745 this season and an OPS of .732 against right-handed pitchers. The Mets’ OPS sits at .760 overall and .739 versus righties.
- Philadelphia has recorded 25.4 Runs + Hits + Errors per game over its last 10 contests and 25.8 over its last five.
- The Phillies have hit 18 home runs in their last 10 games. The Mets have hit 16 over their last 10.
