The Ball State Cardinals (+17) will clash with the Toledo Rockets (-17) at Glass Bowl. This conference game kicks off at 7:30 p.m. ET and ESPN2 is in line to televise the action.
Betting Preview: Ball State Cardinals vs. Toledo Rockets
In this Wednesday Mid-American game, Toledo has been tabbed as the big favorite and is currently giving up 17 points. In order to take the home favorite, moneyline gamblers would currently have to lay down $1,400 to win $100 back on the Rockets (-1400). The Cardinals are getting +780 moneyline odds. If one team catches a lucky break early it’ll create a nice betting opportunity in-game. Vegas has set the over/under (O/U) at 63.5 points.
The sharp action has been siding with both the Rockets and the over. The line originally opened at -14 while the game’s total was initially pegged at 62.5.
The Cardinals are 4-5 against the spread (ATS) and have lost 2.5 units so far. They’ve been a decent under bet and have posted an O/U record of 3-5.
The Rockets have lost 2.3 units this season. The team is 3-5 ATS and has an O/U record of 5-2.
The Cardinals have gone 3-6 straight up (SU), including 2-3 SU against conference opponents. The Rockets are 4-4 SU overall and 2-2 SU in conference play.
When these two programs met last year, Toledo won soundly 58-17.
The Cardinals fell to Ohio 52-14 in a blowout where their defense allowed the Bobcats to eat up the clock by running for 411 yards on 57 rush attempts, including six rush TDs. A.J. Ouellette was unstoppable for the Bobcats in that one with 135 rushing yards and two touchdowns on 13 attempts. Offensively, the Cardinals completed 16-of-32 passes for 162 yards, one touchdown and one interception. Drew Plitt went nine-for-17 for 86 yards and one interception while Riley Neal completed seven-of-15 for 76 yards and one touchdown. James Gilbert (52 yards on nine rush attempts) spearheaded the ground attack. Justin Hall (four receptions, 42 yards) and Trevor Hohlt (three catches, 33 yards) handled the receiving duties in the defeat.
Toledo enters this one having just earned a 51-24 win over Western Michigan. The defense allowed the Broncos to pass for 307 yards and two touchdowns while rushing for 125 yards. Jayden Reed was a bright spot in the loss for Western Michigan, posting 103 yards and two touchdowns on six catches. As a group, the Rockets collectively completed 18-of-32 passes for 247 yards and five touchdowns. Mitchell Guadagni went 10-for-18 for 140 yards and two touchdowns while Eli Peters was eight-of-14 for 107 yards and three touchdowns. Bryant Koback (99 yards on 10 rush attempts, one TD) mounted the running game while Cody Thompson (six receptions, 63 yards, three TDs) and Diontae Johnson (four catches, 49 yards, one TD) led the receiving attack in the win.
Ball State has run the ball on 49.0 percent of its offensive possessions this year while Toledo has a rush percentage of 59.1 percent. The Cardinals have rushed for 173.8 yards per game (including 151.0 per game versus Mid-American opponents) and have 14 touchdowns on the ground this year. The Rockets are totaling 204.4 rushing yards per game (235.8 in conference) and have 16 total rush TDs.
If the numbers so far this season are any indication, then the Cardinals should hold an advantage when it comes to applying pressure. Their offensive line has given up just 33 sacks while their D-line registered 24 sacks. The Rockets offensive line has allowed 22 sacks and their defense has sacked opposing QBs on just 22 occasions.
The Cards offense has logged 241.2 yards per contest through the air overall (245.4 per game versus conference opposition) and has 12 passing TDs so far. The Rockets have produced 224.4 pass yards per outing (179 against MAC foes) and have 23 total pass scores.
Defensively, Ball State seems to have the upper hand when it comes to limiting the pass. The team has let opponents run for an average of 216.3 yards and pass for 205.8 yards per game. The Toledo D has given up 273.4 yards per game to opposing passers and 186.4 yards per game on the ground. The Cards are giving up an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of just 5.68 to opposing QBs, while the Rockets have allowed a 6.72 ANY/A.
Offensively, Neal has amassed 1,760 passing yards this season. The signal-caller has completed 58 percent of his 296 attempts with 10 scores through the air and only three interceptions. Neal’s got a 5.57 adjusted net yards per pass attempt, including 4.22 over the last two outings.
In the home locker room, Eli Peters has completed 43-of-85 passes for 543 yards, eight TDs and one INT. Peters’ ANY/A stands at 6.99 for the year and 8.71 over his past two games.
Ball State Cardinals at Toledo Rockets NCAA Prediction
SU Winner: Toledo, ATS Winner: Toledo, O/U: Over
Team Betting Trends
- The Cardinals offense has recorded three pass plays of 40 or more yards, while the Rockets have put up five such plays.
- The Ball State defense has allowed four pass plays of 40 or more yards, while Toledo has given up nine such plays.
- The Ball State offense has created nine rushing plays of 20+ yards, while Toledo has created 14 such runs.
- The Cardinals defense has allowed 13 rushing plays of 20+ yards, while the Rockets have given up 15 such runs.
- Each team defense has created 18 sacks this year.
- As a team, Ball State has produced 4.4 yards per carry across its past three games and 5.6 over its last two.
- Toledo has averaged 5.6 yards per carry over its last three outings and 6.7 over its past two.
- In its last three games, Toledo is 1-2 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
- The Over/Under for Ball State’s last game was 65.5. The over cashed in the team’s 52-14 loss to Ohio.
- Over its last three games, Ball State is 1-2 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.
- The Over/Under for Toledo’s previous match going into it was 68. The over cashed in the 51-24 victory over Western Michigan.
- Ball State has lost four of its last five games SU, with a one-point win over Central Michigan on October 13th accounting for the only victory over that span.
