A couple of schools that prefer to focus on their running games, Head Coach Lincoln Riley and the No. 5 Oklahoma Sooners (+23.5) are ready to face off against the Kansas State Wildcats at Bill Snyder Family Stadium. This pivotal conference showdown starts at 12:00 p.m. ET and ABC is scheduled to televise the action.
Betting Preview: Oklahoma Sooners at Kansas State Wildcats
Oklahoma is significantly favored here and is currently giving up 23.5 points to Kansas State. If the Wildcats seize momentum in the early stages it would generate a decent live betting opportunity. Oddsmakers have placed the over/under (O/U) at 59 points.
The game’s opening line was 20. The total hasn’t moved after being set initially at 59.
The Sooners have gained 1.0 unit so far and are 4-3 against the spread (ATS). The team has posted an O/U record of 3-4.
The Wildcats are up 2.1 units this season. The team is 4-2 ATS and has an O/U record of 2-4.
The Sooners are 7-0 straight up (SU), including 4-0 SU against conference opponents. The Wildcats are 4-2 SU overall and are also 1-2 SU in conference play.
These two programs faced off a year ago with the final outcome being a 51-14 win for Oklahoma.
The Sooners are hoping to stay unbeaten following a 52-14 victory over West Virginia last week. The defense did its part in the win, limiting the Mountaineers to just 191 passing yards and 51 yards on the ground. T.J. Simmons had a productive day for the Mountaineers in that one with 74 yards and two touchdowns on six catches. On the offensive side of the ball, Jalen Hurts completed 16 passes on 17 attempts for 316 yards and three touchdowns. Hurts (75 yards on 10 rush attempts, two TDs) also mounted the ground attack and was complemented by Kennedy Brooks (70 yards on 10 carries, one TD). Charleston Rambo (four receptions, 71 yards, one TD) and CeeDee Lamb (three catches, 71 yards) shared the receiving duties in the win.
Kansas State is coming off of a 24-17 win over TCU. The defense allowed the Horned Frogs to rush for 228 yards on 40 attempts, including two rush TDs. Max Duggan had a good showing in the defeat for TCU, recording 115 rushing yards and a score on 13 attempts. For Kansas State, Skylar Thompson completed 11-of-23 passes for 172 yards and two touchdowns. James Gilbert (38 yards on 14 rush attempts) and the signal-caller Thompson (68 yards on 10 carries, one TD) handled the running attack as Malik Knowles (three receptions, 48 yards) and Wykeen Gill (three catches, 45 yards, one TD) led the pass-catching attack in the win.
Oklahoma has run the ball on 57.9 percent of its offensive possessions this year while Kansas State has an overall rush percentage of 64.8 percent. The Sooners have produced 273.6 rush yards/game (including 235.5 per game versus Big 12 opponents) and have 22 scores on the ground this year. The Wildcats are logging 197.2 rushing yards per game (114.3 in conference) and have 14 total rush TDs.
If 2019 numbers are any indication, then it’s looking like the Sooners should have the edge when it comes to RB efficiency. Their backfield has logged 7.4 yards per carry while the defense is allowing 3.8 yards per rush attempt to opponents. The Wildcats have ran for 4.6 yards per carry and allowed 5.8 yards per rush attempt to opponents.
The Sooners offense has averaged a ridiculous 339.3 yards through the air overall (329.5 per game against conference opposition) and has 23 passing scores so far. The Wildcats have put up 171.8 pass yards per game (169 against Big 12 competition) and have seven total pass TDs.
Oklahoma has let opponents run for an average of 129 yards and pass for 198.6 yards per game. The Kansas State D has given up 152.5 yards per game to opposing passers and 195.2 yards per game on the ground. The Wildcats are giving up an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of only 4.36 to opposing QBs, while the Sooners have allowed a 5.28 ANY/A.
Hurts likely has the edge over Thompson in this matchup, as his adjusted net yards per pass attempt stands at 15.66for the year and 13.50 over his last two outings. Thompson’s ANY/A is 8.35 for the year and 5.63 across his past two games.
Oklahoma Sooners vs. Kansas State Wildcats Free Prediction
SU Winner: Kansas State, ATS Winner: Kansas State, O/U: Over
Team Betting Notes
- The Oklahoma defense has sacked opposing QBs 22 times this year. Kansas State has registered just eight sacks.
- The Kansas State offense has lost six fumbles in 2019 while the Oklahoma offense has lost three.
- The Sooners offense has tallied 12 pass plays of 40+ yards, while the Wildcats have put up zero such plays.
- Both teams have allowed zero pass plays of 40 or more yards. The Oklahoma defense has given up five pass plays of 30+ yards while Kansas State has given up four such plays.
- The Oklahoma offense has created 28 rushing plays of 20+ yards, while Kansas State has created seven such runs.
- The Sooners defense has allowed 11 rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while the Wildcats have given up 13 such runs.
- The O/U for Kansas State’s last matchup going into it was 44. The under cashed in the team’s 24-17 win over TCU.
- In its last three matchups, Kansas State is 1-2 ATS and the under cashed in each of those three.
- Over its last three matches, Oklahoma is 1-2 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
- The O/U for Oklahoma’s previous game was set at 63. The over cashed in the team’s 52-14 win over West Virginia.
- As a team, Oklahoma has averaged 6.6 yards per carry over its past three contests and 6.2 over its last two.
- Kansas State has averaged 3.3 yards per carry over its last three games and 3.0 over its past two.
