The league’s top scoring defense will be on the road at AmericanAirlines Arena, when the Orlando Magic (21-26) clash with the Miami Heat (31-14). The game starts at 7:30 p.m. ET on Monday, January 27, 2020, and will air on Fox SportsNet Florida.
Orlando Magic at Miami Heat ATS Odds
Both teams were beaten in their last matchup. The Heat (2.5-point underdogs) were defeated by the Los Angeles Clippers, 122-117, while the Magic (3-point favorites) fell to the Los Angeles Clippers, 112-97. The Miami game finished 20 points over the projected point total of 219, while the Orlando game went 3.5 points under the projected point total of 212.5.
Orlando had a turnover percentage of 5.2 (better than their season average of 11.1) while Miami did a great job of getting and making free throws (24-29; 82.8 percent). Miami rallied around Jimmy Butler, who contributed 20 points, eight rebounds and seven assists. Michael Carter-Williams, meanwhile had a good outing for Orlando, recording 15 points, eight assists and seven rebounds.
In their first matchup this year, Nikola Vucevic led the Magic to a 105-85 victory. He registered a double-double with 20 points and 11 rebounds. Orlando covered as a 2-point favorite and the two teams combined to score 190 points, which was well under the projected point total of 206. The Magic’s 9.6 turnover percentage was their biggest advantage over the Heat, who had a rate of 16.6.
Of the Magic’s 46 games that accepted bets, 26 have finished under the total. Orlando holds records of 21-26 straight up (SU) and 21-21-4 against the spread (ATS).
Unlike Orlando, games involving the Heat have typically finished over the total (62.2 percent). Moreover, Miami is 31-14 SU and 24-19-2 ATS.
Miami does a great job at getting to the charity stripe. They rank first in free throw attempt (FTA) rate (0.236), but Orlando is among the best in the NBA at keeping opponents off the line (ranking fourth by allowing a FTA rate of 0.168). The Magic should have an advantage in terms of ball security. They rank 3rd at avoiding errors (turnover percentage of 12.2 percent). Conversely, the Heat force the sixth-fewest turnovers in the league (opponents’ turnover percentage of 12.9 percent).
Orlando Magic at Miami Heat ATS Pick
Free Pick: SU Winner – Heat, ATS Winner – Heat, O/U – Over
Betting Notes:
- The Magic rank fifth in points allowed in the paint per game (44.0) while the Heat rank eighth (46.1).
- Orlando ranks first in points off turnovers allowed per game (14.1) while Miami ranks 25th (18.5).
- The Magic rank fourth in steals per game (8.5) while the Heat rank 22nd (7.2).
- Orlando ranks 12th in three pointers allowed per game (33.1) while Miami ranks 27th (37.4).
- Miami ranks third in fast break points allowed per game (11.9) while Orlando ranks seventh (12.0).
- The Magic rank sixth in blocks per game (5.8) while the Heat rank 27th (4.1).
- The Magic rank 17th in second chance points per game (12.7) while the Heat rank 26th (11.8).
- Miami averages 25.2 assists per game, which ranks 10th in the league. Orlando ranks 11th in assists allowed per game (23.4).
- Miami ranks second in rebounds allowed per game (41.9) while Orlando ranks 21st (46.2).
- In games where they allow less than 100 points, Miami is 5-1 and Orlando is 12-4.
- The Magic are 17-10 when they score over 100 points, while the Heat are 30-9.
- Orlando is 12-9-2 ATS on the road, while Miami is 14-7-1 ATS at home.
- The Magic have 12 overs and 11 unders in 23 road games.
- The Heat have 15 overs and 7 unders in 22 home games.
Bettings Trends:
- The Heat are 2-3 ATS over their last five games, while the Magic are 1-4.
- In their last five games, Miami has 4 overs and 1 under, while Orlando has 4 unders and 1 over.
- During their last five games, the Heat have scored an average of 117.2 points per game (5.0 above their season average) and allowed an average of 115.8 points per game (7.1 above their season average).
- The Magic’s average margin of defeat in their last five games has been 4.6, up from 0.8 for the season.
