The Philadelphia Phillies are heading south to SunTrust Park to play their division rival Atlanta Braves. NBC Sports Philadelphia will be televising the matchup and the game is slated to get underway at 7:20 p.m. ET.
Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves Odds
Atlanta (receiving -180 odds) is a sizable favorite against Philadelphia and Vegas has put the Over/Under for this night game at 10 runs (+100 for the over and -120 for the under). The game’s runline odds stand at -130 for picking the Phillies +1.5 runs and +110 for the Braves -1.5.
The Braves are 93-58 straight up (SU) and 76-75 against the spread (ATS). They’ve gained 23.4 units for moneyline bettors and 1.8 units ATS. Atlanta has covered the spread four times in its last seven games and the total went over in four of those seven. The Phillies are 76-72 SU and have gone 70-78 ATS. Overall, the team’s lost 5.7 units for bettors taking the moneyline and 9.2 units ATS. Philadelphia is 3-4 ATS over its last seven games and the total has gone over in four of those seven.
Braves games have an over/under record of 73-70-8 in 2019. The Phillies have an over/under record of 70-74-4.
Vince Velasquez is getting the nod for the visiting Phillies. The right-handed Velasquez is 6-7 with a 4.95 ERA and 113 strikeouts. He’s 0-1 with five strikeouts and a 13.50 ERA against Atlanta this year.
The Braves are countering with Dallas Keuchel (8-5, 3.35 ERA). Keuchel has 81 strikeouts and 32 walks, along with a WHIP of 1.30. Keuchel is 1-1 with 11 strikeouts and a 2.08 ERA across two starts against Philadelphia this year.
Atlanta’s pitchers have given up 4.6 runs per game overall this year as a unit. The club’s starters have an ERA of 4.15, a WHIP of 1.34 and a strikeouts-per-nine of 8.2. The bullpen has a 4.37 ERA, 1.43 WHIP and 9.2 K/9. In 70 games against divisional opponents, Braves starters have an ERA of 4.29 and the bullpen’s ERA is 4.27.
The Atlanta hitters are putting up 5.3 runs per outing, including 5.5 per game against divisional foes and 4.6 per game over their last five. The team has a slash-line of .256/.344/.407 over its last five contests and is 3-2 SU during that stretch.
Second baseman Ozzie Albies and first baseman Freddie Freeman have led the way for the Braves’ offense this year. Albies is hitting .295/.352/.502 with 23 home runs, 81 RBIs, 97 runs and 15 stolen bases, while Freeman’s line is .302/.393/.567 with 38 homers, 117 RBIs and 111 runs scored.
In the other dugout, Philadelphia’s pitchers have allowed 4.9 runs per game and its starters own a 4.57 ERA, 1.36 WHIP and 8.30 K/9. The bullpen has logged an ERA of 4.51, along with a K/9 of 8.84.
Phillies hitters have slashed .247/.325/.429 on their way to 4.9 runs scored per game in 2019, including 5.3 runs per game against divisional foes and 4.0 per game over the team’s last five contests (2-3 SU).
Second baseman Cesar Hernandez and shortstop Jean Segura continue to lead Philadelphia’s offense. Hernandez is slashing .284/.339/.406 with 11 home runs, 64 RBIs and 69 runs scored. Segura (.283/.328/.430) is up to 12 homers, 57 RBIs and 77 runs scored.
The Phillies have lost 10.8 units and are 16-24 ATS when facing a lefty starter this season. The over has hit in 18 of those games, compared to 22 that’ve gone under in such games. On the other hand, the Braves have netted 17.7 units and are 59-58 ATS when facing a righty starter. The over has hit in 56 of those games, compared to 56 that went under the total.
Phillies vs. Braves Prediction
Predictions: SU Winner – Braves, ATS Winner – Phillies, O/U – OVER
Betting Trends
- The over has hit in four of Atlanta’s last seven games.
- The Phillies have a total OPS of .753 this season, including an OPS of .783 when facing left-handed pitchers. The Braves’ OPS sits at .795 overall and .790 against southpaws.
- The Phillies have lost three of their last four games SU.
- Atlanta has posted 21.2 Runs + Hits + Errors per game over its last 10 contests and 22.2 over its last five.
- The Phillies have hit 18 home runs in their last 10 games, including 10 over their last five.
