The Texas State Bobcats and Arkansas State Red Wolves are set to do battle on the turf at Centennial Bank Stadium. ESPN+ will broadcast the action and the matchup is scheduled to start at 7:00 p.m. ET.
Betting Preview: Arkansas State Red Wolves vs. Texas State Bobcats
In this Saturday Sun Belt game, Arkansas State is projected as the big favorite and is currently giving up 12 points. The Bobcats are also receiving +340 moneyline odds while the Red Wolves are -475. Vegas has determined the over/under (O/U) to be 58.5 points. Based on how things are shaping up, there should be multiple good live betting opportunities for this matchup.
The general public leaning toward the Bobcats. This game’s opening line was originally set at -14 and the O/U was initially 58.
The Bobcats are 0-3-2 against the spread (ATS) and have lost 2.0 units this season. The team’s posted an O/U record of 2-3.
The Red Wolves have lost 1.6 units for moneyline bettors this year. They’re 2-5 ATS and have an O/U record of 4-3.
The Bobcats have gone 2-4 straight up (SU), including 1-1 SU against conference opponents. The Red Wolves are 3-4 SU overall and are also 1-2 SU in conference play.
The Bobcats dropped one to Louisiana-Monroe 24-14 in a matchup where the Bobcats completed 20-of-39 passes for 246 yards, one touchdown and one interception. Gresch Jensen went 16-for-30 for 170 yards while Tyler Vitt completed three-of-eight for 72 yards, one touchdown, and one interception. Caleb Twyford (78 yards on 10 rush attempts) provided the ground attack in the loss while Hutch White (three receptions, 35 yards) and Jeremiah Haydel (three catches, 28 yards) handled the receiving duties.
Arkansas State most-recently fell 37-20 to Louisiana. The defense allowed the Ragin’ Cajuns to rush for 315 yards on 46 attempts, including five rush TDs. Raymond Calais put up a productive showing for Louisiana, recording 144 rushing yards and two touchdowns on eight attempts. For Arkansas State, Layne Hatcher completed 23-of-34 passes for 303 yards, two touchdowns and one interception. Marcel Murray (164 yards on 35 rush attempts) handled the ground game in the defeat while Omar Bayless (nine receptions, 150 yards) and Jonathan Adams Jr. (six catches, 39 yards) led the pass-catching corps.
Texas State’s run the ball on 43.3 percent of its offensive plays this year, including 54.9 percent across possessions in conference play. Arkansas State has an overall run percentage of 46.2 percent, and has rushed the ball 50.2 percent of the time against SBC opponents. The Bobcats have run for 82.7 yards per game (including 156.5 per game versus Sun Belt opponents) and have six scores via handoffs this year. The Red Wolves are putting up 121.7 rush yards per game (129.3 in conference) and have five total rushing TDs.
The Bobcats offensive scheme has averaged 243 yards through the air overall (187.5 per game versus conference opposition) and has seven passing TDs so far. The Red Wolves have recorded 315.1 pass yards per game (355 in the SBC) and have 20 total pass scores.
Texas State appears to have an edge in both areas of the defense. The team’s allowed opponents to rush for an average of 218.2 yards and throw for 195.5 yards per game. The Arkansas State defense has allowed 300.6 yards per game to opposing passers and 229.6 yards per game to opposing runners. The Bobcats are allowing an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of only 5.67 to opposing QBs, while the Red Wolves have given up a 7.15 ANY/A.
Hatcher probably has the edge over Jensen in this one. The Red Wolves man under center has an adjusted net yards per pass attempt 8.58 for the season and 7.68 over his last two games while Jensen’s ANY/A is 4.02 (and 6.50 over the past two outings).
When these two squads faced one another a year ago, Arkansas State won handily 33-7.
Texas State Bobcats vs. Arkansas State Red Wolves NCAA Tip
SU Winner: Texas State, ATS Winner: Texas State, O/U: Over
Team Betting Notes
- The Arkansas State D has sacked opposing quarterbacks 13 times this season. Texas State has produced just four sacks.
- Arkansas State has lost four fumbles in 2019 while the Texas State offense has let two get away.
- The Bobcats offense has created three pass plays of 40 or more yards, while the Red Wolves have put up 13 such plays.
- The Texas State defense has allowed four pass plays of 40 or more yards, while Arkansas State has given up eight such plays.
- The Texas State offense has created eight rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while Arkansas State has created seven such runs.
- The Bobcats defense has allowed 10 rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while the Red Wolves have given up 11 such runs.
- The O/U for Arkansas State’s last match was set at 69. The under cashed in that 37-20 loss to Louisiana.
- Over its last three contests, Arkansas State is 1-2 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.
- The Over/Under for Texas State’s last game going into it was 61. The under cashed in the team’s 24-14 defeat to Louisiana-Monroe.
- Texas State has produced 3.8 yards per carry over its last three games and 3.2 over its last two.
- Arkansas State has averaged 3.7 yards per carry over its last three outings and 4.0 over its past two.
