NCAA Football Free Pick – Southern Miss Golden Eagles at Louisiana Tech Bulldogs

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The Southern Miss Golden Eagles and Louisiana Tech Bulldogs are ready to collide on the turf at Joe Aillet Stadium. This key daytime matchup is scheduled to get underway at 3:30 p.m. ET and NFL Network will televise the action.

Betting Preview: Louisiana Tech Bulldogs vs. Southern Miss Golden Eagles

Southern Miss is a live dog in this one and is currently getting 2 points. The Golden Eagles are also receiving +100 moneyline odds while the Bulldogs are -120. Oddsmakers have placed the over/under (O/U) at 55.5 points, and if one team can create a bunch of points early, it would probably lead to a worthy live betting opportunity.

Betting odds have shifted slightly from when they were initially set. The line opened at 1 and the game’s over/under was originally placed at 56.

Both of these teams have been profitable this season as the Golden Eagles have recorded 1.4 units while the Bulldogs are ahead 2.0 units.

The Golden Eagles are 4-2 straight up (SU), including 2-0 SU against CUSA opponents. The Bulldogs are 5-1 SU overall and 2-0 SU in conference play.

The Golden Eagles are looking to keep things going after a solid 45-27 win over North Texas last week. The Golden Eagles defense allowed the Mean Green to rush for 122 yards on 32 attempts. On the offensive side, Jack Abraham completed 29-of-36 passes for 421 yards and three touchdowns. Kevin Perkins (only 46 rushing yards on 15 attempts) and De’Michael Harris (103 yards on 14 carries, two TDs) led the ground attack while Quez Watkins (eight receptions, 198 yards, one TD) and Tim Jones (seven catches, 66 yards) handled the receiving duties in the win.

Louisiana Tech just got a 69-21 win over Massachusetts. J’mar Smith completed 16-of-28 passes for 239 yards and three touchdowns. Justin Henderson (137 rushing yards on 11 attempts, three TDs) and DeAndre Marcus (99 yards on eight carries, one TD) mounted the running game while Cee Jay Powell (four receptions, 70 yards, one TD) and Adrian Hardy (three catches, 58 yards) led the receiving corps in the win.

Southern Miss has run the ball on 53 percent of its offensive possessions this year while Louisiana Tech has an overall rush percentage of 47.7 percent. The Golden Eagles have run for 113.3 yards per game (including 155 per game against Conference USA opponents) and have seven scores on the ground this year. The Bulldogs are totaling 186 rushing yards per game (179.5 in conference) and have 12 total rush TDs.

If 2019 numbers are any indication, then the Bulldogs may own the advantage in terms of RB effectiveness. Their running backs has generated 5.4 yards per carry while the defense has allowed a YPC of 3.9 to opponents. The Golden Eagles have ran for 3.3 yards per carry while allowing 4.0 YPC to opponents.

The Golden Eagles offensive scheme has averaged 331.2 yards through the air overall (386 per game versus conference opposition) and has 13 passing scores so far. The Bulldogs have produced 281.3 pass yards per contest (250 against CUSA competition) and have 10 total pass TDs.

On the defensive side of the ball, Southern Miss has allowed 122.2 rush yards and 264.3 pass yards per game. The Louisiana Tech defense has allowed 245.7 yards per game to opposing passers and 156.0 yards per game to opposing runners. The Bulldogs are allowing an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of only 5.69 to opposing QBs, while the Golden Eagles have given up an 8.08 ANY/A.

Offensively, Abraham has put up 1,585 passing yards this year, and has connected on 72 percent of his 152 attempts with nine passing scores and four interceptions. He’s got a pristine 9.71 adjusted net yards per pass attempt overall, although that number is 13.63 over the last two games.

J’mar Smith has connected on 113-of-171 passes for 1,347 yards, eight TDs and two INTs for Louisiana Tech. His ANY/A sits at 7.71 for the season and 7.19 across his past two outings.

These two teams met a year ago with the final result being a 21-20 win for Southern Miss.

Southern Miss Golden Eagles at Louisiana Tech Bulldogs Free Pick

SU Winner: Southern Miss, ATS Winner: Southern Miss, O/U: Under

Team Betting Trends

  • The Southern Miss defense has sacked opposing quarterbacks 18 times this year. Louisiana Tech has recorded just 10 sacks.
  • Both offenses have lost four fumbles this year.
  • The Golden Eagles offense has created 13 pass plays of 40+ yards, while the Bulldogs have accounted for six such plays.
  • The Southern Miss defense has allowed seven pass plays of 40+ yards, while Louisiana Tech has given up three such plays.
  • The Southern Miss offense has created three rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while Louisiana Tech has created 10 such runs.
  • The Golden Eagles defense has allowed five rushing plays of 20+ yards, while the Bulldogs have given up four such runs.
  • The O/U for Louisiana Tech’s last outing going into it was 64. The over cashed in the team’s 69-21 victory over Massachusetts.
  • In its last three matchups, Louisiana Tech is 2-1 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.
  • In its last three matches, Southern Miss is 1-2 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
  • The O/U for Southern Miss’ previous game going into it was 59.5. The over cashed in the team’s 45-27 triumph over North Texas.
  • As a team, Southern Miss has averaged 3.4 yards per rush attempt over its past three games and 4.2 over its last two.
  • Louisiana Tech has averaged 7.2 yards per carry over its last three contests and 7.8 over its past two.