The Flames (-15) are prepared to host their conference nemesis New Mexico State Aggies in Liberty. ESPN+ has the TV rights and the game is scheduled for 2:00 p.m. ET.
Betting Preview: Liberty Flames vs. New Mexico State Aggies
New Mexico State is playing the role of underdog and is currently getting 15 points in this IndFBS game. The Aggies are also receiving +510 moneyline odds while the Flames are -750. Vegas has placed the over/under (O/U) at 65.5 points. Some good live betting opportunities might exist during the game.
Sharp bettors have been hammering the Flames, as the opening line was -13. The game’s O/U has not moved after it was set initially at 65.5.
The Aggies have lost 3.0 units so far and are 5-6 against the spread (ATS). The team’s posted an O/U record of 5-6.
The Flames are down 2.5 units for moneyline bettors this season. They’re 5-6 ATS and also have an O/U record of 5-6.
The Aggies are 2-9 straight up (SU), including 0-1 SU against IndFBS opponents. The Flames are 6-5 SU overall and are also 2-1 SU in conference play.
Liberty enters this matchup on a zero-game winning streak while New Mexico State has lost each of its last zero. The Aggies are coming off a 44-35 win over UTEP last week. Josh Adkins completed 18-of-30 passes for just 175 yards. Jason Huntley (191 rushing yards on 14 attempts, three TDs) and Christian Gibson (61 yards on seven carries, one TD) led the ground attack in the win while OJ Clark (nine receptions, 72 yards) and Tony Nicholson (two catches, seven yards) shared the receiving duties.
On November 23, Virginia got the victory against this Liberty team by a score of 55-27. The Flames defense allowed the Cavaliers to kill the clock by rushing for 227 yards on 44 attempts, including four rush TDs. PK Kier had a good outing in the win for Virginia, recording 82 rushing yards and a score on 10 attempts. As a group, the Flames collectively completed 18-of-47 passes for 313 yards, two touchdowns and two interceptions. Stephen Calvert went 16-for-40 for 283 yards, two touchdowns and two interceptions while Landon Brown was two-of-six for 30 yards. Frankie Hickson (88 yards on 15 rush attempts, one TD) led the ground game in the defeat as Antonio Gandy-Golden (six receptions, 60 yards, one TD) and CJ Yarbrough (four catches, 83 yards) led the pass-catching corps.
Looking at offensive play-calling, each squad sports a similar run-pass ratio on the season. New Mexico State has run the ball on 45.9 percent of its offensive possessions while Liberty has a rush percentage of 47.4. The Aggies have run for 142.5 yards/game and have 15 scores via handoffs this year. The Flames are averaging 137 rushing yards per game (177 in conference) and have 19 total rush TDs.
It seems like the Flames might have the more disruptive lines up front. Their offensive line has yielded just 27 sacks while the D-line has registered 31 sacks. The Aggies offensive line has given up 31 sacks and their defense has got to opposing QBs just 15 times.
The Aggies offensive scheme has averaged 221.6 yards through the air overall and has 12 passing scores so far. The Flames have recorded 301.5 pass yards per game (321 against IndFBS competition) and have 26 total pass TDs.
Defensively, New Mexico State has allowed opponents to run for an average of 253.9 yards and pass for 225.5 yards per game. The Liberty defense has allowed 235 yards per game to opposing passers and 196.1 yards per game to opposing runners. The Flames are allowing an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of 6.82 to opposing QBs, while the Aggies have given up a 7.33 ANY/A.
Passing-wise, Adkins is up to 2,099 yards this season, and has completed 63 percent of his 364 attempts with nine passing scores and 14 interceptions. Adkins has a 3.73 adjusted net yards per pass attempt overall, although that number sits at 7.43 over the past two games.
On the other sideline, Stephen Calvert has completed 190-of-322 passes for 2,921 yards, 22 TDs and five INTs. Calvert’s ANY/A stands at 8.61 for the season and 6.35 over his last two games.
New Mexico State Aggies vs. Liberty Flames Free Prediction
SU Winner: Liberty, ATS Winner: Liberty, O/U: Over
Betting Notes
- The Liberty defensive unit has registered more than twice the sack total of New Mexico State this season (31 versus 15).
- Liberty has lost eight fumbles in 2019 while the New Mexico State offense has lost 11.
- The Aggies offense has recorded six pass plays of 40 yards or more, while the Flames have put up 16 such plays.
- The New Mexico State defense has allowed nine pass plays of 40 or more yards, while Liberty has given up 12 such plays.
- The New Mexico State offense has created 17 rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while Liberty has created 13 such runs.
- The Aggies defense has allowed 24 rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while the Flames have given up 15 such runs.
- The O/U for Liberty’s previous match was 58. The over cashed in the 55-27 defeat to Virginia.
- In its last three contests, Liberty is 2-1 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.
- Over its last three matchups, New Mexico State is 2-1 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.
- Liberty has lost four of its last five games SU, with a 42-point win over Massachusetts on November 2nd representing the only victory over that stretch.
- The Over/Under for New Mexico State’s last game going into it was 55.5. The over cashed in the team’s 44-35 victory over UTEP.
- New Mexico State has averaged 6.5 yards per carry over its past three outings and 7.7 over its last two.
- Liberty has averaged 4.6 yards per carry over its last three games and 3.9 over its last two.
