Cesar Hernandez and the Philadelphia Phillies will be taking on the Cincinnati Reds at Great American Ball Park in a Wednesday showdown. The first pitch is scheduled for 6:40 p.m. ET and Fox Sports Ohio is in line to broadcast this NL showdown.
Philadelphia Phillies at Cincinnati Reds Odds
Las Vegas has Philadelphia (-120) as the favorite over Cincinnati (+110). If you’re thinking this game’s total is going to finish under 9 runs scored, then bookmakers are putting up even money odds (+100). Taking the over will return -120 odds. This game currently has a runline of Phillies -1.5 (+125) and Reds +1.5 (-145).
The Reds are 76-62 against the spread (ATS), but only 64-75 straight up (SU). They’ve lost 9.3 units for moneyline bettors while gaining 5.1 units ATS. Cincinnati has a 3-4 ATS mark over its last seven games and the under has hit in five of those seven. The Phillies have gone 72-65 SU this year and are 63-73 against the spread. In total, the club has lost 4.7 units for gamblers taking the moneyline and 10.8 units ATS. Philadelphia is 3-4 ATS over its last seven games and the total has gone under in four of those seven.
Reds games have an over/under record of 53-78-7 in 2019. Philadelphia has an over/under record of 64-68-4.
The right-handed Aaron Nola will get the start for Philadelphia. Nola is 12-4 with a 3.45 ERA and 194 strikeouts. He’s 0-0 with seven strikeouts and a 4.05 ERA against Cincinnati this year.
The Reds are sending righty Trevor Bauer (10-12, 4.53 ERA) to the mound. Bauer has 222 strikeouts and 76 walks as well as a WHIP of 1.29. Bauer has yet to face the Phillies this year and did not register a start against them in 2018.
Philadelphia’s pitching staff allowed 4.9 runs per game and its starting pitchers own a 4.57 ERA, 1.35 WHIP and 8.10 K/9. The bullpen has an ERA of 4.61, along with a WHIP of 1.35.
Phillies hitters have slashed .249/.327/.427 on their way to 4.9 runs scored per game this season, including 5.9 runs per game over the team’s last 10 games and 5.2 per game over the team’s last five contests (3-2 SU).
Philadelphia’s offensive production has been led by second baseman Cesar Hernandez and shortstop Jean Segura. Hernandez is slashing .282/.334/.393 with eight home runs, 58 RBIs and 63 runs scored. Segura (.286/.333/.435) has produced 11 homers, 53 RBIs and 72 runs scored.
For the home team, Cincinnati’s pitchers have allowed 4.4 runs per game overall this year. The club’s starters have an ERA of 4.05, a WHIP of 1.25 and a strikeouts-per-nine of 9.7. The bullpen has a 4.56 ERA, 1.35 WHIP and 9.9 K/9.
The Cincinnati hitters have put up 4.5 runs per contest, including 4.1 per game over its last 10 games and 2.6 per game over their last five. The team has hit .178/.259/.325 over its last five matchups and is 1-4 SU during that stretch.
The Reds’ hitters have been led by third baseman Eugenio Suarez and shortstop Jose Iglesias. Suarez is hitting .261/.342/.546 with 40 home runs, 87 RBIs and 77 runs scored, and Iglesias has produced a line of .293/.321/.409 with nine homers, 50 RBIs and 56 runs scored.
The Phillies have gained 4.5 units and are 49-51 ATS when facing a righty starter this season. The over has cashed in 48 of those games, compared to 48 that’ve gone under against right-handed starting pitchers. On the other hand, the Reds have lost 6.2 units and are 57-49 ATS when facing a right-handed starting pitcher. The over’s hit in 41 of those games, as opposed to 60 that’ve cashed the under.
Phillies at Reds Free MLB Pick
Predictions: SU Winner – Reds, ATS Winner – Reds, O/U – OVER
Betting Notes
- The under has hit in five of Cincinnati’s last seven games.
- The Reds have dropped six of their last seven games SU.
- The Philadelphia defense has coughed up three errors over the last 10 games, compared to eight errors for Cincinnati over its last 10.
- Both teams have hit 16 home runs over their last 10 games.
- The Phillies have a team OPS of .753 this season and an OPS of .741 against right-handed pitchers. The Reds’ OPS sits at .744 overall and .731 versus righties.
