The New York Mets will be squaring off against their division rival Miami Marlins at Marlins Park. The action will begin at 7:10 p.m. ET and SportsNet New York will be showing the game.
New York Mets at Miami Marlins Odds
Oddsmakers have listed New York (-180) as the favorite over Miami (+170). Bettors can wager on the game’s total with odds posted at even money (+100) for over 8 runs and -120 for under 8. Bettors can also wager on the game’s runline with the most recent odds standing at -125 for the Mets -1.5 runs and +105 for the Marlins +1.5.
The Mets are 8-1 SU and have gone 7-1 against the spread (ATS). They’ve accumulated 7.5 units for moneyline gamblers this year and 8.0 units ATS. The Marlins are 3-7 SU and 3-6 ATS. They’ve lost 0.6 units for bettors taking the moneyline and 3.9 units ATS. Miami has covered the spread just twice over its last seven games and the over has cashed in four of those seven.
Miami games have a 5-4 over/under record thus far in 2018. New York has an over/under record of 4-4.
The Mets have gained 1.4 units and are 1-0 ATS when facing a lefty starter this season. The over has cashed in zero of those games, compared to one that’ve gone under against right-handed starting pitchers. On the other hand, the Marlins have netted 0.6 units and are 2-3 ATS when facing a right-handed starting pitcher. The over’s hit in three of those games, compared to two which went under the total.
Jacob deGrom (2-0, 1.54 ERA) will get the nod for the visiting Mets. The right-handed deGrom struck out 239 hitters across 201 innings last year with only 59 walks while finishing the season 15-10 overall with a 3.53 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP. He made two starts against the Marlins in 2017 and compiled a 0-1 record against them with a 4.72 ERA and 21 strikeouts.
The Marlins are going with lefty Caleb Smith (0-1, 4.32 ERA) as their starter. Smith struck out 18 hitters across 18 innings last year (2 starts). Smith finished the season 0-1 overall with a 7.71 ERA and a 1.66 WHIP.
Miami’s pitchers have allowed 6.2 runs per game overall this year as a unit. Its starters have a 6.60 ERA, 1.75 WHIP and 8.4 strikeouts per nine innings. The bullpen has a 4.12 ERA, 1.24 WHIP and 8.7 K/9. In four games against NL East opponents, Marlins starters have an ERA of 11.05 and the bullpen’s ERA is 6.05.
The Miami offense has produced 3.2 runs per contest, including 2.2 per game over its last five. The team has hit .195/.259/.253 over its last five contests and is 1-4 SU during that span.
Third baseman Brian Anderson and outfielder Derek Dietrich have led the Marlins’ batters so far. Anderson is slashing .289/.426/.474 with 11 hits, nine RBIs and eight runs scored, and Dietrich’s line is .311/.380/.444 with 14 hits, four RBIs and four runs.
Compared to his overall season slash line of .262/.337/.369, Anderson seemed to enjoy hitting righty pitching at home in 2017, slashing .303/.425/.455 over 40 such plate appearances.
In the visiting dugout, New York’s pitching staff allowed 2.7 runs per game and its starters own a 3.09 ERA, 1.18 WHIP and 10.22 K/9. The bullpen has an excellent ERA of just 1.21, along with a WHIP of 1.18.
Mets hitters have slashed .247/.354/.385 on their way to 4.8 runs scored per game in 2018, including over the team’s last five contests (5-0 SU).
New York’s offensive production been led by second baseman Asdrubal Cabrera and outfielder Brandon Nimmo. Cabrera is slashing .324/.390/.486 with 12 hits, three RBIs and seven runs scored, while Nimmo (.333/.600/.444) is up to three hits, zero RBIs and four runs scored.
Cabrera seemed to enjoy hitting lefty pitching on the road last year, putting up a slash line of .493/.545/.696 across 77 such plate appearances (compared to his overall season line of .280/.351/.434).
New York Mets at Miami Marlins Free Prediction
Predictions: SU Winner – Mets, ATS Winner – Mets, O/U – OVER
Betting Notes
- The Mets went 7-12 SU against the Marlins last season.
- The Mets’ bullpen managed 3.96 ERA against the Marlins last year.
