The North Texas Mean Green (-6.5) are set to take on the Rice Owls at Rice Stadium. This CUSA game will get underway at 3:30 p.m. ET and fans can catch the action by tuning in to NFL Network. When the two schools faced one another a year ago, North Texas won soundly 41-17.
Betting Preview: Rice Owls vs. North Texas Mean Green
In this Saturday Conference USA matchup, North Texas is tabbed as the favorite and is currently giving up 6.5 points. The Mean Green are also receiving -270 moneyline odds while the Owls are +210. Vegas has set the over/under (O/U) at 56 points, and if one team can create a bunch of points early, it’ll probably produce a reasonable live betting opportunity.
Square bettors have been hammering the Mean Green. The line opened at 4.5 and the game’s O/U has yet to move after it was initially posted at 56.
The disappointing Mean Green are down 7.2 units so far and 3-7 against the spread (ATS). The team has posted an O/U record of 7-3.
The Owls are down 3.5 units this season. The team is 4-5-1 ATS and owns an even O/U record of 5-5.
The Mean Green are 4-6 straight up (SU), including 3-3 SU against conference opponents. The Owls are 1-9 SU overall and 1-5 SU in conference play.
The Mean Green are reeling from a 52-17 defeat to Louisiana Tech on November 9. the Mean Green completed 23-of-35 passes for 265 yards, one touchdown and two interceptions. Jason Bean went 12-for-16 for 94 yards and two interceptions while Mason Fine completed eight-of-15 for 48 yards. Tre Siggers (77 rushing yards on 19 attempts, one TD) led the ground attack. Jaelon Darden (six receptions, 16 yards) and Siggers (five catches, 31 yards) shared the receiving duties in the defeat.
Rice just picked up a 31-28 win over Middle Tennessee. The Owls defense allowed the Blue Raiders to pass for 338 yards and two touchdowns while rushing for 120 yards and two scores. Ty Lee was on a different level for Middle Tennessee, putting up 154 yards on seven catches. For Rice, Tom Stewart completed 18-of-23 passes for 222 yards and three touchdowns. Juma Otoviano (42 rushing yards on 20 attempts) and Aston Walter (106 yards on 15 carries, one TD) spearheaded the running game as Brad Rozner (eight receptions, 130 yards, three TDs) and Austin Trammell (three catches, 22 yards) led the pass-catching corps in the win.
North Texas has run the ball on 46.3 percent of its offensive possessions this year while Rice has a rush percentage of 56.3 percent. The Mean Green have rushed for 152.5 yards/game (including 151.2 per game versus Conference USA opponents) and have eight scores on the ground this year. The Owls are averaging 116 rush yards per game (126.8 in conference) and have nine total rushing TDs.
It seems like the Mean Green could hold an edge when it comes to quarterback protection, since their offensive line has allowed just 28 sacks while the D-line registered 34 sacks. The Owls, on the other hand, have allowed 24 sacks and their defense has sacked opposing QBs on just 17 occasions.
The Mean Green offensive scheme has logged 297.1 yards/contest in the air overall (305.5 per game against conference opposition) and has 31 passing TDs so far. The Owls have put up 167.1 pass yards per contest (166 against CUSA foes) and have 12 total pass scores.
Defensively, North Texas has allowed opponents to run for an average of 193.8 yards and pass for 235.5 yards per game. The Rice D has allowed 252.4 yards per game to opposing passers and 148.6 yards per game to opposing runners. The Mean Green are giving up an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of just 6.48 to opponents, while the Owls have allowed a staggering 8.82 ANY/A.
Offensively, Fine has put up 2,327 passing yards this year. He’s connected on 194-of-309 attempts with 20 scores through the air and only six interceptions. He has a 7.28 adjusted net yards per pass attempt overall, although that number is 9.13 over the past two outings.
As a group, Tre Siggers, Michael Lawrence and Jaelon Darden have collectively accounted for 437 yards from scrimmage and five touchdowns over the last two outings.
Tom Stewart has connected on 66-of-101 passes for 754 yards, seven TDs and one INT for Rice. His ANY/A stands at 6.80 for the season and 7.61 across his last two outings.
We’re thinking the Owls will control tempo by pounding the defense with their running backs. In addition to Brad Rozner (654 receiving yards, five receiving TDs this season), Juma Otoviano (48 rush yards, 28 receiving yards) and Aston Walter (610 rush yards, six rush TDs, two TDs) have been key factors in the Rice offense.
North Texas Mean Green at Rice Owls NCAA Prediction
SU Winner: North Texas, ATS Winner: North Texas, O/U: Over
Betting Trends
- The Rice offense has lost nine fumbles this season while North Texas has let six get away.
- The North Texas defensive unit has more than twice as many sacks as Rice this year (24 versus 11).
- North Texas has averaged 4.0 yards per rush attempt across its past three contests and 3.8 over its last two.
- Rice has averaged 2.9 yards per carry over its last three matchups and 3.9 over its last two.
- In its last three games, Rice is 1-2 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
- The O/U for North Texas’ last game going into it was 72. The under cashed in the team’s 52-17 defeat to Louisiana Tech.
- In its last three matches, North Texas is 1-2 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.
- The Over/Under for Rice’s last matchup was 47. The over cashed in that 31-28 win over Middle Tennessee.
