The Texas State Bobcats (+17) aren’t traveling far to battle the SMU Mustangs at Gerald J. Ford Stadium. The matchup will get underway at 7:00 p.m. ET and ESPN 3 is in line to have the TV rights.
Betting Preview: Texas State Bobcats vs. SMU Mustangs
In this Saturday matchup, SMU is projected as the big favorite and is currently giving up 17 points. In order to take the home favorite, moneyline gamblers would currently have to put up $1,400 to win $100 back on the Mustangs (-1400). The Bobcats are getting +780 moneyline odds. Oddsmakers have placed the over/under (O/U) at 58.5 points. Based on how it’s shaping up, there should be multiple decent live betting scenarios in this matchup.
The sharp action is siding with the Bobcats. The line originally opened at -18 while the O/U was initially placed at 58.
The Bobcats are down 1.0 unit so far and 0-1-1 against the spread (ATS). They’ve been a good under bet and have posted an O/U record of 0-2.
The Mustangs are up 2.0 units for moneyline bettors this season. They’re 2-0 ATS and have an O/U record of 2-0.
The Bobcats are just 0-2 straight up (SU) in 2019 while the Mustangs are 2-0 SU.
The Bobcats fell to Wyoming 23-14 in a contest where the passing attack could’ve been sharper as Gresch Jensen completed 33-of-54 passes for 394 yards, one touchdown and two interceptions. Caleb Twyford (60 rushing yards on 10 attempts, one TD) spearheaded the ground attack. Hutch White (10 receptions, 96 yards) and Jeremiah Haydel (five catches, 66 yards) handled the receiving duties in the defeat.
SMU is coming off of a 49-27 win over North Texas. The defensive unit allowed the Mean Green to run for 211 yards on 42 rush attempts, along with one rushing TD. Tre Siggers was a force to be reckoned with, recording 164 rushing yards and a score on 18 attempts for North Texas. For SMU, Shane Buechele completed 21-of-31 passes for 292 yards and three touchdowns. Xavier Jones (127 yards on 16 rush attempts, three TDs) and Ke’Mon Freeman (34 yards on 12 carries, one TD) handled the running game as James Proche (seven receptions, 115 yards, one TD) and Reggie Roberson Jr. (six catches, 94 yards, two TDs) led the pass-catching attack in the win.
Texas State has run the ball on 27 percent of its offensive possessions this year while SMU has an overall rush percentage of 51.2 percent. The Bobcats have produced 29 rush yards/game and have only one touchdown on the ground this year. The Mustangs are totaling 179.5 rushing yards per game and have seven total rush TDs.
If 2019 numbers can translate to this game, then it’s looking like the Mustangs could have an advantage in the trenches. Their offensive line has yielded only two sacks while the D-line has registered seven sacks. The Bobcats offensive line has given up eight sacks and their defense has got to opposing signal-callerss just once.
The Bobcats offensive scheme has averaged 302.5 yards in the air overall and has two passing TD so far. The Mustangs have recorded 326 pass yards per outing and have three total pass scores.
Texas State appears to possess an edge when it comes to limiting the pass. The team has allowed opponents to rush for an average of 218 yards and pass for 167.5 yards per game. The SMU defense has allowed 254.5 yards per game to opposing passers and 150.5 yards per game to opposing runners. The Mustangs are giving up an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of only 5.02 to opposing QBs, while the Bobcats have allowed a 5.53 ANY/A.
Buechele has been more sharp than Jensen recently. The Mustangs man under center has an adjusted net yards per pass attempt 10.72 for the year and 7.94 over his last two games while Jensen’s ANY/A is 4.76 and 3.97 over the last two outings.
Texas State Bobcats vs. SMU Mustangs NCAA Pick
SU Winner: SMU, ATS Winner: SMU, O/U: Over
Team Betting Trends
- Each team has lost one fumble this season.
- The Bobcats offense has produced one pass play of 40 or more yards, while the Mustangs have put up three such plays.
- The Texas State defense has allowed two pass plays of 40 or more yards, while SMU has given up zero such plays.
- The Texas State offense has created one rushing play of 20+ yards, while SMU has created three such runs.
- The Bobcats defense has allowed three rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while the Mustangs have given up five such runs.
- The SMU defense has produced seven sacks on the year while Texas State has just one.
