Orlando Magic at Milwaukee Bucks ATS Prediction 12/28/19

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The league’s top scoring team will be a 12-point favorite at home in Fiserv Forum, when the Milwaukee Bucks (28-5) square off with the Orlando Magic (14-17). The game’s Over/Under (O/U) has been set at 219.5 points and it will air on Fox SportsNet Florida at 8:30 p.m. ET on Saturday, December 28, 2019.

Orlando Magic at Milwaukee Bucks Betting Odds

The Bucks will look to keep it rolling after easily covering the 2.5-point spread against the Atlanta Hawks in their last matchup, 112-86. The Magic, on the other hand, topped the Philadelphia 76ers, 98-97, but failed to cover as 5-point favorites. The Milwaukee game finished 23 points under the projected point total of 221, while the Orlando game went 11 points under the projected point total of 206.

Orlando dominated nearly every stat category in the game. They had an offensive rebounding percentage of 20.8 (below their season average of 22.1) and an effective field goal percentage of 0.477 (below their season average of 0.491). For those same stats, Philadelphia had marks of 15.6 and 0.460, respectively. Meanwhile, Milwaukee’s 0.566 effective field goal percentage was their biggest advantage over Atlanta, who had a mark of 0.429. The Bucks’ mark was above their season average of 0.560, while the Hawks’ was below their season average of 0.508. Milwaukee’s Ersan Ilyasova had a good outing, recording 18 points and 17 rebounds. Nikola Vucevic played a key role for Orlando with 16 points, 12 rebounds and seven assists.

The Bucks have won both contests against the Magic this year. In their most recent game, the two teams combined for 211 points, which was under the projected point total of 217.5. Milwaukee won 110-101 but was unable to cover as a 13-point favorite. Milwaukee had a much better offensive rebounding percentage (22.2 vs. 17.0). Orlando, on the other hand, did a terrific job of making free throws (21-26; 80.8 percent). Giannis Antetokounmpo put up a double-double in the victory with 32 points and 15 rebounds.

A little over half of the Magic’s games have finished over the O/U total. Orlando holds records of 14-17 straight up (SU) and 12-14-4 against the spread (ATS).

Much like Orlando, just over half of Bucks games have finished over the total. Moreover, Milwaukee is 28-5 SU and 18-14 ATS.

This game should be a showdown of conflicting styles. Milwaukee has preferred an up-tempo style of play (fourth in possessions per game), while Orlando has been slower-paced (29th in possessions per game). Additionally, the Magic’s 25th-ranked offense (offensive efficiency of 103.4) will battle against the Bucks’ top-ranked defense (defensive efficiency of 99.8).

Orlando Magic vs. Milwaukee Bucks Odds Pick

Free NBA Pick: SU Winner – Bucks, ATS Winner – Bucks, O/U – Over

Betting Notes:

  • The Bucks average 26.0 assists per game, which ranks sixth in the NBA. The Magic rank 12th in assists allowed per game (23.5).
  • Milwaukee ranks third in points in the paint per game (52.1) while Orlando ranks 25th (44.4).
  • The Bucks rank first in rebounds per game (51.3) while the Magic rank 19th (44.6).
  • Milwaukee ranks second in fast break points per game (18.8) while Orlando ranks 17th (12.5).
  • Orlando ranks second in points off turnovers allowed per game (14.4) while Milwaukee ranks eighth (16.1).
  • The Bucks rank third in three pointers attempted per game (39.1) while the Magic rank 23rd (30.6).
  • The Magic average 6.5 blocks per game, which ranks third in the league. The Bucks rank 11th in blocks allowed per game (4.7).
  • Milwaukee ranks fifth in steals allowed per game (6.9) while Orlando ranks sixth (7.0).
  • Milwaukee ranks fifth in second chance points per game (14.3) while Orlando ranks 24th (12.0).
  • In games where they allow under 100 points, Milwaukee is 8-0 and Orlando is 8-3.
  • When scoring more than 100 points, the Magic are 10-8 and the Bucks are 28-5.
  • Orlando is 7-6-2 ATS on the road, while Milwaukee is 10-7 ATS at home.
  • The total has gone over in 9 of the Magic’s 15 road games, while 9 of the Bucks’ 17 home games have gone over.

Bettings Trends:

  • The Bucks are 3-2 ATS over their last five games, while the Magic are 2-1-2.
  • In their last five games, Milwaukee has 3 unders and 2 overs, while Orlando has 4 overs and 1 under.
  • During their last five games, the Bucks have scored an average of 114.4 points per game (5.6 below their season average) and allowed an average of 100.4 points per game (6.5 below their season average).
  • The Magic’s average margin of defeat in their last five games has been 4.4, up from 1.4 for the season.