The Philadelphia Phillies will take on their divisional rival Miami Marlins in a Sunday matinee. NBC Sports Philadelphia will broadcast the action and the game is scheduled to get underway at 1:10 p.m. ET.
Philadelphia Phillies at Miami Marlins Odds
Miami (+185) is stepping into this one as a pretty heavy underdog against Philadelphia (-200) and oddsmakers have put the Over/Under for this one at 8 runs (-110 for the over and -110 for the under). Bettors can also wager on the game’s spread with the most recent runline odds coming in at Phillies -1.5 runs (-140) and Marlins +1.5 runs (+120).
The Phillies are 67-61 SU and have gone 59-68 against the spread (ATS). They’ve lost 4.2 units for gamblers taking the moneyline and 9.4 units ATS. Philadelphia’s covered the spread four times in its last seven games and the total has gone under in four of those seven. The Marlins, on the other hand, are 46-82 SU and 64-63 ATS. The team has lost 9.6 units for moneyline bettors and 8.6 units ATS. Miami has a 3-4 ATS record over its last seven outings and the under has cashed in five of those seven.
Marlins games have had an over/under record of 58-59-10 in 2019. Philadelphia has an over/under record of 60-63-4.
Aaron Nola will get the start for the visiting Phillies. The right-handed Nola is 12-3 with a 3.51 ERA and 180 strikeouts. He’s 0-1 with 14 strikeouts and a 1.23 ERA against Miami this year (two starts).
The Marlins are putting the ball in the hands of righty Elieser Hernandez (2-5, 5.18 ERA), who has 60 strikeouts and 21 walks, along with a WHIP of 1.29. Hernandez is 1-0 with 13 strikeouts and a 4.22 ERA across two starts against Philadelphia this year.
Miami’s pitching staff has yielded 4.9 runs per game overall this year as a unit. The club’s starting pitching staff has an ERA of 4.49, a WHIP of 1.28 and a strikeouts-per-nine of 8.3. The bullpen has a 5.14 ERA, 1.48 WHIP and 9.4 K/9. In 62 games against NL East opponents, Marlins starters have an ERA of 5.09 and the bullpen’s ERA is 4.87.
Miami’s offense has put up 3.7 runs per outing, including 3.7 per game against divisional foes and 5.0 per game over its last five. The team has slashed .273/.330/.426 over its last five matchups and is 1-4 SU during that span.
Second baseman Starlin Castro and third baseman Brian Anderson have paced the Marlins’ offense this year. Castro is slashing .262/.285/.391 with 13 home runs, 65 RBIs and 44 runs scored, while Anderson’s line is .261/.342/.468 with 20 homers, 66 RBIs and 57 runs.
In the other dugout, Philadelphia’s pitching staff allowed 5.0 runs per game and its starting pitchers own a 4.60 ERA, 1.35 WHIP and 8.09 K/9. The bullpen has managed an ERA of 4.65, along with a K-per-9 of 9.03.
The Phillies offense has slashed .246/.326/.421 on its way to 4.8 runs scored per game this season, including 5.4 runs per game against divisional foes and 6.0 per game over the team’s last five outings (3-2 SU).
Philadelphia’s hitters have been led by second baseman Cesar Hernandez and shortstop Jean Segura. Hernandez is slashing .282/.334/.397 with eight home runs, 54 RBIs and 58 runs scored, while Segura (.287/.335/.435) is up to 11 homers, 52 RBIs and 69 runs scored.
The Phillies have gained 2.5 units and are 45-48 ATS when facing a righty starter this season. The over has cashed in 44 of those games, compared to 45 that’ve gone under in such games. On the other hand, the Marlins have lost 7.6 units and are 45-49 ATS when facing a right-handed starting pitcher. The over’s hit in 40 of those games, compared to 47 that’ve gone under.
Phillies at Marlins Prediction
Predictions: SU Winner – Phillies, ATS Winner – Phillies, O/U – OVER
Betting Trends
- The under has hit in five of Miami’s last seven games.
- The Phillies have a team OPS of .747 this season and an OPS of .736 when facing right-handed pitchers. The Marlins’ OPS stands at .670 overall and .658 against righties.
- The Phillies have won three of their last four games SU.
- Philadelphia has recorded 24.3 Runs + Hits + Errors per game over its last 10 contests and 22.0 over its last five.
- The Phillies have hit 11 home runs in their last 10 games. The Marlins have hit nine over their last 10.
