The Georgia State Panthers and Arkansas State Red Wolves will go at it on the turf at Centennial Bank Stadium. ESPNU will televise the action and this Thursday matchup is scheduled to kick off at 7:30 p.m. ET.
Betting Preview: Georgia State Panthers vs. Arkansas State Red Wolves
In this Thursday Sun Belt game, Arkansas State is getting picked as the heavy favorite and is currently giving up 14 points. The Panthers are also receiving +500 moneyline odds while the Red Wolves are -735. Vegas has determined the over/under (O/U) to be 55.5 points, and if one side can find paydirt early, it will likely produce a reasonable in-game betting scenario.
Early action has swayed toward both the Red Wolves and the over. This opening line was initially set at -13 and the O/U was originally just 54.
The Panthers have recorded 0.8 units so far and are 2-3-1 against the spread (ATS). The team’s posted an O/U mark of 2-3.
The Red Wolves have lost 0.6 units for moneyline bettors this season. They’re 1-5 ATS and have an O/U record of 1-4.
The Panthers have gone 2-4 straight up (SU), including 1-1 SU against SBC opponents. The Red Wolves are 3-3 SU overall and 0-2 SU in conference play.
The Panthers dropped one to Troy 37-20 in a thumping where Dan Ellington completed only 20 passes on 36 attempts for 272 yards and one touchdown. Ellington (59 yards on 19 rush attempts) also led the running attack. Penny Hart (six receptions, 128 yards) and Cornelius McCoy (three catches, 35 yards) shared the receiving duties in the defeat.
Arkansas State just lost a brutal 35-9 game to Appalachian State. As a group, the team collectively completed 27-of-45 passes for 219 yards and three interceptions. Justice Hansen went 25-for-40 for 209 yards and three interceptions while Logan Bonner was two-of-five for 10 yards. Hansen (30 yards on 12 rush attempts) and Marcel Murray (37 yards on 11 carries) mounted the running game while Kirk Merritt (nine receptions, 73 yards) and Justin McInnis (seven catches, 55 yards) led all Arkansas State pass-catchers in the loss.
Georgia State has run the ball on 56.6 percent of its offensive plays this year, including 62.8 percent across possessions in conference play. Arkansas State has an overall run percentage of 48.0 percent, and has rushed the ball 43.2 percent of the time when playing SBC opponents. The Panthers have run for 148.3 yards/game (including 212.0 per game versus Sun Belt opponents) and have 10 scores on the ground this year. The Red Wolves are averaging 165.7 rush yards per game (117.0 in conference) and have four total rushing TDs.
The Panthers offensive scheme has averaged 217.3 yards through the air overall (225.5 per game versus conference opposition) and has five passing TDs so far. The Red Wolves have recorded 283.3 pass yards per outing (298 against SBC foes) and have 12 total pass scores.
Georgia State has let opponents run for an average of 244.2 yards and pass for 247.3 yards per game. The Arkansas State defense has given up 147.3 yards per game to opposing passers and 244.7 yards per game on the ground. The Red Wolves are allowing an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of only 5.64 to opponents, while the Panthers have given up an ugly 8.53 ANY/A.
Offensively, Ellington is up to 1,045 passing yards on the year, and has completed 89-of-147 attempts with four passing scores and two interceptions. He has a 6.05 adjusted net yards per pass attempt overall, although that number is 7.80 over the last two games.
Justice Hansen has completed 105-of-172 passes for 1,162 yards, 10 TDs and five INTs for Arkansas State. His ANY/A sits at 6.01 for the season and 4.45 over his past two games.
These two conference adversaries did not get a chance to face one another a year ago.
Georgia State Panthers vs. Arkansas State Red Wolves NCAA Tip
SU Winner: Georgia State, ATS Winner: Georgia State, O/U: Over
Team Betting Trends
- The O/U for Georgia State’s last game was set at 55.5. The over cashed in the team’s 37-20 defeat to Troy.
- Georgia State, as a team, has produced 4.0 yards per carry across its last three contests and 4.7 over its last two.
- Arkansas State has averaged 4.0 yards per carry over its last three outings and only 3.2 over its last two.
- The Arkansas State offense has lost four fumbles this season while Georgia State has lost seven.
- In its last three matchups, Georgia State is 1-1-1 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
- The Over/Under for Arkansas State’s last game was set at 58.5. The under cashed in the team’s 35-9 defeat to Appalachian State.
- In its last three matches, Arkansas State is 0-3 ATS and the under cashed in each of those three.
- The Panthers offense has registered five pass plays of 40 or more yards, while the Red Wolves have accounted for one such play.
- The Georgia State defense has allowed six pass plays of 40 or more yards, while Arkansas State has given up eight such plays.
- The Georgia State offense has created five rushing plays of 20 yards or more, while Arkansas State has created six such runs.
- The Panthers defense has allowed 13 rushing plays of 20+ yards, while the Red Wolves have given up 15 such runs.
- The Arkansas State defense has recorded 14 sacks on the year while Georgia State has just four.
