Oklahoma City Thunder at Memphis Grizzlies Betting Prediction 03/25/19

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The Memphis Grizzlies (29-44) will be 5.5-point underdogs at home in FedExForum when they challenge the Oklahoma City Thunder (43-30). The game’s Over/Under (O/U) has been set at 219.5 points and it can be seen on Fox Sports – Southeast at 8 p.m. ET on Monday, March 25, 2019.

Oklahoma City Thunder at Memphis Grizzlies ATS Odds

The Thunder come in on a high note after defeating the Toronto Raptors in their last outing, 116-109, as 2-point underdogs. The Grizzlies, on the other hand, were defeated by the Minnesota Timberwolves, 112-99, and were unable to cover as 1-point underdogs. The Oklahoma City game hit the projected point total of 225, while the Memphis game finished 6.5 points under the projected point total of 217.5.

Oklahoma City’s 10.7 turnover percentage was their biggest advantage over Toronto, who had a mark of 19.4. The Thunder’s mark was better than their season average of 11.7, while the Raptors’ was above their season average of 11.8. Memphis, on the other hand, forced Minnesota into a turnover percentage of 17.1 (above their season average of 11.0). Jonas Valanciunas played a pivotal role for Memphis with 20 points and 14 rebounds. Meanwhile, Oklahoma City rallied around Russell Westbrook, who notched his 27th triple-double of the year. He dominated, racking up 18 points, 13 assists and 12 rebounds.

In their two contests this season, the Thunder have won both. The two teams combined to score 194 points in their most recent game, which was well under the projected point total of 217. Oklahoma City won 99-95 but was unable to cover as a 10-point favorite. Oklahoma City won the rebounding battle. The Thunder had 17 offensive rebounds and 53 total rebounds, while the Grizzlies had four and 44, respectively. Despite the loss, Avery Bradley was the game’s leading scorer with 27 points.

Of the Thunder’s 73 games, 37 have finished under the O/U total. Oklahoma City comes into the game with records of 43-30 straight up (SU) and 37-36 against the spread (ATS).

Vegas is known to place the total high when the Grizzlies are involved, as 42 of their 73 games have finished under the total. Further, Memphis owns records of 29-44 SU and 34-38-1 ATS.

The inefficient offense of Memphis will battle against the top-notch defense of Oklahoma City. The Grizzlies currently rank 27th in offensive efficiency, while the Thunder are fourth in defensive efficiency. The Thunder should have the edge on that end of the court. It will also be a matchup of conflicting paces as the fast-paced Thunder rank second in possessions per game, while the more methodical Grizzlies rank 30th.

Thunder vs. Grizzlies ATS Pick

Pick: SU Winner – Thunder, ATS Winner – Thunder, O/U – Under

Betting Notes:

  • The Grizzlies rank fourth in assists allowed per game (23.1) while the Thunder rank 19th (24.8).
  • Oklahoma City ranks third in second chance points per game (15.2) while Memphis ranks 28th (10.8).
  • The Thunder rank first in steals per game (9.5) while the Grizzlies rank 18th in steals allowed per game (7.6).
  • Memphis ranks first in points allowed in the paint per game (42.0) while Oklahoma City ranks 18th (49.3).
  • Memphis averages 5.6 blocks per game, which ranks fourth in the NBA. Oklahoma City ranks 19th in blocks allowed per game (5.2).
  • The Thunder rank second in rebounds per game (48.1) while the Grizzlies rank 27th (41.3).
  • The Thunder rank second in points off turnovers per game (19.6) while the Grizzlies rank 18th in points off turnovers allowed per game (16.9).
  • Oklahoma City ranks 14th in three pointers attempted per game (32.0) while Memphis ranks 26th (28.2).
  • Oklahoma City averages 18.1 fast break points per game, which ranks fifth in the league. Memphis ranks 27th in fast break points allowed per game (16.1).
  • In games where they allow below 100 points, Memphis is 15-7 and Oklahoma City is 10-0.
  • When scoring over 100 points, the Thunder are 39-23 and the Grizzlies are 20-19.
  • Oklahoma City is 20-18 ATS on the road, while Memphis is 20-17 ATS at home.
  • The total has gone under in 22 of the Thunder’s 38 road games, while 20 of the Grizzlies’ 37 home games have gone under.

Bettings Trends:

  • The Grizzlies are 2-3 ATS over their last five games, while the Thunder are 1-4.
  • In their last five games, Memphis has 4 overs and 1 under, while Oklahoma City has 2 overs, 2 unders and 1 push.
  • The Grizzlies’ average margin of defeat in their last five games has been 8.8, up from 2.6 for the season.
  • During their last five games, the Thunder have scored an average of 106.2 points per game (8.3 below their season average) and allowed an average of 113.2 points per game (2.1 above their season average).