The Nevada Wolf Pack and Utah State Aggies will square off on the turf at Merlin Olsen Field at Maverik Stadium. Kickoff is fairly late for fans on the East Coast (10:15 p.m. ET) and ESPNU has the TV rights.
Betting Preview: Nevada Wolf Pack at Utah State Aggies
Utah State has been tabbed as heavily favored in this matchup and is currently giving up 22 points to Nevada. If the Wolf Pack seize momentum early it’ll create a nice live betting opportunity. Oddsmakers have placed the over/under (O/U) at 61.5 points.
The line opened at -21. The game’s O/U hasn’t moved since it opened at 61.5.
The profitable Wolf Pack are 2-3-1 against the spread (ATS) and have gained 5.0 units so far. The team has recorded an O/U mark of 4-2.
The Aggies have gained 0.0 units for moneyline bettors this season. They’re 3-2 ATS and have an O/U record of 2-3.
The Wolf Pack have gone 4-2 straight up (SU), including 1-1 SU against conference opponents. The Aggies are 3-2 SU overall and 2-0 SU in conference play.
These two MWC foes did not get a chance to play each other in 2018.
The Wolf Pack are coming off a 41-38 victory over San Jose State last week. Malik Henry completed 22-of-37 passes for 352 yards, one score and two interceptions. Toa Taua (160 yards on 34 rush attempts, one TD) and Devonte Lee (24 yards on 10 carries, two TDs) spearheaded the running attack while Elijah Cooks (six receptions, 94 yards) and Romeo Doubs (five catches, 146 yards, one TD) handled the receiving duties in the win.
A couple of weeks ago, LSU took care of this Utah State team by a score of 42-6. Jordan Love completed 15-of-30 passes for 130 yards and three interceptions. Gerold Bright (18 yards on eight rush attempts) mounted the running game while Jordan Nathan (four receptions, 51 yards) and Savon Scarver (two catches, 20 yards) led the receiving attack in the loss.
Nevada has run the ball on 51.8 percent of its offensive plays this year, including 56.1 percent across possessions in conference play. Utah State has an overall rush percentage of 46.6 percent, and has run the ball 50.9 percent of the time against MWC opponents. The Wolf Pack have produced 137.5 rush yards/game (including 143.5 per game versus Mountain West opponents) and have eight scores on the ground this year. The Aggies are totaling 169.2 rush yards per game (161 in conference) and have seven total rushing TDs.
It appears that the Aggies should own an advantage in all aspects of the ground game. Their backfield has logged 4.8 yards per carry while their defense is allowing a YPC of 3.2 to opponents. The Wolf Pack have ran for 3.6 yards per carry while allowing 3.8 YPC to opponents.
The Wolf Pack offense has averaged 228.5 yards in the air overall (228.5 per game versus conference opposition) and has six passing scores so far. The Aggies have recorded 289 pass yards per contest (249 against MWC foes) and have eight total pass TDs.
Defensively, Nevada has allowed opponents to rush for an average of 117.8 yards and pass for 297 yards per game. The Utah State D has allowed 281.4 yards per game to opposing passers and 140.8 yards per game to opposing runners. The Aggies are allowing an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of 6.8 to opponents, while the Wolf Pack have given up a whopping 8.50 ANY/A.
Offensively, Henry is up to 380 passing yards on the year. He’s connected on 63 percent of his 40 attempts with one scores through the air and two interceptions. Henry has a 7.46 adjusted net yards per pass attempt, including 7.32 over the last two outings.
Jordan Love has completed 103-of-159 passes for 1,133 yards, four TDs and six INTs for Utah State. His ANY/A sits at 5.76 for the year and 2.08 over his past two outings.
Nevada Wolf Pack at Utah State Aggies Free Prediction
SU Winner: Utah State, ATS Winner: Nevada, O/U: Over
Betting Trends
- The Utah State defense has sacked opposing quarterbacks 10 times this season. Nevada has produced eight sacks.
- The Utah State offense has lost three fumbles this season while the Nevada offense has lost six.
- The Wolf Pack offense has created three pass plays of 40 yards or more, while the Aggies have put up four such plays.
- The Nevada defense has allowed six pass plays of 40 or more yards, while Utah State has given up three such plays.
- The Nevada offense has created three rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while Utah State has created eight such runs.
- The Wolf Pack defense has allowed five rushing plays of 20+ yards, while the Aggies have given up four such runs.
- The Over/Under for Utah State’s last matchup was 73.5. The under cashed in that 42-6 defeat to LSU.
- Over its last three matchups, Utah State is 1-2 ATS and the under cashed in each of those three.
- In its last three matchups, Nevada is 1-1-1 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.
- Nevada has won four of its last five games SU, with a 51-point loss to Hawaii on September 28th accounting for the only slip-up over that span.
- The O/U for Nevada’s last game was 61. The over cashed in the team’s 41-38 win over San Jose State.
- Nevada has rushed for 3.9 yards per attempt over its past three outings and 3.3 over its last two.
- Utah State has averaged 3.2 yards per carry over its last three contests and 3.3 over its last two.
