The New Mexico State Aggies and Liberty Flames are ready to face off on the turf at Williams Stadium. The afternoon game is scheduled to start at 2:00 p.m. ET and fans can catch it live by tuning in to ESPN 3.
Betting Preview: New Mexico State Aggies at Liberty Flames
New Mexico State is a live dog and is currently getting 9 points in this Saturday IndFBS game. The Aggies are also receiving +280 moneyline odds while the Flames are -360. Vegas has set the over/under (O/U) pretty highly at 73 points, and if one side gets out in front early, it will likely create a worthwhile live betting scenario.
The Aggies are 2-9 against the spread (ATS) and have lost 1.6 units so far in 2018. The team’s posted an O/U mark of 7-4.
The Flames are up 3.6 units for moneyline bettors this season. They’re 4-6 ATS and have an O/U record of 6-4.
The Aggies have gone 3-8 straight up (SU), including 1-1 SU against IndFBS opponents. The Flames are 4-6 SU overall and are also 0-3 SU in conference play.
The Aggies fell to BYU 45-10 in a blowout where their defense allowed the Cougars to run for 317 yards on 51 rush attempts, including six rush TDs. On the offensive side, Josh Adkins completed just 25 passes on 61 attempts for 264 yards, one touchdown and two interceptions. OJ Clark (six receptions, 65 yards) and Royce Caldwell (four catches, 41 yards) handled the receiving duties in the defeat.
Liberty was just shut out 53-0 by Auburn. Stephen Calvert completed nine-of-28 passes for 79 yards and two interceptions. Frankie Hickson (45 rushing yards on 10 attempts) spearheaded the running game while Antonio Gandy-Golden (three receptions, 22 yards) and B.J. Farrow (two catches, 27 yards) led the receiving attack in the loss.
New Mexico State’s run the ball on 40.4 percent of its offensive plays this year, including 32.5 percent across possessions in conference play. Liberty has an overall rush percentage of 50.8 percent, and has kept it on the ground 47.9 percent of the time against IndFBS opponents. The Aggies have produced 107.4 rush yards/game (including 106.5 per game versus Independents (FBS) opponents) and have 14 scores on the ground this year. The Flames are logging 148.8 rushing yards per game (159.7 in conference) and have 25 total rush TDs.
It seems like the Flames ought to hold an edge when it comes to quarterback protection. Their offensive line has yielded just 19 sacks while the D-line has logged 22 sacks. The Aggies offensive line has allowed 36 sacks and their defense has sacked opposing QBs just 26 times.
The Aggies offense has tallied 260.8 yards/game in the air overall (333.0 per game versus conference opposition) and has 15 passing TDs so far. The Flames have recorded 281.9 pass yards per contest (315 in the IndFBS) and have 18 total pass scores.
On the defensive side of the ball, New Mexico State should have the upper hand when it comes to limiting the pass. The team has allowed 280.0 rush yards and 212.4 pass yards per game. The Liberty defense has allowed 264.5 yards per game to opposing passers and 246.5 yards per game on the ground. Both teams allow similar adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) to opponents, as the Aggies have given up an ANY/A of 7.14 to opposing QBs, while the Flames are yielding an ANY/A of 7.47.
Offensively, Adkins is up to 1,854 passing yards this year, and has connected on 161-of-295 attempts with eight scores through the air and eight interceptions. He has a 4.86 adjusted net yards per pass attempt, including 5.71 over the last two outings.
The Aggies have tried to maintain tempo by feeding their running backs early and often. Backfield mates Christian Gibson (479 rush yards, six rush TDs, 52 receiving yards) and Jason Huntley (416 rush yards, five rush TDs, 412 receiving yards, two receiving TDs) have been significant focal points in the offensive gameplans for New Mexico State.
For the home team, Stephen Calvert has completed 189-of-350 passes for 2,607 yards, 18 TDs and 13 INTs. Calvert’s ANY/A stands at 6.14 for the season and -0.31 over his past two outings.
The Flames will also try to control the game’s pace by turning to their backfield. B.J. Farrow (431 receiving yards, four TDs) has gotten involved lately, but Peytton Pickett (320 rush yards, eight rush TDs) and Frankie Hickson (723 rush yards, eight rush TDs) have gotten a lot of action lately.
These two conference foes did not get a chance to face each other last year.
New Mexico State Aggies at Liberty Flames Free Prediction
SU Winner: New Mexico State, ATS Winner: New Mexico State, O/U: Over
Team Betting Notes
- The Aggies offense has created seven pass plays of 40 yards or more, while the Flames have put up five such plays.
- The New Mexico State defense has allowed five pass plays of 40 or more yards, while Liberty has given up 15 such plays.
- The New Mexico State offense has created 12 rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while Liberty has created eight such runs.
- Both defenses have allowed 25 rushing plays of 20 or more yards. The Aggies have given up 99 running plays of 10+ yards while the Flames have given up 69 such plays.
- The New Mexico State defense has sacked opposing quarterbacks 26 times this season. Liberty has recorded 22 sacks.
- New Mexico State has produced 3.8 yards per carry over its last three games and 3.3 over its last two.
- Liberty has averaged 3.9 yards per carry over its last three contests and 3.6 over its past two.
- In its last three games, Liberty is 1-2 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.
- The Over/Under for New Mexico State’s last game was 60.5. The under cashed in the team’s 45-10 loss to BYU.
- Over its last three games, New Mexico State is 0-3 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
- The O/U for Liberty’s last game was set at 65.5. The under cashed in the 53-0 loss to Auburn.
