A six-game home winning streak is on the line for the Harvard Crimson (17-7, 6-3 Ivy) when they go head-to-head with the Penn Quakers (13-9, 5-4 Ivy) at Lavietes Pavilion. Action begins at 7 p.m. ET on Saturday, February 22, 2020.
Penn Quakers at Harvard Crimson Betting Odds
Neither team was able to cover in their last outing. The Crimson (14.5-point favorites) defeated the Princeton Tigers, 61-60, while the Quakers (5-point favorites) fell to the Dartmouth Big Green, 66-59. The Harvard game went 20 points under the projected point total of 141, while the Penn game went 13.5 points under the projected point total of 138.5.
The Crimson held the Tigers to an effective field goal percentage of 0.402 (below their season average of 0.540) and had a better offensive rebounding percentage (27.3 vs. 25.6). Penn, meanwhile, held Dartmouth to an effective field goal percentage of 0.438 (below their season average of 0.502). Harvard received a boost from Mason Forbes, who had 11 points and seven rebounds. Lucas Monroe, meanwhile had a good outing for Penn, contributing 12 points and six rebounds.
In their first matchup this season, AJ Brodeur led the Quakers to a 75-72 win. He scored a game-high 20 points. Penn covered as a 1-point underdog and the two teams combined to put up 147 points, which was just over the projected point total of 143. One of Penn’s largest advantages was getting to the charity stripe. They made 25 trips to the line, while Harvard went 16 times.
Games including the Quakers have a tendency to finish under the total (55.0 percent). Penn holds records of 13-9 straight up (SU) and 12-8 against the spread (ATS).
Unlike Penn, Crimson games have a tendency to go over the O/U total (63.6 percent). Harvard has an outstanding 17-7 SU record, but they are just 9-13 ATS.
Harvard could have difficulty getting to the foul line in this contest. The Crimson currently rank 218th in the country with a free throw attempt (FTA) rate of 0.216, while Penn ranks 39th in FTA rate allowed (0.179). Furthermore, second chance points could be tough to come by for the Quakers. They rank 314th in the NCAA in offensive rebounding percentage at 23.3 percent, while the Crimson are 57th-best on the defensive glass (defensive rebounding percentage of 75.1 percent).
Penn Quakers vs. Harvard Crimson Betting Pick
Pick: SU Winner – Penn, ATS Winner – Penn, O/U – Over
Betting Notes:
- Harvard ranks 57th in rebounds per game (38.3) while Penn ranks 271st in rebounds allowed per game (38.4).
- The Crimson average 6.6 steals per game, which ranks 117th in the nation. The Quakers rank 176th in steals allowed per game (7.1).
- Harvard is 32nd in the nation with 10.6 assists allowed per game while Penn is 33rd with 10.6 assists allowed per game.
- The Quakers rank 28th in three pointers attempted per game (26.7) while the Crimson rank 129th (22.3).
- Harvard ranks 11th in blocks per game (5.5) while Penn ranks 101st (3.3).
- Harvard is 4-4 ATS at home, while Penn is 7-5 ATS on the road.
- The total has gone over in 7 of the Quakers’ 12 road games, while 5 of the Crimson’s 8 home games have gone over.
Bettings Trends:
- The Quakers are 4-1 ATS over their last five games, while the Crimson are 2-3.
- In their last five games, Penn has 3 unders and 2 overs, while Harvard has 4 overs and 1 under.
- The Quakers’ average margin of victory in their last five games has been 0.8, down from 2.3 for the season.
- During their last five games, the Crimson have scored an average of 74.4 points per game (0.9 above their season average) and allowed an average of 69.0 points per game (2.2 above their season average).
