To conclude the NFL regular season, the New Orleans Saints (-13) will be facing off against their NFC South rival Carolina Panthers at Bank of America Stadium. FOX is scheduled to broadcast the action and this early afternoon matchup kicks off at 1:00 p.m. ET.
Betting Preview: Carolina Panthers vs. New Orleans Saints
In this Sunday NFC game, New Orleans is getting picked as the big favorite and is currently giving up 13 points. In order to take the favorite, moneyline bettors would currently need to spend $800 to win $100 back on the Saints (-800). The Panthers are getting +500 moneyline odds. Oddsmakers have placed the over/under (O/U) at 48 points, and some good live betting opportunities should be unveiled during this showdown.
The game’s over/under has yet to change after being initially set at 48. Having said that, the opening line was 10.5 and the sharp action is siding with the Saints.
The Saints are 10-5 against the spread (ATS) and have gained 2.1 units so far in 2019. The team has posted an O/U record of 8-7.
The Panthers have been a disappointment to moneyline bettors this season, losing 10.5 units. The team is 6-8-1 ATS and the over has hit in 10 of its games.
The Saints are 12-3 straight up (SU), including 4-1 SU against NFC South opponents. The Panthers are 5-10 SU overall and 1-4 SU against divisional foes.
Carolina enters this contest on a zero-game winning streak while New Orleans has lost each of its last zero. The Saints are coming off a 38-28 win over Tennessee in Week 16 where Drew Brees completed 27 passes on 38 attempts for 279 yards and three touchdowns. Alvin Kamara (80 rushing yards on 11 attempts, two TDs) led the ground attack while Michael Thomas (12 receptions, 136 yards, one TD) and Kamara (six catches, 30 yards) shared the receiving duties in the win.
In Week 16, Indianapolis knocked off this Carolina team by a score of 38-6. The Panthers defense allowed the Colts to eat up the clock by running for 218 yards on 32 rush attempts, including three rush TDs. Marlon Mack put up a productive outing in the win, recording 95 rushing yards and a score on 16 attempts for Indianapolis. For Carolina, Will Grier completed 27-of-44 passes for 224 yards and three interceptions. Christian McCaffrey (54 yards on 13 rush attempts) led the running game as McCaffrey (15 receptions, 119 yards) and Ian Thomas (three catches, 16 yards) led the pass-catching attack in the loss.
In terms of offensive play-calling, each squad sports a similar run-pass ratio on the season. New Orleans has run the ball on 40.2 percent of its offensive possessions while Carolina has a rush percentage of 38.7. The Saints have produced 108.2 rush yards/game (including 97.2 per game versus South opponents) and have 10 scores on the ground this year. The Panthers are logging 118.5 rushing yards per game (79.2 in conference) and have 19 total rush TDs.
It seems like the Saints might be the more disruptive team in the trenches, since their offensive line has given up just 20 sacks while the D-line registered 49 sacks. The Panthers O-line has given up 32 sacks and their defense has generated only 35 sacks.
The Saints offensive scheme has averaged 277.6 yards in the air overall (274.4 per game versus conference opposition) and has 33 passing TDs so far. The Panthers have produced 255.7 pass yards per outing (287 in the NFC) and have 17 total pass scores.
Defensively, New Orleans has allowed opponents to rush for an average of 94.7 yards and pass for 260.1 yards per game. The Carolina defense has allowed 248.7 yards per game to opposing passers and 145.4 yards per game to opposing runners. Both teams allow similar adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) to opponents, as the Saints have given up an ANY/A of 6.01 to opposing QBs, while the Panthers are allowing an ANY/A of 5.6.
Passing-wise, Brees is up to 2,419 yards this year. He’s connected on 73 percent of his 318 attempts with 20 passing scores and only four interceptions. Brees has a 7.73 adjusted net yards per pass attempt overall, although that number sits at 9.89 over the last two games.
We expect the New Orleans offense to mix it up in this one. Michael Thomas (1,560 receiving yards, eight receiving touchdowns this season), Alvin Kamara (692 rush yards, three rush TDs, 492 receiving yards, one receiving TD) and Jared Cook (607 receiving yards, eight TDs) have each played big roles recently.
In the home locker room, Kyle Allen has managed to complete 278-of-448 passes for 3,027 yards, 17 TDs and 15 INTs. Allen’s ANY/A sits at a less-than-stellar 4.66 for the season and 3.67 over his past two games.
Christian McCaffrey (1,274 rushing yards, 12 rush TDs, 845 receiving yards, four receiving touchdowns this season), DJ Moore (1,062 receiving yards, four receiving TDs) and Curtis Samuel (583 receiving yards, five receiving TDs) have combined for 547 total yards and three touchdowns over the last two games.
New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers Free NFL Pick
SU Winner: Saints, ATS Winner: Saints, O/U: Under
Team Betting Trends
- The Over/Under for New Orleans’ last game was set at 47.5. The over cashed in the team’s 38-28 victory over Tennessee.
- As a team, New Orleans has averaged 4.0 yards per carry over its past three contests and 3.9 over its last two.
- Carolina has averaged 4.6 yards per carry over its last three matchups and 4.6 over its past two.
- The Carolina offense has lost 13 fumbles this season while New Orleans has lost two.
- In its last three matchups, New Orleans is 2-1 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.
- New Orleans has won six of its last seven games SU, with a December 8th defeat to San Francisco accounting for the only loss over that stretch.
- The Over/Under for Carolina’s last matchup going into it was 47. The under cashed in that 38-6 loss to Indianapolis.
- In its last three games, Carolina is 0-2-1 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.
- Carolina has lost nine of its last 10 games SU, with a 10-point victory over Tennessee on November 3rd accounting for the lone win over that span.
- The Saints offense has produced eight pass plays of 40 yards or more, while the Panthers have put up six such plays.
- The New Orleans defense has allowed 12 pass plays of 40 or more yards, while Carolina has given up five such plays.
- The New Orleans offense has created 10 rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while Carolina has created seven such runs.
- The Saints defense has allowed eight rushing plays of 20 yards or more, while the Panthers have given up 22 such runs.
- The Carolina defense has recorded 52 sacks on the year while New Orleans has 49.
