Cesar Hernandez and the Philadelphia Phillies will head south to Marlins Park to take on their NL East rival Miami Marlins. The matchup will begin at 7:10 p.m. ET and NBC Sports Philadelphia will be televising the game.
Philadelphia Phillies at Miami Marlins Odds
Philadelphia (-175) is entering this game as the favorite over Miami (+165) and oddsmakers have put the Over/Under for this night game at nine runs (+100 for the over and -120 for the under). This game currently has a runline of Phillies -1.5 (-120) and Marlins +1.5 (+100).
The Marlins are 45-81 straight up (SU) and 62-63 against the spread (ATS). They’ve lost 10.2 units for moneyline bettors and 10.7 units ATS. Miami has covered the spread only twice in its last seven games and the under has hit in four of those seven. The Phillies are 66-60 SU and have gone 59-67 against the spread. Overall, the team’s lost 2.5 units for moneyline gamblers and 8.3 units ATS. Philadelphia has covered the spread five times in its last seven games and the under has hit in four of those seven.
Marlins games have an over/under record of 57-58-10 in 2019. Philadelphia has an over/under record of 59-63-4.
Vince Velasquez will get the start for the visiting Phillies. The right-handed Velasquez is 5-7 with a 4.35 ERA and 96 strikeouts. He’s 0-1 with 15 strikeouts and a 3.52 ERA against Miami this year (three starts).
The Marlins are handing the ball to righty Hector Noesi (0-3, 9.39 ERA), who’s got 13 strikeouts and nine walks as well as a 1.50 WHIP. Noesi has yet to face the Phillies this year and did not record any MLB appearances last season.
Philadelphia’s pitching staff allowed 4.9 runs per game and its starters own a 4.54 ERA, 1.35 WHIP and 8.14 K/9. The bullpen has an ERA of 4.55, along with a K-per-9 of 9.05.
Phillies hitters have slashed .245/.323/.419 on their way to 4.8 runs scored per game this year, including 5.2 runs per game against divisional foes and 4.2 per game over the team’s last five contests (3-2 SU).
Second baseman Cesar Hernandez and shortstop Jean Segura have led Philadelphia’s hitters. Hernandez is slashing .284/.332/.399 with eight home runs, 53 RBIs and 55 runs scored, while Segura (.283/.330/.431) is up to 11 homers, 52 RBIs and 66 runs scored.
In the other dugout, Miami’s pitchers have given up 4.9 runs per game overall in 2019. Its starters have an ERA of 4.37, a WHIP of 1.26 and a strikeouts-per-nine of 8.3. The bullpen has a 5.13 ERA, 1.46 WHIP and 9.4 K/9. In 60 games against divisional foes, Marlins starters have an ERA of 4.83 and the bullpen’s ERA is 4.83.
The Miami hitters are putting up 3.6 runs per outing, including 3.5 per game against divisional foes and 2.6 per game over their last five. The team has hit .231/.281/.347 over its last five contests and is 0-5 SU during that span.
The Marlins’ batters have been led by second baseman Starlin Castro and third baseman Brian Anderson. Castro is hitting .262/.285/.380 with 11 home runs, 60 RBIs and 41 runs scored, and Anderson’s line sits at .261/.340/.468 with 20 homers, 65 RBIs and 56 runs.
The Phillies have gained 4.2 units and are 45-47 ATS when facing a righty starter this season. The over has hit in 43 of those games, compared to 45 that’ve gone under in such games. On the other hand, the Marlins have lost 8.2 units and are 43-49 ATS when facing a righty starter. The over has cashed in 39 of those games, compared to 46 that’ve gone under.
Phillies at Marlins MLB Pick
Predictions: SU Winner – Phillies, ATS Winner – Phillies, O/U – OVER
Betting Trends
- Philadelphia has tallied 17 extra-base hits over its last five games. Miami has 14 XBH over its last five.
- The Marlins have dropped nine of their last 10 games SU.
- The Philadelphia defense has permitted three errors over the last 10 games, compared to nine errors for Miami over its last 10.
- The Phillies have hit 11 home runs in their last 10 games. The Marlins have hit four over their last 10.
- The Phillies have an OPS of .742 this season and an OPS of .732 against right-handed pitchers. The Marlins’ OPS sits at .663 overall and .651 against righties.
