It will be a battle between two outstanding offenses when the Milwaukee Bucks (52-17), 6.5-point favorites, go head-to-head with the Philadelphia 76ers (44-25) at Fiserv Forum. The game’s Over/Under (O/U) has been set at 231 points and action starts at 3:30 p.m. ET on Sunday, March 17, 2019.
Philadelphia 76ers vs. Milwaukee Bucks ATS Odds
The Bucks come in on a high note after easily covering the 5-point spread against the Miami Heat in their last matchup, 113-98. The 76ers, meanwhile, topped the Sacramento Kings, 123-114, but failed to cover as 10.5-point favorites. The Milwaukee game went 9.5 points under the projected point total of 220.5, while the Philadelphia game went 4 points over the projected point total of 233.
Philadelphia played a nearly flawless game. They had a superb free throw rate of 0.264 (above their season average of 0.244) and an offensive rebounding percentage of 25.0 (above their season average of 24.4). For those same stats, Sacramento recorded marks of 0.202 and 20.4, respectively. The Bucks, meanwhile, knocked down 17 of their 24 free throws (70.8 percent) and held the Heat to an effective field goal percentage of 0.452 (below their season average of 0.518). Milwaukee was lifted by Giannis Antetokounmpo, who recorded 33 points, 16 rebounds and nine assists. Joel Embiid, meanwhile was a key piece for Philadelphia with 21 points and 17 rebounds.
In their first matchup this year, Antetokounmpo led the Bucks to a 123-108 victory. He recorded a triple-double with 32 points, 18 rebounds and 10 assists. Milwaukee covered as a 5-point favorite and the two teams combined for 231 points, which was just over the projected point total of 227.5. The Bucks’ 8.9 turnover percentage was their largest advantage over the 76ers, who had a mark of 13.2.
Vegas has typically been fairly accurate when setting the total of 76ers games, with 36 unders compared to 32 overs. Philadelphia heads into the game with records of 44-25 straight up (SU) and 32-37 against the spread (ATS).
Similarly to Philadelphia, Bucks games have a slight tendency to go under the projected point total (52.2 percent). Moreover, Milwaukee is 52-17 SU and 41-26-2 ATS.
This showdown pits one of the NBA’s top offenses against one of its elite defenses. Milwaukee currently ranks second in effective field goal percentage (0.551) and Philadelphia is second in effective field goal percentage allowed (0.507). Moreover, the 76ers are among the league’s elite at getting to the line, ranking second in free throw attempt (FTA) rate (0.244). The Bucks, however, rank first at keeping opponents off the charity stripe with an opponents’ FTA rate of 0.164.
Philadelphia 76ers vs. Milwaukee Bucks Pick
NBA Pick: SU Winner – Bucks, ATS Winner – Bucks, O/U – Under
Betting Notes:
- The 76ers rank third in blocks allowed per game (4.0) while the Bucks rank 13th (4.9).
- Philadelphia ranks fourth in three pointers allowed per game (29.5) while Milwaukee ranks last (35.0).
- The Bucks rank third in points allowed in the paint per game (42.3) while the 76ers rank 22nd (50.8).
- Philadelphia ranks eighth in second chance points per game (13.7) while Milwaukee ranks 27th (11.6).
- Philadelphia ranks third in assists per game (27.1) while Milwaukee ranks 17th in assists allowed per game (24.6).
- The Bucks rank second in points off turnovers allowed per game (14.5) while the 76ers rank 24th (17.6).
- The Bucks rank first in fast break points allowed per game (10.4) while the 76ers rank 19th (14.1).
- Philadelphia averages 47.4 rebounds per game, which ranks fourth in the NBA. Milwaukee ranks 14th in rebounds allowed per game (44.8).
- Milwaukee ranks second in steals allowed per game (6.9) while Philadelphia ranks 23rd (8.2).
- Milwaukee is 18-1 when they allow less than 100 points, while Philadelphia is 11-0.
- The 76ers are 44-20 when they score more than 100 points, while the Bucks are 51-13.
- Milwaukee is 19-13 ATS at home, while Philadelphia is 13-19 ATS on the road.
- The total has gone under in 18 of the 76ers’ 32 road games, while 16 of the Bucks’ 32 home games have gone over.
Bettings Trends:
- The Bucks are 4-1 ATS over their last five games, while the 76ers are 1-4.
- In their last five games, Milwaukee has 3 overs and 2 unders, while Philadelphia has 4 unders and 1 over.
- The Bucks’ average margin of victory in their last five games has been 12.2, up from 9.3 for the season.
- During their last five games, the 76ers have scored an average of 106.6 points per game (8.3 below their season average) and allowed an average of 103.4 points per game (8.1 below their season average).
